02 Oct 2026 at 10:38:28 hyperliquid

Long Trade on ADA (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1145.61 ADA at 0.253$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2706 (6.91 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2461 (2.77 %)

ADA LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 10:38 → 14:25 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 0.2531$

Qty 1145.6132 ADA

Size 289.9661$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.2706 (+6.91%)

TP $ 20.05$

SL 0.2461 (-2.77%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.77% / -8.02$ MAE -6.45% MFE +0.91% 0.3R expires 02 Oct 22:38

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172241)
#39 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 10:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6601

Quality Score
0.580
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#39 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#39 / 77
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.32×ATR
4h near -1.17×ATR
1d clear 1.48×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
12.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 10:30
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

02/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1)

02/10 09:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4659
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

+2

Operational bull

0.90

expansion

+1

Tactical bull

0.90

expansion

+1

Micro bull

0.90

expansion

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) +4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 57.5%
Macro mixed_dispersion
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : mixed
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 59.7%
1h 40.3%
4h 54.8%
24h 91.9%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 69.4% +0.04%
4h 40.3% +0.19%
24h 58.1% +4.12%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.200
Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 1.00
Snapshot évalué : 02/10 10:31 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5341
Score SMA
0.5798
Rank
#44 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4342
Rank Norm SMA
0.4058
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.7219 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.19% · r3d: -0.41% · ema21_slope: 1.0091% · dist_ema21: 4.599%
Force Relative 25% 0.5199 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.66% · rs_3d: -2.07% · beta_24h: 1.500
Volume 20% 0.3881 rvol_20: 1.04× · zscore_50: 0.148 · trend: 19.10%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7326 ADX: 34.2 (trend) · Chop: 44.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 6.209% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 10:00
Score brut
0.5801
Score SMA
0.5229
Rank
#39 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6601
Rank Norm SMA
0.4821
Calculé le
02/10/2026 10:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5584 r1h: -0.564% · r4h: -0.537% · r1d: 3.26% · r3d: 1.52% · ema21_slope: 0.1863% · dist_ema21: 1.265%
Force Relative 25% 0.4643 rs_1h: -0.263% · rs_4h: -0.771% · rs_1d: 0.15% · rs_3d: -1.28% · beta_24h: 2.052
Volume 20% 0.5071 rvol_20: 1.42× · zscore_50: 0.269 · trend: 56.64%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6337 ADX: 21.2 (weak) · Chop: 43.5 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.339% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 08:00
Score brut
0.6400
Score SMA
0.5550
Rank
#10 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7395
Rank Norm SMA
0.5488
Calculé le
02/10/2026 08:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6004 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.008% · r1d: 2.62% · r3d: 0.61% · ema21_slope: 0.0468% · dist_ema21: 2.585%
Force Relative 25% 0.4588 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.366% · rs_1d: -0.39% · rs_3d: -1.86% · beta_24h: 2.254
Volume 20% 0.9265 rvol_20: 3.41× · zscore_50: 2.712 · trend: 59.24%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3993 ADX: 17.3 (weak) · Chop: 68.4 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.720% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.766% (0.0070)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.913% 0.3R -0.889% 0.3R 1.0× 12
2h +0.913% 0.3R -0.889% 0.3R 1.0× 24
4h +0.913% 0.3R -5.555% 2.0R 0.2× 48
8h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 144
24h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 288
36h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 432
48h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 576
72h +9.431% 3.4R -6.452% 2.3R 1.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 6 min MAE in 246 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.01
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up range range moderate grind expansion bull_high
64%
noisy_chop 39% early — — 0.79 bull_high +13.92% +0.68 30/09 20:00
4h ↑ up range range strong balanced compression bull_high
59%
noisy_chop 32% early — near -1.2ATR 0.69 bull_high +4.41% +0.12 02/10 04:00
1h ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind compression bull_high
57%
noisy_chop 41% mid — near -0.3ATR 0.71 bull_medium_confirmed +2.50% +0.02 02/10 09:00
15m ↑ up transition bullish_transition weak grind expansion bull_medium
57%
noisy_chop 36% early near 0.3ATR — 0.79 range_low +0.62% -0.04 02/10 10:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#197595
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.614 expansion bull_high
64%
noisy_chop 39% early 15b 0.6ATR — — 1.04 83% ↑ +0.48 value +0.29 — #105791 0.79 bull_high +13.92% +0.68
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:21
4h
#202393
↑ up range range strong balanced 0.573 compression bull_high
59%
noisy_chop 32% early 10b 0.9ATR — near -1.2ATR 3.41 100% ↔ +0.11 above_value +3.05 — #107891 0.69 bull_high +4.41% +0.12
02/10 04:00
upd 02/10 08:14
1h anchor
#203207
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.653 compression bull_high
57%
noisy_chop 41% mid 12b 0.9ATR — near -0.3ATR 1.42 88% ↑ +0.85 above_value +3.07 — #108273 0.71 bull_medium_confirmed +2.50% +0.02
02/10 09:00
upd 02/10 10:10
15m
#203365
↑ up transition bullish_transition weak grind 0.528 expansion bull_medium
57%
noisy_chop 36% early 3b -0.9ATR near 0.3ATR — 1.46 90% ↔ -0.04 above_value +3.07 — #108273 0.79 range_low +0.62% -0.04
02/10 10:15
upd 02/10 10:31
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 15b — 3.663×ATR p48 +0.616×ATR p39
4h ↑ up early 10b — 2.021×ATR p0 +0.916×ATR p54
1h ↑ up mid 12b — 3.456×ATR p78 +0.917×ATR p55
15m ↓ down early 3b — 2.684×ATR p46 -0.921×ATR p50

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.7977
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.04×ATR dur=48b phase=extending
  4. stop_price: 0.24612684
  5. tp_price: 0.27056791
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.79773317237229
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-03T02:38:20.873358
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.79773317237229
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.0328
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0264
  15. micro_price : 0.25321522
  16. spread_pct : 0.039494
  17. mid_price : 0.25325
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.25
  19. bid_wall_size : 4682575
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.256
  22. ask_wall_size : 5999346.6
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.0388
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0047
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7081
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.25002
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.24293
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.246475
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790780400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790949600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.0364
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    48
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7977
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790913600
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.25002
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.6458
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    10
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.8875
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    7
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    7
  59. regime : bull_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00348164
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
48
inside_close_ratio
0.6458
bars_since_breakout
10
distance_to_edge_atr
0.8875

Signaux confirmants (19)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 10:38 0.25311000 +0.004%
2 10:48 0.25311000 +0.004%
3 11:00 0.25311000 +0.004%
4 11:13 0.25174000 -0.537%
5 11:23 0.25174000 -0.537%
6 11:34 0.25174000 -0.537%
7 11:45 0.25202000 -0.427%
8 11:55 0.25202000 -0.427%
9 12:07 0.25345000 +0.138%
10 12:20 0.25345000 +0.138%
11 12:30 0.25345000 +0.138%
12 12:41 0.25292000 -0.071%
13 12:51 0.25292000 -0.071%
14 13:01 0.25292000 -0.071%
15 13:12 0.25291000 -0.075%
16 13:24 0.25291000 -0.075%
17 13:35 0.25122000 -0.743%
18 13:46 0.25122000 -0.743%
19 13:56 0.25122000 -0.743%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7081ms Confidence avant OB : 80% → 80%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.033
avg 0.039 ± 0.005
OBI Top 10 -0.026

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.2533
Micro Price
0.2532
Spread
0.0395%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.2500
Size
4,682,575.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.2560
Size
5,999,346.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2531 0.2461 0.2706 2.5 0.1683
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2531
  • Stop Loss: 0.2461
  • Take Profit: 0.2706

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2461 - 0.2531 = -0.007

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2531 - 0.2706 = -0.0175

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0175 / -0.007 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
289.9661 100 1145.6132 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.007

Taille de position = 8 / -0.007 = -1142.86

Taille de position USD = -1142.86 x 0.2531 = -289.26

Donc, tu peux acheter -1142.86 avec un stoploss a 0.2461

Avec un position size USD de -289.26$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -1142.86 x -0.007 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -1142.86 x -0.0175 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -1142.86
  • Taille de position USD -289.26
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
6.91 % 20.05 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.77 % 8.02 $
PNL PNL %
-8.02 $ -2.77
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-2.904 % 105 % 13
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.2531 0.2461 0.2706 2.5 0.1683
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.2531
  • Stop Loss: 0.2461
  • Take Profit: 0.2706

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.2461 - 0.2531 = -0.007

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.2531 - 0.2706 = -0.0175

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0175 / -0.007 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2706
            [entry_price] => 0.2531
            [stop_loss] => 0.2454
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2706
            [entry_price] => 0.2531
            [stop_loss] => 0.2447
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2706
            [entry_price] => 0.2531
            [stop_loss] => 0.244
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.2706
            [entry_price] => 0.2531
            [stop_loss] => 0.2426
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 18:35:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.766% (0.0070)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.913% 0.3R -0.889% 0.3R 1.0× 12
2h +0.913% 0.3R -0.889% 0.3R 1.0× 24
4h +0.913% 0.3R -5.555% 2.0R 0.2× 48
8h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 144
24h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 288
36h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 432
48h +0.913% 0.3R -6.452% 2.3R 0.1× 576
72h +9.431% 3.4R -6.452% 2.3R 1.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 6 min MAE in 246 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.