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Short Trade on FARTCOIN

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02 Oct 2026 at 16:37:08 hyperliquid

Short Trade on FARTCOIN (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1376.12 FARTCOIN at 0.173$ per unit. Take profit: 0.159 (8.36 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1793 (3.34 %)

FARTCOIN SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 16:37 → 20:15 · 3 hours

Position

Entry 0.1735$

Qty 1376.1192 FARTCOIN

Size 238.7567$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.159 (+8.36%)

TP $ 19.95$

SL 0.1793 (-3.34%)

SL $ 7.98$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -3.34% / -7.98$ MAE -3.57% MFE +1.00% 0.3R expires 03 Oct 04:36

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 172822)
#34 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 16:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7269

Quality Score
0.503
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#34 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#34 / 84
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.34 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 0.80×ATR
4h near -0.46×ATR
1d clear 1.27×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
15.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 16:31
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/10 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 15:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4683
Voir snapshot →
bull developing bull_expansion
Strategic bull

0.90

expansion

-2

Operational bull

0.55

early_expansion

-1

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro bear

0.90

transition

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 1.00
Transition risk : 0.00
Score contribution (this trade) -3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 5.6%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 56.9%
1h 78.5%
4h 3.1%
24h 16.9%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 61.5% +0.04%
4h 7.7% -4.24%
24h 18.5% -3.22%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : 0.273
Universe : 65 · ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence : 1.00
Snapshot évalué : 02/10 16:31 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4456
Score SMA
0.4857
Rank
#67 / 77
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1316
Rank Norm SMA
0.1322
Calculé le
01/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6100 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.29% · r3d: 5.37% · ema21_slope: 0.8991% · dist_ema21: 0.905%
Force Relative 25% 0.4596 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.76% · rs_3d: 3.71% · beta_24h: 2.310
Volume 20% 0.2659 rvol_20: 0.79× · zscore_50: -0.448 · trend: -12.55%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6302 ADX: 22.4 (weak) · Chop: 45.2 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 10.156% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5030
Score SMA
0.5152
Rank
#34 / 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7269
Rank Norm SMA
0.4326
Calculé le
02/10/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4071 r1h: 0.839% · r4h: -7.152% · r1d: -3.62% · r3d: -3.64% · ema21_slope: 0.0712% · dist_ema21: -5.263%
Force Relative 25% 0.3311 rs_1h: 0.781% · rs_4h: -5.938% · rs_1d: -3.22% · rs_3d: -4.50% · beta_24h: 3.019
Volume 20% 0.4436 rvol_20: 0.84× · zscore_50: 0.076 · trend: 87.58%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7293 ADX: 27.5 (trend) · Chop: 29.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.555% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.3903
Score SMA
0.4595
Rank
#69 / 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4387
Rank Norm SMA
0.2431
Calculé le
02/10/2026 16:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3209 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -7.152% · r1d: -3.62% · r3d: -3.64% · ema21_slope: 0.0019% · dist_ema21: -4.059%
Force Relative 25% 0.2297 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -5.938% · rs_1d: -3.22% · rs_3d: -4.50% · beta_24h: 2.662
Volume 20% 0.7111 rvol_20: 2.27× · zscore_50: 1.708 · trend: 35.31%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4978 ADX: 16.5 (weak) · Chop: 55.4 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.4518 ATR%: 4.645% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.343% (0.0058)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.818% 0.2R -0.311% 0.1R 2.6× 12
2h +0.818% 0.2R -0.588% 0.2R 1.4× 24
4h +0.818% 0.2R -3.574% 1.1R 0.2× 48
8h +0.818% 0.2R -3.574% 1.1R 0.2× 96
12h ★ +1.003% 0.3R -3.574% 1.1R 0.3× 144
24h +1.003% 0.3R -4.035% 1.2R 0.3× 288
36h +1.003% 0.3R -4.035% 1.2R 0.3× 432
48h +1.003% 0.3R -6.006% 1.8R 0.2× 576
72h +1.003% 0.3R -10.427% 3.1R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 682 min MAE in 1242 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.32
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
64%
noisy_chop 37% early — near -0.1ATR 0.65 bull_high +13.92% +0.81 30/09 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading normal bear_high
53%
noisy_chop 33% mid near -0.5ATR — 0.59 bull_high +1.76% -0.41 02/10 12:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong balanced volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
46%
noisy_chop 43% late — — 0.58 range_medium -0.23% -0.21 02/10 15:00
15m ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate grind expansion bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 47% mid — — 0.67 bear_low -1.06% -0.48 02/10 16:15
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#197670
 ↔ neutral transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.691 normal bull_high
64%
noisy_chop 37% early 8b 0.1ATR — near -0.1ATR 0.79 47% ↑ +0.59 above_value +0.32 — #105816 0.65 bull_high +13.92% +0.81
30/09 20:00
upd 01/10 20:25
4h
#205776
 ↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.497 normal bear_high
53%
noisy_chop 33% mid 1b -1.0ATR near -0.5ATR — 2.27 90% ↔ -0.00 value -1.58 — #109336 0.59 bull_high +1.76% -0.41
02/10 12:00
upd 02/10 16:18
1h anchor
#205774
 ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong balanced 0.521 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
46%
noisy_chop 43% late 6b -2.2ATR — — 0.84 68% ↑ +0.80 value -1.58 — #109336 0.58 range_medium -0.23% -0.21
02/10 15:00
upd 02/10 16:18
15m
#205941
 ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate grind 0.381 expansion bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 47% mid 6b -1.4ATR — — 0.33 63% ↓ -0.18 value -1.58 — #109336 0.67 bear_low -1.06% -0.48
02/10 16:15
upd 02/10 16:32
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 8b — 2.355×ATR p0 +0.077×ATR p5
4h ↓ down mid 1b — 2.508×ATR p15 -0.987×ATR p61
1h ↓ down late 6b — 4.468×ATR p93 -2.187×ATR p91
15m ↑ up mid 6b — 2.443×ATR p42 -1.378×ATR p75

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.72
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.03×ATR dur=63b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
  4. stop_price: 0.17931345
  5. tp_price: 0.15896638
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.82003368932024
  8. expires_at: 2026-10-03T08:36:59.943725
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.82003368932024
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.2224
  10. obi_top10 : 0.1941
  11. micro_price : 0.17330986
  12. spread_pct : 0.028853
  13. mid_price : 0.173315
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 0.174
  18. ask_wall_size : 2111595.54
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.2177
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.01
  23. pressure_side : bid
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7063
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.18318
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.1746
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.17889
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1790748000
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1790971200
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.0262
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    63
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: stretched
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.82
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1790964000
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.1746
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.6825
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    2
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.2598
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    3
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    13
  54. regime : bear_high
  55. atr_entry : 0.00423447
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
63
inside_close_ratio
0.6825
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2598

Signaux confirmants (18)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 16:37 0.17350000 0%
2 16:47 0.17350000 0%
3 16:57 0.17350000 0%
4 17:09 0.17350000 0%
5 17:19 0.17350000 0%
6 17:29 0.17350000 0%
7 17:39 0.17343000 -0.04%
8 17:49 0.17343000 -0.04%
9 17:59 0.17343000 -0.04%
10 18:12 0.17344000 -0.035%
11 18:23 0.17344000 -0.035%
12 18:33 0.17344000 -0.035%
13 18:43 0.17419000 +0.398%
14 18:53 0.17419000 +0.398%
15 19:04 0.17419000 +0.398%
16 19:14 0.17449000 +0.571%
17 19:24 0.17449000 +0.571%
18 19:34 0.17449000 +0.571%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7063ms Confidence avant OB : 82% → 72%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.222
avg 0.218 ± 0.010
OBI Top 10 0.194

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.1733
Micro Price
0.1733
Spread
0.0289%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.1740
Size
2,111,595.54

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1735 0.1793 0.159 2.5 0.09348
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1735
  • Stop Loss: 0.1793
  • Take Profit: 0.159

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1793 - 0.1735 = 0.0058

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1735 - 0.159 = 0.0145

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0145 / 0.0058 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
238.7567 100 1376.1192 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0058

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0058 = 1379.31

Taille de position USD = 1379.31 x 0.1735 = 239.31

Donc, tu peux acheter 1379.31 avec un stoploss a 0.1793

Avec un position size USD de 239.31$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1379.31 x 0.0058 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1379.31 x 0.0145 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1379.31
  • Taille de position USD 239.31
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
8.36 % 19.95 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.34 % 7.98 $
PNL PNL %
-7.98 $ -3.34
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.5735 % 106.9 % 13
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1735 0.1793 0.159 2.5 0.09348
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1735
  • Stop Loss: 0.1793
  • Take Profit: 0.159

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1793 - 0.1735 = 0.0058

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1735 - 0.159 = 0.0145

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0145 / 0.0058 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.343% (0.0058)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.818% 0.2R -0.311% 0.1R 2.6× 12
2h +0.818% 0.2R -0.588% 0.2R 1.4× 24
4h +0.818% 0.2R -3.574% 1.1R 0.2× 48
8h +0.818% 0.2R -3.574% 1.1R 0.2× 96
12h ★ +1.003% 0.3R -3.574% 1.1R 0.3× 144
24h +1.003% 0.3R -4.035% 1.2R 0.3× 288
36h +1.003% 0.3R -4.035% 1.2R 0.3× 432
48h +1.003% 0.3R -6.006% 1.8R 0.2× 576
72h +1.003% 0.3R -10.427% 3.1R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 682 min MAE in 1242 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.