Long Trade on XPL

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02 Oct 2026 at 10:19:45 hyperliquid

Long Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1895.6 XPL at 0.101$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1113 (10.53 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09652 (4.15 %)

XPL LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 10:19 → 10:50 · 30 minutes

Position

Entry 0.1007$

Qty 1895.6043 XPL

Size 190.9632$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.1113 (+10.53%)

TP $ 20.09$

SL 0.09652 (-4.15%)

SL $ 7.92$

RR 2.54

Status loss PnL -4.15% / -7.93$ MAE -11.35% MFE +2.91% 0.7R expires 02 Oct 22:19

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172276)

#11 / 77

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 10:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4944

Quality Score

0.690

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#11 / 77

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

77 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

+10

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.15 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD TRADE

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#11 / 77

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

77 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

+10

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.15 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Supply	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-1.76×ATR
4h	clear	1.87×ATR
1d	near	-0.20×ATR

Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	late	BLOCKED
4h	↑ up	early	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

31.2M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 10:17

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 02/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1) 02/10 09:00 Score : +6 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

02/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 09:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4658

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion +2
Operational	bull 0.90	expansion +1
Tactical	bull 0.90	expansion +1
Micro	bull 0.90	expansion

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) +4

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 57.5%

Macro mixed_dispersion

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : mixed

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	32.3%
1h	40.3%
4h	54.8%
24h	91.9%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	32.3%	-0.19%
4h	40.3%	+0.19%
24h	58.1%	+4.12%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.200

Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 10:16 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4497

Score SMA

0.5883

Rank

#65 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1579

Rank Norm SMA

0.3978

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.5845	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.32% · r3d: -2.19% · ema21_slope: 0.8933% · dist_ema21: 0.215%
Force Relative	25%	0.4075	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.15% · rs_3d: -3.84% · beta_24h: 1.526
Volume	20%	0.4022	rvol_20: 0.81× · zscore_50: 0.261 · trend: 51.36%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6139	ADX: 20.8 (weak) · Chop: 45.5 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 11.560% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 10:00

Score brut

0.6903

Score SMA

0.4863

Rank

#11 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.4944

Rank Norm SMA

0.3120

Calculé le

02/10/2026 10:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6321	r1h: 0.619% · r4h: 2.246% · r1d: 5.04% · r3d: 0.01% · ema21_slope: 0.1588% · dist_ema21: 3.052%
Force Relative	25%	0.5812	rs_1h: 0.920% · rs_4h: 2.012% · rs_1d: 1.93% · rs_3d: -2.78% · beta_24h: 1.723
Volume	20%	1.0000	rvol_20: 3.86× · zscore_50: 3.106 · trend: 100.18%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5974	ADX: 14.7 (weak) · Chop: 41.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.941% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 08:00

Score brut

0.4196

Score SMA

0.4429

Rank

#62 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1052

Rank Norm SMA

0.1951

Calculé le

02/10/2026 08:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4579	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.797% · r1d: 2.42% · r3d: -3.10% · ema21_slope: -0.2325% · dist_ema21: 0.650%
Force Relative	25%	0.3704	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.422% · rs_1d: -0.59% · rs_3d: -5.57% · beta_24h: 2.065
Volume	20%	0.3634	rvol_20: 1.43× · zscore_50: -0.256 · trend: -25.99%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4164	ADX: 20.4 (weak) · Chop: 69.5 (range)
Volatilité	10%	0.5447	ATR%: 4.366% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.151% (0.0042)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.910%	0.7R	-4.188%	1.0R	0.7×	12
2h	+2.910%	0.7R	-4.188%	1.0R	0.7×	24
4h	+2.910%	0.7R	-6.090%	1.5R	0.5×	48
8h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	96
12h ★	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	144
24h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	288
36h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	432
48h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	576
72h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	864

⏱ MFE in 20 min MAE in 265 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.94

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 39%	early	—	near -0.2ATR	0.54	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.54	30/09 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	—	0.48	bull_high	+4.41%	-0.14	02/10 04:00
1h	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	expansion	bull_high_confirmed	60%	noisy_chop 37%	late	—	near -1.8ATR	0.47	bull_medium_confirmed	+2.50%	+0.21	02/10 09:00
15m	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high_confirmed	55%	noisy_chop 40%	early	—	—	0.63	bull_low	+0.95%	+0.36	02/10 10:00
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197694	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.665	expansion_after_compression	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 39%	early 6b 0.0ATR	—	near -0.2ATR	0.81	88%	↑ +0.84	below_value	-8.06	—	#105827	0.54	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.54	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:26
4h #202480	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.609	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early 10b 0.2ATR	—	—	1.43	84%	↔ -0.12	value	+1.44	—	#107926	0.48	bull_high	+4.41%	-0.14	02/10 04:00 upd 02/10 08:18
1h anchor #203242	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.551	expansion	bull_high_confirmed	60%	noisy_chop 37%	late 1b 1.6ATR	—	near -1.8ATR	3.86	89%	↑ +0.52	value	+2.50	—	#108309	0.47	bull_medium_confirmed	+2.50%	+0.21	02/10 09:00 upd 02/10 10:12
15m #203321	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.611	volatile_reversal	bull_high_confirmed	55%	noisy_chop 40%	early 2b 0.9ATR	—	—	0.98	88%	↑ +0.69	value	+2.50	—	#108309	0.63	bull_low	+0.95%	+0.36	02/10 10:00 upd 02/10 10:18
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	6b	—	2.658×ATR	p12	+0.016×ATR	p1
4h	↑ up	early	10b	—	1.866×ATR	p0	+0.159×ATR	p11
1h	↑ up	late	1b	—	1.477×ATR	p2	+1.616×ATR	p87
15m	↓ down	early	2b	—	1.874×ATR	p15	+0.899×ATR	p52

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

long_trend: 1
confidence: 0.7717
reason: up_bo width=1.79×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
stop_price: 0.09651971
tp_price: 0.11129073
atr:
score: 0.77170839366696
expires_at: 2026-10-03T02:19:37.589426
max_bars: 12
max_bars_tf: 1h
confidence_pre_ob: 0.77170839366696

Details

1H:
15m:
5m:
btc_indicators
market_structures
market_structure_v2
trend_analyzer_1h
orderbook_context
obi_top5 : -0.0118
obi_top10 : -0.0118
micro_price : 0.10138208
spread_pct : 0.049329
mid_price : 0.101385
bid_wall_price :
bid_wall_size :
bid_wall_dist_atr :
ask_wall_price : 0.102
ask_wall_size : 6260605.4
ask_wall_dist_atr :
snapshots_count : 5
obi_top5_mean : -0.0101
obi_top5_std : 0.0075
pressure_side : neutral
collection_mode : ws_rolling
collection_ms : 6867
aggregation_tick : 0.001
error :
strategy_details
strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
strategy_details
balance_zone_top:
```
0.0984215
```
balance_zone_bottom:
```
0.095
```
balance_zone_mid:
```
0.09671075
```
balance_zone_start_time:
```
1790834400
```
balance_zone_end_time:
```
1790949600
```
balance_zone_width_atr:
```
1.7909
```
balance_zone_duration_bars:
```
33
```
balance_zone_quality: tight
balance_zone_maturity: established
balance_zone_confidence:
```
0.7717
```
balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
balance_zone_breakout_time:
```
1790931600
```
balance_zone_breakout_price:
```
0.0984215
```
strategy_details
balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
```
0.6667
```
balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
```
5
```
balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
```
1.2136
```
balance_metrics_has_retested:
```
1
```
balance_metrics_retest_count:
```
2
```
balance_metrics_touch_upper:
```
5
```
balance_metrics_touch_lower:
```
9
```
regime : bull_high
atr_entry : 0.00191044

Signal Details

duration_bars

inside_close_ratio

0.6667

bars_since_breakout

distance_to_edge_atr

1.2136

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	10:19	0.10074000	+0.04%
2	10:31	0.10074000	+0.04%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6867ms Confidence avant OB : 77% → 77%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.012

avg -0.010 ± 0.008

OBI Top 10 -0.012

Microstructure

Mid Price

0.1014

Micro Price

0.1014

Spread

0.0493%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price

0.1020

Size

6,260,605.40

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.1007	0.09652	0.1113	2.54	0.04967

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.1007
Stop Loss: 0.09652
Take Profit: 0.1113

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09652 - 0.1007 = -0.00418
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.1007 - 0.1113 = -0.0106
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0106 / -0.00418 = 2.5359

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
190.9632	100	1895.6043	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss -0.00418

Taille de position = 8 / -0.00418 = -1913.88

Taille de position USD = -1913.88 x 0.1007 = -192.73

Donc, tu peux acheter -1913.88 avec un stoploss a 0.09652

Avec un position size USD de -192.73$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -1913.88 x -0.00418 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -1913.88 x -0.0106 = 20.29

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.29$

Résumé

Taille de position -1913.88
Taille de position USD -192.73
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 20.29
Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5359

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
10.53 %	20.09 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.15 %	7.92 $

PNL	PNL %
-7.93 $	-4.15

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-4.1877 %	100.89 %	2

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.1007	0.09652	0.1113	2.54	0.04967

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.1007
Stop Loss: 0.09652
Take Profit: 0.1113

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.09652 - 0.1007 = -0.00418
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.1007 - 0.1113 = -0.0106
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0106 / -0.00418 = 2.5359

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.1113
            [entry_price] => 0.1007
            [stop_loss] => 0.096102
            [rr_ratio] => 2.31
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.1113
            [entry_price] => 0.1007
            [stop_loss] => 0.095684
            [rr_ratio] => 2.11
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 17:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.1113
            [entry_price] => 0.1007
            [stop_loss] => 0.095266
            [rr_ratio] => 1.95
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.1113
            [entry_price] => 0.1007
            [stop_loss] => 0.09443
            [rr_ratio] => 1.69
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:20:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -4.151% (0.0042)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+2.910%	0.7R	-4.188%	1.0R	0.7×	12
2h	+2.910%	0.7R	-4.188%	1.0R	0.7×	24
4h	+2.910%	0.7R	-6.090%	1.5R	0.5×	48
8h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	96
12h ★	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	144
24h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	288
36h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	432
48h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	576
72h	+2.910%	0.7R	-11.349%	2.7R	0.3×	864

⏱ MFE in 20 min MAE in 265 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.