Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 299.95 XRP at 1.469$ per unit. Take profit: 1.4019 (4.54 %) & Stop Loss: 1.4953 (1.82 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 15:13:54
hyperliquid
XRP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 15:13
→ 03:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 1.4686$
Qty 299.9538 XRP
Size 440.5122$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 1.4019 (+4.54%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 1.4953 (-1.82%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.04%
/ -4.59$
MAE -1.64%
MFE +0.45%
0.3R
expires
03 Oct 03:13
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 172698)
#16 / 82
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 15:00
score du 02/10/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6714
Quality Score
0.598
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#16 / 82
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#16 / 82
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.16×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.43×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.52×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
173.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 15:00
02/10 15:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 02/10 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/10 14:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4677
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
-2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.90 |
early_expansion
-1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
1.00
Transition risk :
0.00
Score contribution (this trade)
-3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
10.1%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 77.8% |
| 1h | 1.6% |
| 4h | 3.2% |
| 24h | 23.8% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 63.5% | +0.12% |
| 4h | 15.9% | -2.94% |
| 24h | 28.6% | -1.85% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.267
Universe :
63
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
1.00
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 15:01
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4907
Score SMA
0.5453
Rank
#56
/ 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2763
Rank Norm SMA
0.2595
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6497 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.35% · r3d: -0.13% · ema21_slope: 0.6175% · dist_ema21: 2.394% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4561 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.12% · rs_3d: -1.78% · beta_24h: 1.578 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2602 | rvol_20: 0.60× · zscore_50: -0.376 · trend: 2.16% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7868 | ADX: 42.0 (trend) · Chop: 46.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.1167 | ATR%: 5.650% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.5979
Score SMA
0.5141
Rank
#16
/ 82
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6714
Rank Norm SMA
0.4626
Calculé le
02/10/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3541 | r1h: -2.296% · r4h: -3.277% · r1d: -2.52% · r3d: -2.42% · ema21_slope: 0.0383% · dist_ema21: -3.092% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3477 | rs_1h: -1.657% · rs_4h: -1.601% · rs_1d: -1.89% · rs_3d: -3.15% · beta_24h: 1.369 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 4.49× · zscore_50: 5.227 · trend: 155.86% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6980 | ADX: 23.8 (weak) · Chop: 21.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.258% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5574
Score SMA
0.5166
Rank
#35
/ 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6411
Rank Norm SMA
0.4021
Calculé le
02/10/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4675 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.735% · r1d: 1.31% · r3d: -0.76% · ema21_slope: -0.0060% · dist_ema21: 0.000% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4203 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.484% · rs_1d: -0.11% · rs_3d: -3.50% · beta_24h: 0.791 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6763 | rvol_20: 2.37× · zscore_50: 1.159 · trend: 24.58% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5118 | ADX: 25.2 (trend) · Chop: 62.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.986% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.818%
(0.0267)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -0.422% | 0.2R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -0.497% | 0.3R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -0.858% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -1.641% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.449% | 0.3R | -1.641% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -1.859% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -2.138% | 1.2R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -2.839% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -4.310% | 2.4R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 6 min
MAE in 2151 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.93
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.87 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.03 | 30/09 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | near -0.4ATR | near 0.4ATR | 0.73 | bull_high | +3.04% | -0.17 | 02/10 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.73 | range_medium | -0.29% | -0.15 | 02/10 14:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.84 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.32% | -0.19 | 02/10 14:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#197547
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.672 | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 15b 0.4ATR | — | — | 0.60 | 86% | ↑ +0.36 | above_value | -1.98 | — | #105780 | 0.87 | bull_high | +13.92% | +0.03 |
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:18
|
|
4h
#204002
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.504 | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early 6b 0.0ATR | near -0.4ATR | near 0.4ATR | 2.37 | 93% | ↔ +0.15 | value | -0.93 | — | #108577 | 0.73 | bull_high | +3.04% | -0.17 |
02/10 08:00
upd 02/10 12:13
|
|
1h
anchor #205230
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.485 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 6b -2.4ATR | near -1.2ATR | — | 4.49 | 100% | ↑ +0.83 | below_value | -3.05 | — | #109130 | 0.73 | range_medium | -0.29% | -0.15 |
02/10 14:00
upd 02/10 15:09
|
|
15m
#205157
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.472 | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
61%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 1b -3.3ATR | near 0.4ATR | — | 2.17 | 99% | ↔ -0.01 | above_value | -1.49 | — | #108972 | 0.84 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.32% | -0.19 |
02/10 14:45
upd 02/10 15:01
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 15b | — | 2.92×ATR | p5 | +0.376×ATR | p20 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 1.086×ATR | p0 | +0×ATR | p0 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 4.992×ATR | p92 | -2.393×ATR | p94 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 1b | — | 1.896×ATR | p24 | -3.263×ATR | p99 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8309
- reason: down_bo width=1.95×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.49527077
- tp_price: 1.40192308
- atr:
- score: 0.83087297946802
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T07:13:47.255217
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83087297946802
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0162
- obi_top10 : -0.0162
- micro_price : 1.46359962
- spread_pct : 0.006833
- mid_price : 1.46355
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 1.47
- ask_wall_size : 8981010.6
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0721
- obi_top5_std : 0.0318
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6813
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.51055
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.4765
- balance_zone_mid:
1.493525
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790830800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790967600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9504
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
39
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8309
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790964000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.4765
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.4525
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01745769 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.6667
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4525
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:13 | 1.46860000 | 0% |
| 2 | 15:24 | 1.46860000 | 0% |
| 3 | 15:35 | 1.46770000 | -0.061% |
| 4 | 15:45 | 1.46770000 | -0.061% |
| 5 | 15:56 | 1.46770000 | -0.061% |
| 6 | 16:10 | 1.47280000 | +0.286% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6813ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.016
avg -0.072
± 0.032
OBI Top 10
-0.016
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.4636
Micro Price
1.4636
Spread
0.0068%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
1.4700
Size
8,981,010.60
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4686 | 1.4953 | 1.4019 | 2.5 | 0.9603 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4686
- Stop Loss: 1.4953
- Take Profit: 1.4019
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.4953 - 1.4686 = 0.0267
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4686 - 1.4019 = 0.0667
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0667 / 0.0267 = 2.4981
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 440.5122 | 100 | 299.9538 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0267
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0267 = 299.63
Taille de position USD = 299.63 x 1.4686 = 440.04
Donc, tu peux acheter 299.63 avec un stoploss a 1.4953
Avec un position size USD de 440.04$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 299.63 x 0.0267 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 299.63 x 0.0667 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 299.63
- Taille de position USD 440.04
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4981
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.54 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.82 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.59 $ | -1.04 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.641 % | 90.26 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4686 | 1.4953 | 1.4019 | 2.5 | 0.9603 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4686
- Stop Loss: 1.4953
- Take Profit: 1.4019
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.4953 - 1.4686 = 0.0267
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4686 - 1.4019 = 0.0667
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0667 / 0.0267 = 2.4981
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.818%
(0.0267)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -0.422% | 0.2R | 1.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -0.497% | 0.3R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -0.858% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -1.641% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.449% | 0.3R | -1.641% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -1.859% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -2.138% | 1.2R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -2.839% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.449% | 0.3R | -4.310% | 2.4R | 0.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 6 min
MAE in 2151 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.