Short Trade on NIL

Previous Trade Next Trade

02 Oct 2026 at 12:15:09 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 2161.34 NIL at 0.0801$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07812 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08382 (4.62 %)

NIL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 12:15 → 13:40 · 1 hour

Position

Entry 0.08012$

Qty 2161.3444 NIL

Size 173.1647$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.07812 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.32$

SL 0.08382 (-4.62%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.54

Status win PnL +2.50% / +4.32$ MAE -4.01% MFE +3.67% 0.8R expires 02 Oct 18:15

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172429)

#74 / 78

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 12:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1691

Quality Score

0.449

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#74 / 78

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-4

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-4

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-8

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.62 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#74 / 78

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-8

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.62 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	-0.25×ATR
4h	near	-1.41×ATR
1d	clear	2.57×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	early	OK
4h	↓ down	early	OK
1d	↓ down	mid	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-4

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

alts

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-4

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

-0.38

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

1.1M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 12:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 02/10 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/10 10:00 Score : -4 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

02/10 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

02/10 10:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4665

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.90	early_expansion -1
Tactical	bull 0.90	expansion -1
Micro	range 0.25	range

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -4

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 50.0%

Macro mixed_dispersion

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	53.2%
1h	41.9%
4h	33.9%
24h	79.0%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	61.3%	+0.00%
4h	71.0%	-0.38%
24h	58.1%	+2.35%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.159

Universe : 62 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 12:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4369

Score SMA

0.5943

Rank

#68 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1184

Rank Norm SMA

0.4184

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4959	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.18% · r3d: -5.04% · ema21_slope: 5.8465% · dist_ema21: 8.435%
Force Relative	25%	0.3860	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.66% · rs_3d: -6.70% · beta_24h: 0.598
Volume	20%	0.2881	rvol_20: 0.25× · zscore_50: -0.252 · trend: 28.68%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8937	ADX: 47.2 (trend) · Chop: 14.6 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 18.282% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.4486

Score SMA

0.4218

Rank

#74 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1691

Rank Norm SMA

0.1715

Calculé le

02/10/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2649	r1h: -1.324% · r4h: -2.271% · r1d: -5.25% · r3d: 2.65% · ema21_slope: -0.1849% · dist_ema21: -2.585%
Force Relative	25%	0.3567	rs_1h: -0.914% · rs_4h: -1.019% · rs_1d: -6.67% · rs_3d: -0.08% · beta_24h: 0.805
Volume	20%	0.4954	rvol_20: 1.92× · zscore_50: -0.008 · trend: 1.07%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.3863	ADX: 10.3 (weak) · Chop: 62.8 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.983% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 12:00

Score brut

0.2917

Score SMA

0.3882

Rank

#77 / 78

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0066

Rank Norm SMA

0.1125

Calculé le

02/10/2026 12:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3319	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.271% · r1d: -5.25% · r3d: 2.65% · ema21_slope: -0.4224% · dist_ema21: -6.104%
Force Relative	25%	0.2698	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.019% · rs_1d: -6.67% · rs_3d: -0.08% · beta_24h: 3.072
Volume	20%	0.1924	rvol_20: 0.67× · zscore_50: -0.527 · trend: -70.62%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4557	ADX: 14.5 (weak) · Chop: 58.6 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 6.549% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.618% (0.0037)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.531%	0.1R	-2.217%	0.5R	0.2×	12
2h	+2.872%	0.6R	-2.217%	0.5R	1.3×	24
4h	+3.667%	0.8R	-2.217%	0.5R	1.7×	48
6h ★	+3.667%	0.8R	-4.008%	0.9R	0.9×	72
8h	+3.667%	0.8R	-4.797%	1.0R	0.8×	96
12h	+3.667%	0.8R	-5.181%	1.1R	0.7×	144
24h	+3.667%	0.8R	-7.373%	1.6R	0.5×	288
48h	+3.667%	0.8R	-13.390%	2.9R	0.3×	576
72h	+3.667%	0.8R	-35.821%	7.8R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 139 min MAE in 1279 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 1.66

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	volatile_reversal	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 45%	mid	—	—	0.30	bull_high	+13.92%	+1.00	30/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 36%	early	near -1.4ATR	—	0.13	bull_high	+4.41%	-0.37	02/10 04:00
1h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 39%	early	near -0.2ATR	—	0.10	bull_medium	+1.44%	-0.31	02/10 10:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	volatile_reversal	bear_high	50%	noisy_chop 43%	late	near -0.9ATR	—	0.20	range_low	-0.22%	+0.06	02/10 11:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197683	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.820	volatile_reversal	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 45%	mid 7b 0.3ATR	—	—	0.25	84%	↑ +0.98	below_value	-13.26	—	#105822	0.30	bull_high	+13.92%	+1.00	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:25
4h #202468	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.489	compression	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 36%	early 11b -0.8ATR	near -1.4ATR	—	0.55	68%	↓ -0.79	above_value	-3.03	—	#107922	0.13	bull_high	+4.41%	-0.37	02/10 04:00 upd 02/10 08:17
1h anchor #203631	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.499	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 39%	early 1b -0.9ATR	near -0.2ATR	—	1.85	30%	↑ +0.76	above_value	-1.16	—	#108462	0.10	bull_medium	+1.44%	-0.31	02/10 10:00 upd 02/10 11:11
15m #203949	↓ down	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.518	volatile_reversal	bear_high	50%	noisy_chop 43%	late 10b -1.3ATR	near -0.9ATR	—	0.17	27%	↔ +0.03	above_value	-1.16	—	#108462	0.20	range_low	-0.22%	+0.06	02/10 11:45 upd 02/10 12:04
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	mid	7b	—	4.316×ATR	p50	+0.301×ATR	p25
4h	↓ down	early	11b	—	3.262×ATR	p44	-0.774×ATR	p43
1h	↓ down	early	1b	—	1.833×ATR	p14	-0.878×ATR	p45
15m	↓ down	late	10b	—	5.112×ATR	p89	-1.305×ATR	p69

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.0838204
tp_price: 0.07811602
atr: 0.00148056
expires_at: 2026-10-02T22:15:09+00:00

Details

rank: 76
total: 79
score: 0.3141
delta_2h: -0.1118
extension_atr: -1.24
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.174
confidence: 0.962

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	12:15	0.08011900	-0.001%
2	13:15	0.08068000	+0.699%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.08012	0.08382	0.07812	0.54	0.05436

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.08012
Stop Loss: 0.08382
Take Profit: 0.07812

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08382 - 0.08012 = 0.0037
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.08012 - 0.07812 = 0.002
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.002 / 0.0037 = 0.5405

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
173.1647	100	2161.3444	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.0037

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0037 = 2162.16

Taille de position USD = 2162.16 x 0.08012 = 173.23

Donc, tu peux acheter 2162.16 avec un stoploss a 0.08382

Avec un position size USD de 173.23$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2162.16 x 0.0037 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2162.16 x 0.002 = 4.32

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.32$

Résumé

Taille de position 2162.16
Taille de position USD 173.23
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.32
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5405

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.32 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.62 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
4.32 $	2.50

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.2167 %	48 %	5

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.08012	0.08382	0.07812	0.54	0.05436

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.08012
Stop Loss: 0.08382
Take Profit: 0.07812

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.08382 - 0.08012 = 0.0037
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.08012 - 0.07812 = 0.002
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.002 / 0.0037 = 0.5405

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
(
)

Extra SL data


                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.618% (0.0037)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.531%	0.1R	-2.217%	0.5R	0.2×	12
2h	+2.872%	0.6R	-2.217%	0.5R	1.3×	24
4h	+3.667%	0.8R	-2.217%	0.5R	1.7×	48
6h ★	+3.667%	0.8R	-4.008%	0.9R	0.9×	72
8h	+3.667%	0.8R	-4.797%	1.0R	0.8×	96
12h	+3.667%	0.8R	-5.181%	1.1R	0.7×	144
24h	+3.667%	0.8R	-7.373%	1.6R	0.5×	288
48h	+3.667%	0.8R	-13.390%	2.9R	0.3×	576
72h	+3.667%	0.8R	-35.821%	7.8R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 139 min MAE in 1279 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.