Long Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 151.58 TRUMP at 2.112$ per unit. Take profit: 2.2435 (6.25 %) & Stop Loss: 2.0588 (2.5 %)
02 Oct 2026 at 20:40:50
hyperliquid
TRUMP
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Oct 2026 20:40
→ 03:15
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 2.1116$
Qty 151.5826 TRUMP
Size 320.0819$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 2.2435 (+6.25%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 2.0588 (-2.5%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.50%
/ -8$
MAE -3.03%
MFE +0.17%
0.1R
expires
03 Oct 08:40
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 173245)
#9 / 85
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 20:00
score du 02/10/2026 20:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6499
Quality Score
0.641
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#9 / 85
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.50 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#9 / 85
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.50 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.81×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.42×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 3.36×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
6.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 20:31
02/10 20:31
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (+3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 02/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 02/10 19:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #4699
Voir snapshot →
bull
developing
bull_expansion
| Strategic |
bull
0.90 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bull
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.97
Transition risk :
0.03
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
66.2%
Macro
broad_risk_on
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 63.1% |
| 1h | 49.2% |
| 4h | 87.7% |
| 24h | 33.9% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 53.9% | +0.04% |
| 4h | 87.7% | +2.12% |
| 24h | 41.5% | -1.27% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
0.166
Universe :
65
· ≥ $2.0M
Regime confidence :
0.98
Snapshot évalué :
02/10 20:31
· env trend_expansion
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4048
Score SMA
0.3663
Rank
#80
/ 84
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0482
Rank Norm SMA
0.0213
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5696 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 2.69% · r3d: 4.36% · ema21_slope: -0.0780% · dist_ema21: 1.695% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5030 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.11% · rs_3d: 3.33% · beta_24h: 1.488 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2774 | rvol_20: 1.03× · zscore_50: -0.332 · trend: -39.32% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3512 | ADX: 17.4 (weak) · Chop: 74.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.742% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6406
Score SMA
0.5217
Rank
#9
/ 85
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6499
Rank Norm SMA
0.4844
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.7197 | r1h: 1.865% · r4h: 4.861% · r1d: 2.69% · r3d: 4.36% · ema21_slope: -0.0240% · dist_ema21: 1.364% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.7425 | rs_1h: 1.910% · rs_4h: 4.623% · rs_1d: 3.11% · rs_3d: 3.33% · beta_24h: 1.963 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1966 | rvol_20: 0.49× · zscore_50: -0.458 · trend: -29.61% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6652 | ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 26.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.789% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5705
Score SMA
0.5001
Rank
#17
/ 85
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6638
Rank Norm SMA
0.3815
Calculé le
02/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6204 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 4.861% · r1d: 2.69% · r3d: 4.36% · ema21_slope: 0.1039% · dist_ema21: 1.821% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6569 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 4.623% · rs_1d: 3.11% · rs_3d: 3.33% · beta_24h: 1.938 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2507 | rvol_20: 0.53× · zscore_50: -0.454 · trend: 7.55% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6286 | ADX: 26.3 (trend) · Chop: 49.4 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7570 | ATR%: 3.729% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.501%
(0.0528)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -0.905% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -1.141% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -1.317% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -2.955% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.171% | 0.1R | -3.026% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -3.594% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -4.584% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -4.584% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -4.584% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 34 min
MAE in 2134 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.17
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | strong | balanced | normal | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.47 | bull_high | +13.14% | -0.28 | 01/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.32 | bull_high | +1.96% | +0.15 | 02/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.52 | range_medium | +0.01% | +0.33 | 02/10 19:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bull_high |
66%
|
choppy 56% | late | — | — | 0.43 | range_low | -0.58% | +0.44 | 02/10 20:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#207702
|
↑ up | range | range | strong | balanced | 0.556 | normal | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 34b 0.2ATR | — | — | 1.03 | 77% | ↔ +0.10 | above_value | +1.22 | — | #110104 | 0.47 | bull_high | +13.14% | -0.28 |
01/10 20:00
upd 02/10 20:27
|
|
4h
#207585
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.602 | expansion | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early 2b 0.4ATR | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.53 | 31% | ↑ +0.53 | above_value | +1.22 | — | #110104 | 0.32 | bull_high | +1.96% | +0.15 |
02/10 16:00
upd 02/10 20:21
|
|
1h
anchor #207582
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.643 | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 5b 0.7ATR | — | — | 0.49 | 59% | ↔ +0.08 | above_value | +1.22 | — | #110104 | 0.52 | range_medium | +0.01% | +0.33 |
02/10 19:00
upd 02/10 20:21
|
|
15m
#207805
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | 0.703 | compression | bull_high |
66%
|
choppy 56% | late 23b 2.1ATR | — | — | 1.69 | 66% | ↑ +0.16 | above_value | +1.22 | — | #110104 | 0.43 | range_low | -0.58% | +0.44 |
02/10 20:15
upd 02/10 20:33
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 34b | — | 5.161×ATR | p29 | +0.199×ATR | p8 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 1.272×ATR | p0 | +0.434×ATR | p34 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 3.607×ATR | p83 | +0.657×ATR | p43 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 23b | — | 7.832×ATR | p93 | +2.146×ATR | p84 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8481
- reason: up_bo width=2.54×ATR dur=71b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 2.05882351
- tp_price: 2.24354121
- atr:
- score: 0.84814034936134
- expires_at: 2026-10-03T12:40:42.667719
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84814034936134
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0088
- obi_top10 : -0.046
- micro_price : 2.10881034
- spread_pct : 0.047438
- mid_price : 2.1085
- bid_wall_price : 2.1
- bid_wall_size : 348054.24
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 2.11
- ask_wall_size : 244245.9
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0088
- obi_top5_std : 0
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6972
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2.1091
- balance_zone_bottom:
2.0159
- balance_zone_mid:
2.0625
- balance_zone_start_time:
1790733600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1790985600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.535
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
71
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8481
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1790982000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2.1091
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7746
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.068
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 0.03676486 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
71
inside_close_ratio
0.7746
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.068
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:40 | 2.11160000 | 0% |
| 2 | 20:51 | 2.11160000 | 0% |
| 3 | 21:00 | 2.11160000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6972ms
Confidence avant OB :
85%
→
85%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.009
avg -0.009
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
-0.046
Microstructure
Mid Price
2.1085
Micro Price
2.1088
Spread
0.0474%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
2.1000
Size
348,054.24
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
2.1100
Size
244,245.90
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1116 | 2.0588 | 2.2435 | 2.5 | 0.9224 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.1116
- Stop Loss: 2.0588
- Take Profit: 2.2435
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.0588 - 2.1116 = -0.0528
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.1116 - 2.2435 = -0.1319
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.1319 / -0.0528 = 2.4981
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 320.0819 | 100 | 151.5826 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -0.0528
Taille de position = 8 / -0.0528 = -151.52
Taille de position USD = -151.52 x 2.1116 = -319.95
Donc, tu peux acheter -151.52 avec un stoploss a 2.0588
Avec un position size USD de -319.95$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -151.52 x -0.0528 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -151.52 x -0.1319 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position -151.52
- Taille de position USD -319.95
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4981
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.25 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5289 % | 101.14 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1116 | 2.0588 | 2.2435 | 2.5 | 0.9224 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2.1116
- Stop Loss: 2.0588
- Take Profit: 2.2435
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2.0588 - 2.1116 = -0.0528
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2.1116 - 2.2435 = -0.1319
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.1319 / -0.0528 = 2.4981
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.501%
(0.0528)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -0.905% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -1.141% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -1.317% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -2.955% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.171% | 0.1R | -3.026% | 1.2R | 0.1× | 143 |
| 24h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -3.594% | 1.4R | 0.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -4.584% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -4.584% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +0.171% | 0.1R | -4.584% | 1.8R | 0.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 34 min
MAE in 2134 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.