Short Trade on XPL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1338.91 XPL at 0.0906$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07571 (16.48 %) & Stop Loss: 0.09662 (6.59 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 15:09:32
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 15:09
→ 03:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.09065$
Qty 1338.9077 XPL
Size 121.3693$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07571 (+16.48%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.09662 (-6.59%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.66%
/ -3.23$
MAE -4.18%
MFE +1.30%
0.2R
expires
03 Oct 03:09
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 172746)
#76 / 82
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 15:00
score du 02/10/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6429
Quality Score
0.428
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#76 / 82
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#76 / 82
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
73 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.59 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.96×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.60×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.57×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
46.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 15:02
02/10 15:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 02/10 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/10 13:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4677
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.90 |
early_expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
10.1%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 77.8% |
| 1h | 1.6% |
| 4h | 3.2% |
| 24h | 23.8% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 63.5% | +0.12% |
| 4h | 15.9% | -2.94% |
| 24h | 28.6% | -1.85% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.267
Universe :
63
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 15:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4497
Score SMA
0.5883
Rank
#65
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1579
Rank Norm SMA
0.3978
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5845 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.32% · r3d: -2.19% · ema21_slope: 0.8933% · dist_ema21: 0.215% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4075 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.15% · rs_3d: -3.84% · beta_24h: 1.526 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4022 | rvol_20: 0.81× · zscore_50: 0.261 · trend: 51.36% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6139 | ADX: 20.8 (weak) · Chop: 45.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.560% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.4284
Score SMA
0.4829
Rank
#76
/ 82
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6429
Rank Norm SMA
0.3056
Calculé le
02/10/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3439 | r1h: -5.825% · r4h: -8.359% · r1d: -5.99% · r3d: -7.93% · ema21_slope: 0.0600% · dist_ema21: -6.422% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1109 | rs_1h: -5.185% · rs_4h: -6.682% · rs_1d: -5.35% · rs_3d: -8.66% · beta_24h: 2.126 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 3.51× · zscore_50: 3.262 · trend: 127.91% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6268 | ADX: 15.2 (weak) · Chop: 25.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9647 | ATR%: 3.106% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5629
Score SMA
0.4396
Rank
#34
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3844
Rank Norm SMA
0.1930
Calculé le
02/10/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5201 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.100% · r1d: 5.43% · r3d: 0.22% · ema21_slope: -0.1821% · dist_ema21: 1.595% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5066 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.351% · rs_1d: 4.01% · rs_3d: -2.51% · beta_24h: 1.535 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7923 | rvol_20: 3.09× · zscore_50: 1.310 · trend: 28.69% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4833 | ADX: 20.0 (weak) · Chop: 60.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4924 | ATR%: 4.523% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.586%
(0.0060)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -0.802% | 0.1R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -1.489% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -2.196% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -4.181% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.304% | 0.2R | -4.181% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -6.724% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -6.724% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -7.501% | 1.1R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -7.606% | 1.2R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 10 min
MAE in 1330 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.91
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.54 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.54 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | — | 0.48 | bull_high | +3.04% | -0.29 | 02/10 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
46%
|
noisy_chop 32% | mid | near -1.0ATR | near 0.2ATR | 0.47 | range_medium | +0.34% | +0.15 | 02/10 13:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.59 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.32% | -0.63 | 02/10 14:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197694
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.665 | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 6b 0.0ATR | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.81 | 88% | ↑ +0.84 | below_value | -8.06 | — | #105827 | 0.54 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.54 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#204124
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.630 | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early 11b 0.4ATR | — | — | 3.09 | 97% | ↔ +0.10 | above_value | +1.41 | — | #108624 | 0.48 | bull_high | +3.04% | -0.29 |
02/10 08:00
upd 02/10 12:19
|
|
1h
anchor #204890
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.651 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
46%
|
noisy_chop 32% | mid 3b -0.5ATR | near -1.0ATR | near 0.2ATR | 1.33 | 68% | ↑ +0.80 | above_value | +0.37 | — | #109019 | 0.47 | range_medium | +0.34% | +0.15 |
02/10 13:00
upd 02/10 14:12
|
|
15m
#205198
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | 0.440 | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 17b -3.5ATR | near -0.1ATR | — | 3.35 | 100% | ↔ +0.13 | above_value | +0.37 | — | #109019 | 0.59 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.32% | -0.63 |
02/10 14:45
upd 02/10 15:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 2.658×ATR | p12 | +0.016×ATR | p1 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 11b | — | 2.022×ATR | p3 | +0.368×ATR | p27 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.834×ATR | p60 | -0.472×ATR | p32 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 17b | — | 6.881×ATR | p96 | -3.514×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7262
- reason: down_bo width=1.30×ATR dur=37b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.09662302
- tp_price: 0.07571045
- atr:
- score: 0.72620753645541
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T07:09:25.126227
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.72620753645541
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0157
- obi_top10 : 0.0379
- micro_price : 0.09035337
- spread_pct : 0.022139
- mid_price : 0.09035
- bid_wall_price : 0.0895
- bid_wall_size : 1654094
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0912
- ask_wall_size : 1968033
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0069
- obi_top5_std : 0.0066
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6933
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.09809
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.0946225
- balance_zone_mid:
0.09635625
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790838000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790967600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.2998
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
37
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7262
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790964000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.0946225
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6216
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.4899
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
13
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00266772 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
37
inside_close_ratio
0.6216
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4899
Signaux confirmants (11)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:09 | 0.09064800 | -0.002% |
| 2 | 15:20 | 0.09064800 | -0.002% |
| 3 | 15:30 | 0.09064800 | -0.002% |
| 4 | 15:41 | 0.09063200 | -0.02% |
| 5 | 15:52 | 0.09063200 | -0.02% |
| 6 | 16:03 | 0.09063200 | -0.02% |
| 7 | 16:17 | 0.09158500 | +1.031% |
| 8 | 16:27 | 0.09158500 | +1.031% |
| 9 | 16:38 | 0.09196600 | +1.452% |
| 10 | 16:48 | 0.09196600 | +1.452% |
| 11 | 16:58 | 0.09196600 | +1.452% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6933ms
Confidence avant OB :
73%
→
73%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.016
avg 0.007
± 0.007
OBI Top 10
0.038
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0904
Micro Price
0.0904
Spread
0.0221%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0895
Size
1,654,094.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0912
Size
1,968,033.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09065 | 0.09662 | 0.07571 | 2.5 | 0.04733 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.09065
- Stop Loss: 0.09662
- Take Profit: 0.07571
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.09662 - 0.09065 = 0.00597
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.09065 - 0.07571 = 0.01494
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01494 / 0.00597 = 2.5025
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121.3693 | 100 | 1338.9077 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00597
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00597 = 1340.03
Taille de position USD = 1340.03 x 0.09065 = 121.47
Donc, tu peux acheter 1340.03 avec un stoploss a 0.09662
Avec un position size USD de 121.47$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1340.03 x 0.00597 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1340.03 x 0.01494 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1340.03
- Taille de position USD 121.47
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5025
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 16.48 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.59 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -3.23 $ | -2.66 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1809 % | 63.48 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09065 | 0.09662 | 0.07571 | 2.5 | 0.04733 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.09065
- Stop Loss: 0.09662
- Take Profit: 0.07571
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.09662 - 0.09065 = 0.00597
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.09065 - 0.07571 = 0.01494
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.01494 / 0.00597 = 2.5025
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.586%
(0.0060)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -0.802% | 0.1R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -1.489% | 0.2R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -2.196% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -4.181% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.304% | 0.2R | -4.181% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -6.724% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -6.724% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -7.501% | 1.1R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.304% | 0.2R | -7.606% | 1.2R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 10 min
MAE in 1330 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.