Long Trade on PYTH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2491.27 PYTH at 0.0805$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08849 (9.98 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07725 (3.99 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 09:40:14
hyperliquid
PYTH
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 09:40
→ 14:20
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.08046$
Qty 2491.2728 PYTH
Size 200.4478$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.08849 (+9.98%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.07725 (-3.99%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-3.99%
/ -8$
MAE -7.73%
MFE +1.79%
0.5R
expires
02 Oct 21:40
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: )
#52 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Avg Rank 8h:
Quality Score
N/A
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#52 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
N/A
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#52 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | — | — | OK |
| 4h | — | — | OK |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
597,004 $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 09:30
02/10 09:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
— |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4655
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bull
0.90 |
mature
+1 |
| Micro |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
68.3%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 46.8% |
| 1h | 61.3% |
| 4h | 74.2% |
| 24h | 90.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 41.9% | +0.00% |
| 4h | 41.9% | +0.49% |
| 24h | 50.0% | +3.54% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.166
Universe :
62
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 09:31
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
Quality score non disponible pour ce trade.
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.990%
(0.0032)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -1.541% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -2.548% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -3.198% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 659 min
MAE in 299 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.28
Prediction Score: N/A
No context market snapshot
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.9547
- reason: up_bo width=2.90×ATR dur=48b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(+0.07)|ob:obi_moderate(+0.05)
- stop_price: 0.07724879
- tp_price: 0.08848804
- atr:
- score: 0.83468000992607
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T01:40:05.653932
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83468000992607
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0717
- obi_top10 : 0.0856
- micro_price : 0.08066224
- spread_pct : 0.049609
- mid_price : 0.08065
- bid_wall_price : 0.0802
- bid_wall_size : 897037
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0809
- ask_wall_size : 878616.6
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2652
- obi_top5_std : 0.1783
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 8040
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.078911
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.075801
- balance_zone_mid:
0.077356
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790776800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790946000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9007
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
48
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8347
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790942400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.078911
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6042
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.4448
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.00107215 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
48
inside_close_ratio
0.6042
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4448
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:40 | 0.08046000 | 0% |
| 2 | 09:50 | 0.08046000 | 0% |
| 3 | 10:01 | 0.08046000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
8040ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
95%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.072
avg 0.265
± 0.178
OBI Top 10
0.086
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0807
Micro Price
0.0807
Spread
0.0496%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0802
Size
897,037.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0809
Size
878,616.60
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08046 | 0.07725 | 0.08849 | 2.5 | 0.06322 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.08046
- Stop Loss: 0.07725
- Take Profit: 0.08849
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07725 - 0.08046 = -0.00321
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08046 - 0.08849 = -0.00803
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00803 / -0.00321 = 2.5016
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200.4478 | 100 | 2491.2728 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.00321
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00321 = -2492.21
Taille de position USD = -2492.21 x 0.08046 = -200.52
Donc, tu peux acheter -2492.21 avec un stoploss a 0.07725
Avec un position size USD de -200.52$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -2492.21 x -0.00321 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -2492.21 x -0.00803 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position -2492.21
- Taille de position USD -200.52
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5016
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.98 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.99 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -3.99 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1312 % | 103.55 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08046 | 0.07725 | 0.08849 | 2.5 | 0.06322 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.08046
- Stop Loss: 0.07725
- Take Profit: 0.08849
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07725 - 0.08046 = -0.00321
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.08046 - 0.08849 = -0.00803
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00803 / -0.00321 = 2.5016
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.08849
[entry_price] => 0.08046
[stop_loss] => 0.076929
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.08849
[entry_price] => 0.08046
[stop_loss] => 0.076608
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.08849
[entry_price] => 0.08046
[stop_loss] => 0.076287
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.08849
[entry_price] => 0.08046
[stop_loss] => 0.075645
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:35:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.990%
(0.0032)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -1.541% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -2.548% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -3.198% | 0.8R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.290% | 0.1R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.795% | 0.5R | -7.729% | 1.9R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 659 min
MAE in 299 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.