02 Oct 2026 at 15:19:32 hyperliquid

Short Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 117.76 TRUMP at 1.997$ per unit. Take profit: 1.8272 (8.5 %) & Stop Loss: 2.0649 (3.4 %)

TRUMP SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 15:19 → 18:25 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 1.997$

Qty 117.7563 TRUMP

Size 235.1593$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 1.8272 (+8.5%)

TP $ 20$

SL 2.0649 (-3.4%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.40% / -8$ MAE -6.64% MFE +0.85% 0.3R expires 03 Oct 03:19

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172741)
#61 / 82
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 15:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6537

Quality Score
0.488
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#61 / 82
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.40 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#61 / 82
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-7
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.40 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.40×ATR
4h clear 1.04×ATR
1d clear 3.67×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
7.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 15:16
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2)

02/10 08:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 14:00

Score : -4 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4678
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational bull

0.90

early_expansion

-1

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro bear

0.90

transition

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 6.8%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 28.1%
1h 59.4%
4h 1.6%
24h 20.3%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 28.1% -0.23%
4h 10.9% -4.40%
24h 23.4% -3.16%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.223
Universe : 64 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 1.00
Snapshot évalué : 02/10 15:16 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3920
Score SMA
0.3681
Rank
#74 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0395
Rank Norm SMA
0.0161
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5143 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.30% · r3d: 2.43% · ema21_slope: -0.0217% · dist_ema21: -0.803%
Force Relative 25% 0.4044 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.17% · rs_3d: 0.78% · beta_24h: 1.533
Volume 20% 0.4166 rvol_20: 1.85× · zscore_50: -0.192 · trend: -39.99%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3554 ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 74.7 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 8.784% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 15:00
Score brut
0.4880
Score SMA
0.5216
Rank
#61 / 82
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6537
Rank Norm SMA
0.4712
Calculé le
02/10/2026 15:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3883 r1h: -3.707% · r4h: -6.636% · r1d: -3.14% · r3d: -2.34% · ema21_slope: 0.1108% · dist_ema21: -4.847%
Force Relative 25% 0.2148 rs_1h: -3.067% · rs_4h: -4.960% · rs_1d: -2.51% · rs_3d: -3.07% · beta_24h: 1.887
Volume 20% 0.8475 rvol_20: 3.39× · zscore_50: 1.285 · trend: 71.36%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6827 ADX: 21.9 (weak) · Chop: 22.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.003% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.6217
Score SMA
0.4989
Rank
#18 / 78
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7975
Rank Norm SMA
0.3578
Calculé le
02/10/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5841 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.285% · r1d: 4.50% · r3d: 4.40% · ema21_slope: 0.1025% · dist_ema21: 2.803%
Force Relative 25% 0.5743 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.966% · rs_1d: 3.08% · rs_3d: 1.67% · beta_24h: 1.375
Volume 20% 0.5940 rvol_20: 1.94× · zscore_50: 1.090 · trend: 18.45%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6111 ADX: 28.6 (trend) · Chop: 54.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.9247 ATR%: 3.226% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.400% (0.0679)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.846% 0.3R -1.212% 0.4R 0.7× 12
2h +0.846% 0.3R -2.399% 0.7R 0.4× 24
4h +0.846% 0.3R -4.612% 1.4R 0.2× 48
8h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 144
24h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 288
36h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 432
48h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 576
72h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 0 min MAE in 295 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.43
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range strong balanced compression bull_high
49%
noisy_chop 33% mid — — 0.47 bull_high +13.92% -0.51 30/09 20:00
4h ↑ up range range moderate grind normal bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 34% early — near 0.2ATR 0.31 bull_high +3.04% +0.39 02/10 08:00
1h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
54%
noisy_chop 42% late near -0.4ATR — 0.52 range_medium -0.29% -0.22 02/10 14:00
15m ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong fading expansion bear_high_confirmed
51%
choppy 47% late — — 0.43 bear_low -1.43% -0.53 02/10 15:00
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#197677
↔ neutral range range strong balanced 0.535 compression bull_high
49%
noisy_chop 33% mid 33b -0.1ATR — — 1.85 86% ↑ +0.29 above_value -0.46 — #105819 0.47 bull_high +13.92% -0.51
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:25
4h
#204106
↑ up range range moderate grind 0.730 normal bull_high
63%
noisy_chop 34% early 7b 0.8ATR — near 0.2ATR 1.94 78% ↑ +0.58 above_value +2.07 — #108618 0.31 bull_high +3.04% +0.39
02/10 08:00
upd 02/10 12:18
1h anchor
#205271
↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.538 expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
54%
noisy_chop 42% late 6b -2.6ATR near -0.4ATR — 3.39 94% ↑ +0.80 below_value -1.84 — #109171 0.52 range_medium -0.29% -0.22
02/10 14:00
upd 02/10 15:11
15m
#205351
↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong fading 0.325 expansion bear_high_confirmed
51%
choppy 47% late 22b -3.7ATR — — 0.09 18% ↑ +0.22 below_value -1.84 — #109171 0.43 bear_low -1.43% -0.53
02/10 15:00
upd 02/10 15:17
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 33b — 5.582×ATR p50 -0.096×ATR p2
4h ↑ up early 7b — 1.699×ATR p0 +0.777×ATR p50
1h ↓ down late 6b — 5.408×ATR p95 -2.606×ATR p97
15m ↓ down late 22b — 8.22×ATR p97 -3.747×ATR p98

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.8248
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.53×ATR dur=75b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 2.06493693
  5. tp_price: 1.82715767
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.82483769100877
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-03T07:19:24.719367
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.82483769100877
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.1038
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0007
  15. micro_price : 1.98648436
  16. spread_pct : 0.050352
  17. mid_price : 1.9865
  18. bid_wall_price : 1.98
  19. bid_wall_size : 329451.36
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 1.99
  22. ask_wall_size : 360612.02
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.1035
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.005
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6981
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.01
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    2.1091
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    2.0132
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    2.06115
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1790701200
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1790967600
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.5324
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    75
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: stretched
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8248
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1790964000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    2.0132
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.8
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.4278
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    8
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    8
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.03786934
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
75
inside_close_ratio
0.8
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4278

Signaux confirmants (5)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 15:19 1.99700000 0%
2 15:29 1.99700000 0%
3 15:40 2.00640000 +0.471%
4 15:51 2.00640000 +0.471%
5 16:02 2.00640000 +0.471%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6981ms Confidence avant OB : 82% → 82%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.104
avg -0.104 ± 0.005
OBI Top 10 0.001

Microstructure

Mid Price
1.9865
Micro Price
1.9865
Spread
0.0504%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
1.9800
Size
329,451.36

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
1.9900
Size
360,612.02

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1.997 2.0649 1.8272 2.5 0.9911
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1.997
  • Stop Loss: 2.0649
  • Take Profit: 1.8272

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2.0649 - 1.997 = 0.0679

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1.997 - 1.8272 = 0.1698

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1698 / 0.0679 = 2.5007

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
235.1593 100 117.7563 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0679

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0679 = 117.82

Taille de position USD = 117.82 x 1.997 = 235.29

Donc, tu peux acheter 117.82 avec un stoploss a 2.0649

Avec un position size USD de 235.29$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 117.82 x 0.0679 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 117.82 x 0.1698 = 20.01

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 117.82
  • Taille de position USD 235.29
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.01
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5007

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
8.5 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.4 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -3.40
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.5003 % 102.95 % 1
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
1.997 2.0649 1.8272 2.5 0.9911
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 1.997
  • Stop Loss: 2.0649
  • Take Profit: 1.8272

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2.0649 - 1.997 = 0.0679

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 1.997 - 1.8272 = 0.1698

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.1698 / 0.0679 = 2.5007

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8272
            [entry_price] => 1.997
            [stop_loss] => 2.07169
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 22:50:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8272
            [entry_price] => 1.997
            [stop_loss] => 2.07848
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 23:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8272
            [entry_price] => 1.997
            [stop_loss] => 2.08527
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 23:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 1.8272
            [entry_price] => 1.997
            [stop_loss] => 2.09885
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-02 23:30:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.400% (0.0679)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.846% 0.3R -1.212% 0.4R 0.7× 12
2h +0.846% 0.3R -2.399% 0.7R 0.4× 24
4h +0.846% 0.3R -4.612% 1.4R 0.2× 48
8h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 144
24h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 288
36h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 432
48h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 576
72h +0.846% 0.3R -6.635% 2.0R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 0 min MAE in 295 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.