Short Trade on PENGU

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02 Oct 2026 at 22:15:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 18530.96 PENGU at 0.00899$ per unit. Take profit: 0.008768 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.009425 (4.8 %)

PENGU SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 02 Oct 2026 22:15 → 04:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 0.008993$

Qty 18530.9583 PENGU

Size 166.6489$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.008768 (+2.5%)

TP $ 4.17$

SL 0.009425 (-4.8%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 0.52

Status win PnL +0.69% / +1.15$ MAE -0.36% MFE +1.23% 0.3R expires 03 Oct 04:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 173578)

#77 / 82

seuil : top 15
score du 02/10/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.1359

Quality Score

0.448

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#77 / 82

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.80 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#77 / 82

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

96 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-3

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

4.80 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	clear	1.36×ATR
4h	clear	2.05×ATR
1d	clear	1.64×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↑ up	mid	OK
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

alts

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

1.83

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

10.0M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
02/10 22:02

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/10 21:00 Score : 0 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

01/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

02/10 21:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4705

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	range 0
Micro	range 0.25	compression

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 0.97

Transition risk : 0.03

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 71.7%

Macro broad_risk_on

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : alts

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	37.9%
1h	48.5%
4h	92.4%
24h	33.3%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	37.9%	-0.01%
4h	89.4%	+1.83%
24h	39.4%	-0.62%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.162

Universe : 66 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.98

Snapshot évalué : 02/10 22:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4088

Score SMA

0.5418

Rank

#79 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.0602

Rank Norm SMA

0.3201

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4755	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: 1.2685% · dist_ema21: -1.183%
Force Relative	25%	0.2422	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 1.532
Volume	20%	0.4460	rvol_20: 1.23× · zscore_50: 0.467 · trend: 23.48%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7762	ADX: 36.8 (trend) · Chop: 41.9 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 10.478% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 22:00

Score brut

0.4479

Score SMA

0.5158

Rank

#77 / 82

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1359

Rank Norm SMA

0.4442

Calculé le

02/10/2026 22:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3143	r1h: -0.719% · r4h: 1.802% · r1d: -5.30% · r3d: -11.33% · ema21_slope: -0.4286% · dist_ema21: -3.190%
Force Relative	25%	0.3365	rs_1h: -0.704% · rs_4h: 1.651% · rs_1d: -4.98% · rs_3d: -12.76% · beta_24h: 2.881
Volume	20%	0.1815	rvol_20: 0.18× · zscore_50: -0.453 · trend: -41.23%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7613	ADX: 31.4 (trend) · Chop: 23.7 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 2.055% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.3491

Score SMA

0.5144

Rank

#83 / 85

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.1926

Rank Norm SMA

0.4294

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3614	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.836% · r1d: -5.58% · r3d: -10.46% · ema21_slope: -0.1778% · dist_ema21: -6.773%
Force Relative	25%	0.2651	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.598% · rs_1d: -5.16% · rs_3d: -11.50% · beta_24h: 3.118
Volume	20%	0.2384	rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -0.747 · trend: 16.15%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5918	ADX: 26.3 (trend) · Chop: 53.9 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.3797	ATR%: 4.861% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.804% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.645%	0.1R	-0.356%	0.1R	1.8×	12
2h	+0.990%	0.2R	-0.356%	0.1R	2.8×	24
4h	+1.234%	0.3R	-0.356%	0.1R	3.5×	48
6h ★	+1.234%	0.3R	-0.356%	0.1R	3.5×	72
8h	+1.234%	0.3R	-1.446%	0.3R	0.9×	96
12h	+1.234%	0.3R	-1.601%	0.3R	0.8×	144
24h	+1.234%	0.3R	-3.414%	0.7R	0.4×	288
48h	+1.234%	0.3R	-10.108%	2.1R	0.1×	576
72h	+1.234%	0.3R	-11.765%	2.5R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 164 min MAE in 754 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30

ML Pullback Score: 2.67

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	volatile_reversal	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 37%	early	—	near 0.4ATR	0.72	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.83	01/10 20:00
4h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	normal	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 38%	mid	—	—	0.57	bull_high	+1.96%	-0.78	02/10 16:00
1h	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	expansion	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 48%	mid	—	—	0.56	range_medium	+0.14%	-0.66	02/10 21:00
15m	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 44%	early	—	—	0.67	range_low	-0.42%	+0.26	02/10 21:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #207694	↔ neutral	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.644	volatile_reversal	bull_high	53%	noisy_chop 37%	early 9b -0.1ATR	—	near 0.4ATR	1.23	90%	↑ +0.83	below_value	-5.22	—	#110100	0.72	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.83	01/10 20:00 upd 02/10 20:26
4h #207569	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.488	normal	bear_high	52%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 3b -1.7ATR	—	—	0.48	52%	↔ +0.04	below_value	-5.22	—	#110100	0.57	bull_high	+1.96%	-0.78	02/10 16:00 upd 02/10 20:21
1h anchor #208473	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	0.277	expansion	bear_high	60%	noisy_chop 48%	mid 7b -1.4ATR	—	—	0.18	15%	↔ +0.10	below_value	-5.08	—	#110524	0.56	range_medium	+0.14%	-0.66	02/10 21:00 upd 02/10 22:12
15m #208390	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.495	compression	bear_high	59%	noisy_chop 44%	early 2b 0.0ATR	—	—	0.47	30%	↔ -0.04	below_value	-4.62	—	#110356	0.67	range_low	-0.42%	+0.26	02/10 21:45 upd 02/10 22:03
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	9b	—	2.405×ATR	p0	-0.095×ATR	p4
4h	↓ down	mid	3b	—	2.704×ATR	p19	-1.657×ATR	p75
1h	↑ up	mid	7b	—	1.875×ATR	p18	-1.353×ATR	p73
15m	↓ down	early	2b	—	1.901×ATR	p20	+0.048×ATR	p5

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 0.00942471
tp_price: 0.00876817
atr: 0.00017269
expires_at: 2026-10-03T08:15:05+00:00

Details

rank: 82
total: 85
score: 0.3445
delta_2h: -0.0255
extension_atr: -1.41
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.139
confidence: 0.964

Signal Details

Signaux confirmants (2)

#	Heure	Entry	Δ
1	22:15	0.00899300	0%
2	23:15	0.00894600	-0.523%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008993	0.009425	0.008768	0.52	0.004991

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008993
Stop Loss: 0.009425
Take Profit: 0.008768

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009425 - 0.008993 = 0.000432
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008993 - 0.008768 = 0.000225
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000225 / 0.000432 = 0.5208

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
166.6489	100	18530.9583	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 0.000432

Taille de position = 8 / 0.000432 = 18518.52

Taille de position USD = 18518.52 x 0.008993 = 166.54

Donc, tu peux acheter 18518.52 avec un stoploss a 0.009425

Avec un position size USD de 166.54$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 18518.52 x 0.000432 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 18518.52 x 0.000225 = 4.17

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.17$

Résumé

Taille de position 18518.52
Taille de position USD 166.54
Perte potentielle 8
Gain potentiel 4.17
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5208

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	4.17 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
4.8 %	8.01 $

PNL	PNL %
1.15 $	0.69

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-0.3558 %	7.41 %	6

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
0.008993	0.009425	0.008768	0.52	0.004991

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 0.008993
Stop Loss: 0.009425
Take Profit: 0.008768

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 0.009425 - 0.008993 = 0.000432
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 0.008993 - 0.008768 = 0.000225
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000225 / 0.000432 = 0.5208

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -4.804% (0.0004)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.645%	0.1R	-0.356%	0.1R	1.8×	12
2h	+0.990%	0.2R	-0.356%	0.1R	2.8×	24
4h	+1.234%	0.3R	-0.356%	0.1R	3.5×	48
6h ★	+1.234%	0.3R	-0.356%	0.1R	3.5×	72
8h	+1.234%	0.3R	-1.446%	0.3R	0.9×	96
12h	+1.234%	0.3R	-1.601%	0.3R	0.8×	144
24h	+1.234%	0.3R	-3.414%	0.7R	0.4×	288
48h	+1.234%	0.3R	-10.108%	2.1R	0.1×	576
72h	+1.234%	0.3R	-11.765%	2.5R	0.1×	864

⏱ MFE in 164 min MAE in 754 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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