02 Oct 2026 at 10:19:29 hyperliquid

Long Trade on PUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 33384.8 PUMP at 0.00607$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006668 (9.87 %) & Stop Loss: 0.005829 (3.95 %)

PUMP LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 10:19 → 13:35 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 0.006069$

Qty 33384.8016 PUMP

Size 202.6124$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.006668 (+9.87%)

TP $ 20$

SL 0.005829 (-3.95%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.95% / -8.01$ MAE -16.05% MFE +2.24% 0.6R expires 02 Oct 22:19

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172275)
#9 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 10:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7206

Quality Score
0.704
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#9 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#9 / 77
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -1.14×ATR
4h near 0.36×ATR
1d clear —
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↑ up late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
179.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 10:17
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high_confirmed (+3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

02/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 09:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4658
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational bull

0.90

expansion

+1

Tactical bull

0.90

expansion

+1

Micro bull

0.90

expansion

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 57.5%
Macro mixed_dispersion
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : mixed
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 32.3%
1h 40.3%
4h 54.8%
24h 91.9%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 32.3% -0.19%
4h 40.3% +0.19%
24h 58.1% +4.12%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.200
Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 1.00
Snapshot évalué : 02/10 10:16 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.7077
Score SMA
0.6725
Rank
#8 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.9079
Rank Norm SMA
0.6315
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.8911 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.77% · r3d: 18.14% · ema21_slope: 1.6028% · dist_ema21: 25.225%
Force Relative 25% 0.8078 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.24% · rs_3d: 16.49% · beta_24h: 1.226
Volume 20% 0.5995 rvol_20: 1.66× · zscore_50: 0.632 · trend: 78.59%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7902 ADX: 36.4 (trend) · Chop: 39.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.915% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 10:00
Score brut
0.7041
Score SMA
0.6379
Rank
#9 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7206
Rank Norm SMA
0.7684
Calculé le
02/10/2026 10:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7405 r1h: 1.896% · r4h: 4.815% · r1d: 8.31% · r3d: 6.36% · ema21_slope: 0.1496% · dist_ema21: 3.874%
Force Relative 25% 0.7817 rs_1h: 2.197% · rs_4h: 4.581% · rs_1d: 5.20% · rs_3d: 3.56% · beta_24h: 1.558
Volume 20% 0.6185 rvol_20: 1.82× · zscore_50: 1.694 · trend: 20.78%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4859 ADX: 13.5 (weak) · Chop: 53.8 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.917% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.5263
Score SMA
0.6509
Rank
#30 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7702
Rank Norm SMA
0.7346
Calculé le
02/10/2026 08:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7071 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.498% · r1d: 2.50% · r3d: 3.51% · ema21_slope: 0.5832% · dist_ema21: 3.607%
Force Relative 25% 0.5675 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.872% · rs_1d: -0.50% · rs_3d: 1.03% · beta_24h: 1.561
Volume 20% 0.3750 rvol_20: 0.93× · zscore_50: 0.270 · trend: 16.25%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5738 ADX: 35.4 (trend) · Chop: 65.6 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.1127 ATR%: 5.662% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.955% (0.0002)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.450% 0.4R -1.961% 0.5R 0.7× 12
2h +1.549% 0.4R -1.961% 0.5R 0.8× 24
4h +2.241% 0.6R -7.217% 1.8R 0.3× 48
8h +2.241% 0.6R -16.049% 4.1R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +2.241% 0.6R -16.049% 4.1R 0.1× 144
24h +2.241% 0.6R -16.049% 4.1R 0.1× 288
36h +7.102% 1.8R -16.049% 4.1R 0.4× 432
48h +8.535% 2.2R -16.049% 4.1R 0.5× 576
72h +12.292% 3.1R -16.049% 4.1R 0.8× 864
⏱ MFE in 1720 min MAE in 255 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.92
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up range range moderate grind expansion bull_high_confirmed
69%
noisy_chop 42% late — — 0.50 bull_high +13.92% +1.00 30/09 20:00
4h ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong balanced expansion_after_compression bull_high
70%
noisy_chop 37% early — near 0.4ATR 0.28 bull_high +4.41% +0.91 02/10 04:00
1h ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind expansion bull_high_confirmed
62%
noisy_chop 39% mid — near -1.1ATR 0.37 bull_medium_confirmed +2.50% +0.25 02/10 09:00
15m ↑ up range range moderate balanced expansion_after_compression bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 40% mid — near 0.2ATR 0.39 bull_low +0.95% +0.33 02/10 10:00
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#197692
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.690 expansion bull_high_confirmed
69%
noisy_chop 42% late 15b 2.0ATR — — 1.66 94% ↑ +0.68 above_value +0.39 inside #105826 0.50 bull_high +13.92% +1.00
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:26
4h
#202477
↑ up transition bullish_transition strong balanced 0.584 expansion_after_compression bull_high
70%
noisy_chop 37% early 5b 0.6ATR — near 0.4ATR 0.93 89% ↓ -0.27 above_value +0.54 — #107925 0.28 bull_high +4.41% +0.91
02/10 04:00
upd 02/10 08:18
1h anchor
#203241
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.703 expansion bull_high_confirmed
62%
noisy_chop 39% mid 3b 1.3ATR — near -1.1ATR 1.82 92% ↔ +0.12 above_value +1.86 inside #108308 0.37 bull_medium_confirmed +2.50% +0.25
02/10 09:00
upd 02/10 10:12
15m
#203320
↑ up range range moderate balanced 0.533 expansion_after_compression bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 40% mid 6b 1.2ATR — near 0.2ATR 0.54 39% ↑ +0.35 above_value +1.86 — #108308 0.39 bull_low +0.95% +0.33
02/10 10:00
upd 02/10 10:18
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up late 15b — 4.222×ATR p65 +2.021×ATR p90
4h ↑ up early 5b — 1.333×ATR p0 +0.648×ATR p39
1h ↑ up mid 3b — 1.993×ATR p37 +1.349×ATR p70
15m ↓ down mid 6b — 0×ATR p0 +1.238×ATR p74

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.7699
  3. reason: up_bo width=1.75×ATR dur=40b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.00582937
  5. tp_price: 0.00666806
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.76990646263888
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-03T02:19:21.755239
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.76990646263888
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.0548
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0673
  15. micro_price : 0.00602876
  16. spread_pct : 0.049768
  17. mid_price : 0.0060295
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.006
  19. bid_wall_size : 47197364.4
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.00605
  22. ask_wall_size : 61264514.4
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0435
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0963
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7013
  30. aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.005996
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.005697
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.0058465
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790809200
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790949600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    1.7459
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    40
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7699
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790946000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.005996
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.675
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.4263
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    5
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    9
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00017126
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
40
inside_close_ratio
0.675
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4263

Signaux confirmants (7)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 10:19 0.00606900 0%
2 10:30 0.00606900 0%
3 11:17 0.00600100 -1.12%
4 11:28 0.00600100 -1.12%
5 11:39 0.00599900 -1.153%
6 11:49 0.00599900 -1.153%
7 11:59 0.00599900 -1.153%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7013ms Confidence avant OB : 77% → 77%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.055
avg -0.044 ± 0.096
OBI Top 10 0.067

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0060
Micro Price
0.0060
Spread
0.0498%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0060
Size
47,197,364.40

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0061
Size
61,264,514.40

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.006069 0.005829 0.006668 2.5 0.003355
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.006069
  • Stop Loss: 0.005829
  • Take Profit: 0.006668

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.005829 - 0.006069 = -0.00024

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.006069 - 0.006668 = -0.000599

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000599 / -0.00024 = 2.4958

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
202.6124 100 33384.8016 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.00024

Taille de position = 8 / -0.00024 = -33333.33

Taille de position USD = -33333.33 x 0.006069 = -202.3

Donc, tu peux acheter -33333.33 avec un stoploss a 0.005829

Avec un position size USD de -202.3$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -33333.33 x -0.00024 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -33333.33 x -0.000599 = 19.97

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -33333.33
  • Taille de position USD -202.3
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.97
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4958

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
9.87 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.95 % 8.01 $
PNL PNL %
-8.01 $ -3.95
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-4.663 % 117.92 % 11
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.006069 0.005829 0.006668 2.5 0.003355
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.006069
  • Stop Loss: 0.005829
  • Take Profit: 0.006668

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.005829 - 0.006069 = -0.00024

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.006069 - 0.006668 = -0.000599

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.000599 / -0.00024 = 2.4958

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.006668
            [entry_price] => 0.006069
            [stop_loss] => 0.005805
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.006668
            [entry_price] => 0.006069
            [stop_loss] => 0.005781
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.006668
            [entry_price] => 0.006069
            [stop_loss] => 0.005757
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.006668
            [entry_price] => 0.006069
            [stop_loss] => 0.005709
            [rr_ratio] => 1.66
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.955% (0.0002)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.450% 0.4R -1.961% 0.5R 0.7× 12
2h +1.549% 0.4R -1.961% 0.5R 0.8× 24
4h +2.241% 0.6R -7.217% 1.8R 0.3× 48
8h +2.241% 0.6R -16.049% 4.1R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +2.241% 0.6R -16.049% 4.1R 0.1× 144
24h +2.241% 0.6R -16.049% 4.1R 0.1× 288
36h +7.102% 1.8R -16.049% 4.1R 0.4× 432
48h +8.535% 2.2R -16.049% 4.1R 0.5× 576
72h +12.292% 3.1R -16.049% 4.1R 0.8× 864
⏱ MFE in 1720 min MAE in 255 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.