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Short Trade on NIL

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02 Oct 2026 at 15:09:00 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1925.92 NIL at 0.0802$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06978 (12.95 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08431 (5.18 %)

NIL SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 15:09 → 01:45 · 10 hours

Position

Entry 0.08016$

Qty 1925.9241 NIL

Size 154.3821$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.06978 (+12.95%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.08431 (-5.18%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -5.18% / -7.99$ MAE -6.02% MFE +1.10% 0.2R expires 03 Oct 03:08

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172743)
#72 / 82
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2957

Quality Score
0.450
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#72 / 82
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.18 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#72 / 82
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.18 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.62×ATR
4h near -1.79×ATR
1d clear 2.57×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
1.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 15:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/10 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 13:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4677
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational bull

0.90

early_expansion

-1

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro bear

0.90

transition

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 10.1%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 77.8%
1h 1.6%
4h 3.2%
24h 23.8%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 63.5% +0.12%
4h 15.9% -2.94%
24h 28.6% -1.85%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.267
Universe : 63 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 1.00
Snapshot évalué : 02/10 15:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4369
Score SMA
0.5943
Rank
#68 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1184
Rank Norm SMA
0.4184
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4959 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.18% · r3d: -5.04% · ema21_slope: 5.8465% · dist_ema21: 8.435%
Force Relative 25% 0.3860 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.66% · rs_3d: -6.70% · beta_24h: 0.598
Volume 20% 0.2881 rvol_20: 0.25× · zscore_50: -0.252 · trend: 28.68%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8937 ADX: 47.2 (trend) · Chop: 14.6 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 18.282% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.4497
Score SMA
0.4197
Rank
#72 / 82
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2957
Rank Norm SMA
0.1697
Calculé le
02/10/2026 15:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3101 r1h: 0.415% · r4h: -1.786% · r1d: -3.89% · r3d: -4.01% · ema21_slope: -0.2015% · dist_ema21: -2.299%
Force Relative 25% 0.4613 rs_1h: 1.054% · rs_4h: -0.110% · rs_1d: -3.26% · rs_3d: -4.74% · beta_24h: 0.678
Volume 20% 0.8327 rvol_20: 2.90× · zscore_50: 1.130 · trend: 80.14%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5530 ADX: 12.5 (weak) · Chop: 44.6 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.234% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.2739
Score SMA
0.3877
Rank
#78 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0066
Rank Norm SMA
0.1122
Calculé le
02/10/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3319 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.271% · r1d: -5.25% · r3d: 2.65% · ema21_slope: -0.4224% · dist_ema21: -6.104%
Force Relative 25% 0.2698 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.019% · rs_1d: -6.67% · rs_3d: -0.08% · beta_24h: 3.072
Volume 20% 0.1924 rvol_20: 0.67× · zscore_50: -0.527 · trend: -70.62%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4557 ADX: 14.5 (weak) · Chop: 58.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 6.549% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -5.177% (0.0042)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.097% 0.2R -0.477% 0.1R 2.3× 12
2h +1.097% 0.2R -2.348% 0.5R 0.5× 24
4h +1.097% 0.2R -3.956% 0.8R 0.3× 48
8h +1.097% 0.2R -4.744% 0.9R 0.2× 96
12h ★ +1.097% 0.2R -6.023% 1.2R 0.2× 144
24h +1.097% 0.2R -7.319% 1.4R 0.2× 288
36h +1.097% 0.2R -11.360% 2.2R 0.1× 432
48h +1.097% 0.2R -13.562% 2.6R 0.1× 576
72h +1.097% 0.2R -45.709% 8.8R 0.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 6 min MAE in 2156 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.55
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 45% mid — — 0.30 bull_high +13.92% +1.00 30/09 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 36% mid near -1.8ATR — 0.13 bull_high +3.04% -0.46 02/10 08:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal bear_high_confirmed
56%
noisy_chop 44% mid — — 0.11 range_medium +0.34% -0.58 02/10 13:00
15m ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition strong explosive expansion_after_compression bear_high
64%
noisy_chop 43% early — — 0.28 bear_low_confirmed -1.32% -0.04 02/10 14:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#197683
 ↑ up transition bullish_transition strong explosive 0.820 volatile_reversal bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 45% mid 7b 0.3ATR — — 0.25 84% ↑ +0.98 below_value -13.26 — #105822 0.30 bull_high +13.92% +1.00
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:25
4h
#204112
 ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.494 compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 36% mid 12b -1.1ATR near -1.8ATR — 0.67 72% ↓ -0.80 above_value -1.55 — #108620 0.13 bull_high +3.04% -0.46
02/10 08:00
upd 02/10 12:18
1h anchor
#204886
 ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.496 normal bear_high_confirmed
56%
noisy_chop 44% mid 4b -1.5ATR — — 5.30 74% ↑ +0.86 above_value -1.68 — #109015 0.11 range_medium +0.34% -0.58
02/10 13:00
upd 02/10 14:12
15m
#205195
 ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition strong explosive 0.386 expansion_after_compression bear_high
64%
noisy_chop 43% early 1b -0.4ATR — — 0.46 74% ↑ +0.22 above_value -1.68 — #109015 0.28 bear_low_confirmed -1.32% -0.04
02/10 14:45
upd 02/10 15:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 7b — 4.316×ATR p50 +0.301×ATR p25
4h ↓ down mid 12b — 3.671×ATR p52 -1.113×ATR p57
1h ↓ down mid 4b — 2.753×ATR p52 -1.495×ATR p65
15m ↑ up early 1b — 2.338×ATR p13 -0.414×ATR p31

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.764
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.67×ATR dur=48b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.08431385
  5. tp_price: 0.06977537
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.764044393395
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-03T07:08:52.765011
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.764044393395
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.0082
  10. obi_top10 : 0.0614
  11. micro_price : 0.08017085
  12. spread_pct : 0.087358
  13. mid_price : 0.080165
  14. bid_wall_price : 0.0796
  15. bid_wall_size : 434479
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 0.0808
  18. ask_wall_size : 394111.6
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.0088
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0219
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7150
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.0864025
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.0818875
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.084145
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1790798400
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1790967600
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.6739
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    48
  38. balance_zone_quality: drifting
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.764
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1790949600
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.0818875
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.6875
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    5
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    1.0231
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    6
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    8
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.00168853
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
48
inside_close_ratio
0.6875
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0231

Signaux confirmants (6)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 15:09 0.08016000 0%
2 15:19 0.08016000 0%
3 15:30 0.08016000 0%
4 15:41 0.08006300 -0.121%
5 15:51 0.08006300 -0.121%
6 16:03 0.08006300 -0.121%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7150ms Confidence avant OB : 76% → 76%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.008
avg -0.009 ± 0.022
OBI Top 10 0.061

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0802
Micro Price
0.0802
Spread
0.0874%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0796
Size
434,479.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0808
Size
394,111.60

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08016 0.08431 0.06978 2.5 0.05124
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08016
  • Stop Loss: 0.08431
  • Take Profit: 0.06978

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.08431 - 0.08016 = 0.00415

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08016 - 0.06978 = 0.01038

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01038 / 0.00415 = 2.5012

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
154.3821 100 1925.9241 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00415

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00415 = 1927.71

Taille de position USD = 1927.71 x 0.08016 = 154.53

Donc, tu peux acheter 1927.71 avec un stoploss a 0.08431

Avec un position size USD de 154.53$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1927.71 x 0.00415 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1927.71 x 0.01038 = 20.01

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1927.71
  • Taille de position USD 154.53
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.01
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5012

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
12.95 % 19.99 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
5.18 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-7.99 $ -5.18
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-6.023 % 116.34 % 8
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08016 0.08431 0.06978 2.5 0.05124
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08016
  • Stop Loss: 0.08431
  • Take Profit: 0.06978

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.08431 - 0.08016 = 0.00415

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08016 - 0.06978 = 0.01038

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01038 / 0.00415 = 2.5012

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -5.177% (0.0042)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.097% 0.2R -0.477% 0.1R 2.3× 12
2h +1.097% 0.2R -2.348% 0.5R 0.5× 24
4h +1.097% 0.2R -3.956% 0.8R 0.3× 48
8h +1.097% 0.2R -4.744% 0.9R 0.2× 96
12h ★ +1.097% 0.2R -6.023% 1.2R 0.2× 144
24h +1.097% 0.2R -7.319% 1.4R 0.2× 288
36h +1.097% 0.2R -11.360% 2.2R 0.1× 432
48h +1.097% 0.2R -13.562% 2.6R 0.1× 576
72h +1.097% 0.2R -45.709% 8.8R 0.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 6 min MAE in 2156 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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