Short Trade on PENGU

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02 Oct 2026 at 18:15:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 16796.84 PENGU at 0.00881$ per unit. Take profit: 0.008595 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009291 (5.4 %)

PENGU SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 18:15 → 00:15 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.008815$

Qty 16796.8422 PENGU

Size 148.0642$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.008595 (+2.5%)

TP $ 3.7$

SL 0.009291 (-5.4%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.46

Status loss PnL -1.09% / -1.61$ MAE -3.30% MFE +0.08% 0.0R expires 03 Oct 00:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 173073)

#78 / 84

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 18:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2377

Quality Score

0.397

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#78 / 84

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.40 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#78 / 84

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

5.40 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.04×ATR
4h	clear	1.81×ATR
1d	clear	3.43×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
1d	↑ up	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

btc

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

-3.59

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

9.8M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 18:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 30/09 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 02/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/10 17:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

30/09 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

02/10 12:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

02/10 17:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4689

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	early_expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	bear 0.90	transition

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 1.00

Transition risk : 0.00

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 3.6%

Macro alt_capitulation

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : btc

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	69.2%
1h	75.4%
4h	3.1%
24h	21.5%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	64.6%	+0.04%
4h	3.1%	-3.59%
24h	23.1%	-2.19%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.283

Universe : 65 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 1.00

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 18:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 01/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4932

Score SMA

0.5828

Rank

#55 / 77

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2895

Rank Norm SMA

0.3979

Calculé le

01/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.7019	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.73% · r3d: -0.15% · ema21_slope: 1.5765% · dist_ema21: 4.529%
Force Relative	25%	0.4336	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.20% · rs_3d: -1.80% · beta_24h: 1.532
Volume	20%	0.2606	rvol_20: 0.52× · zscore_50: -0.447 · trend: 14.92%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.8144	ADX: 37.7 (trend) · Chop: 37.3 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 9.465% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 18:00

Score brut

0.3965

Score SMA

0.5199

Rank

#78 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2377

Rank Norm SMA

0.4571

Calculé le

02/10/2026 18:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2600	r1h: 1.042% · r4h: -5.677% · r1d: -5.89% · r3d: -11.51% · ema21_slope: -0.2559% · dist_ema21: -6.392%
Force Relative	25%	0.2509	rs_1h: 0.982% · rs_4h: -5.322% · rs_1d: -5.86% · rs_3d: -12.71% · beta_24h: 2.848
Volume	20%	0.2953	rvol_20: 0.12× · zscore_50: -0.492 · trend: 46.09%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7416	ADX: 29.0 (trend) · Chop: 19.5 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.325% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 16:00

Score brut

0.4346

Score SMA

0.5217

Rank

#54 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2586

Rank Norm SMA

0.4432

Calculé le

02/10/2026 16:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.2815	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -8.442% · r1d: -7.05% · r3d: -10.11% · ema21_slope: -0.1363% · dist_ema21: -8.168%
Force Relative	25%	0.1155	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -7.228% · rs_1d: -6.64% · rs_3d: -10.96% · beta_24h: 3.125
Volume	20%	0.9334	rvol_20: 3.55× · zscore_50: 3.081 · trend: 50.06%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.6910	ADX: 26.7 (trend) · Chop: 42.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.3091	ATR%: 5.073% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.400% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.079%	0.0R	-0.681%	0.1R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.079%	0.0R	-1.951%	0.4R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.301%	0.6R	0.0×	48
6h ★	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.301%	0.6R	0.0×	72
8h	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.301%	0.6R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.494%	0.7R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.079%	0.0R	-5.502%	1.0R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.079%	0.0R	-9.507%	1.8R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.079%	0.0R	-14.022%	2.6R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 4 min MAE in 994 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.04

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	volatile_reversal	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near -0.2ATR	0.72	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.94	30/09 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	51%	noisy_chop 37%	late	—	—	0.57	bull_high	+1.76%	-0.79	02/10 12:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	strong	fading	expansion_after_compression	bear_high_confirmed	53%	noisy_chop 45%	late	—	—	0.56	range_medium	+0.00%	-0.59	02/10 17:00
15m	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	balanced	normal	bear_high	59%	ranging_calm 51%	mid	—	—	0.67	bear_low	-0.77%	-0.68	02/10 17:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197668	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.681	volatile_reversal	bull_high	58%	noisy_chop 37%	early 16b 0.4ATR	—	near -0.2ATR	0.52	65%	↑ +0.89	below_value	-2.56	—	#105815	0.72	bull_high	+13.92%	+0.94	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:24
4h #205773	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.482	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	51%	noisy_chop 37%	late 2b -1.8ATR	—	—	3.55	97%	↔ +0.02	below_value	-4.94	—	#109335	0.57	bull_high	+1.76%	-0.79	02/10 12:00 upd 02/10 16:18
1h anchor #206613	↓ down	range	range	strong	fading	0.710	expansion_after_compression	bear_high_confirmed	53%	noisy_chop 45%	late 8b -2.8ATR	—	—	0.12	9%	↔ +0.08	below_value	-5.34	—	#109760	0.56	range_medium	+0.00%	-0.59	02/10 17:00 upd 02/10 18:12
15m #206529	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	balanced	0.546	normal	bear_high	59%	ranging_calm 51%	mid 8b -1.8ATR	—	—	0.01	5%	↓ -0.88	below_value	-5.56	—	#109590	0.67	bear_low	-0.77%	-0.68	02/10 17:45 upd 02/10 18:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↑ up	early	16b	—	3.113×ATR	p21	+0.381×ATR	p21
4h	↓ down	late	2b	—	2.778×ATR	p19	-1.803×ATR	p80
1h	↓ down	late	8b	—	5.82×ATR	p100	-2.795×ATR	p98
15m	↓ down	mid	8b	—	1.064×ATR	p0	-1.828×ATR	p74

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.00929128
tp_price: 0.00859462
atr: 0.00019051
expires_at: 2026-10-03T04:15:05+00:00

Details

rank: 81
total: 84
score: 0.2419
delta_2h: -0.0583
extension_atr: -2.83
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2362
confidence: 0.964

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008815	0.009291	0.008595	0.46	0.004804

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008815
Stop Loss: 0.009291
Take Profit: 0.008595

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009291 - 0.008815 = 0.000476
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008815 - 0.008595 = 0.00022
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00022 / 0.000476 = 0.4622

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
148.0642	100	16796.8422	1.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.000476

Taille de position = 8 / 0.000476 = 16806.72

Taille de position USD = 16806.72 x 0.008815 = 148.15

Donc, tu peux acheter 16806.72 avec un stoploss a 0.009291

Avec un position size USD de 148.15$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 16806.72 x 0.000476 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 16806.72 x 0.00022 = 3.7

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.7$

Résumé

Taille de position 16806.72
Taille de position USD 148.15
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 3.7
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.4622

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	3.7 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
5.4 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-1.61 $	-1.09

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-3.3012 %	61.13 %	1

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008815	0.009291	0.008595	0.46	0.004804

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008815
Stop Loss: 0.009291
Take Profit: 0.008595

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009291 - 0.008815 = 0.000476
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008815 - 0.008595 = 0.00022
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00022 / 0.000476 = 0.4622

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -5.400% (0.0005)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.079%	0.0R	-0.681%	0.1R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.079%	0.0R	-1.951%	0.4R	0.0×	24
4h	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.301%	0.6R	0.0×	48
6h ★	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.301%	0.6R	0.0×	72
8h	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.301%	0.6R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.079%	0.0R	-3.494%	0.7R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.079%	0.0R	-5.502%	1.0R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.079%	0.0R	-9.507%	1.8R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.079%	0.0R	-14.022%	2.6R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 4 min MAE in 994 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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