Short Trade on TAO

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03 Oct 2026 at 05:15:14 hyperliquid

Short Trade on TAO (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 0.83 TAO at 288.51$ per unit. Take profit: 281.2973 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 298.1259 (3.33 %)

TAO SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 03 Oct 2026 05:15 → 11:10 · 5 hours

Position

Entry 288.51$

Qty 0.832 TAO

Size 240.0281$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 281.2973 (+2.5%)

TP $ 6$

SL 298.1259 (-3.33%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.75

Status loss PnL -1.06% / -2.55$ MAE -2.12% MFE +0.07% 0.0R expires 03 Oct 11:15 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 174296)

#73 / 80

seuil : top 15
score du 03/10/2026 05:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2129

Quality Score

0.394

score brut du coin

Quality Rank

#73 / 80

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

91 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

BTC Regime Score

-3

−4 → +4 (macro BTC)

Coin Regime Score

-2

−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)

Combined Regime Score

-5

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.33 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Décision V3

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank

#73 / 80

seuil : top 15

Signal Confidence

91 %

seuil : ≥ 40%

Combined Regime Score

-5

BLOCKED

seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3

Stop Loss Size

3.33 %

seuil : ≥ 0.75%

Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)

2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Near Demand	Distance (ATR)
1h	near	0.02×ATR
4h	near	-0.75×ATR
1d	clear	2.13×ATR

Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)

1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF

TF	Direction	Maturity	Adverse
1h	↓ down	late	BLOCKED
4h	↓ down	mid	OK
1d	↓ down	early	OK

Décision V4

WOULD SKIP

rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

seuil : ≥ +3

Breadth Leadership

mixed

attendu : btc_leading

Breadth State

N/A

attendu : contracting / deteriorating

Décision V5

N/A

regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score

-3

LOW

seuil : ≥ +3

Local 4h

N/A

attendu : bearish

Median return 4h

-0.01

attendu : < -1.5

Décision V6

N/A

regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)

23.5M $

volume USDT au moment du signal
03/10 05:01

Coin Market Regime V2
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 01/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 03/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/10 04:00 Score : -2 / ±6

Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

01/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : range_high (0)

03/10 00:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

03/10 04:00

Score : -2 / ±6

BTC Correlation	Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #4733

Voir snapshot →

bull developing bull_expansion

Strategic	bull 0.90	expansion -2
Operational	bull 0.55	expansion -1
Tactical	range 0.25	transition 0
Micro	range 0.25	compression

MTF alignment : 0.85

Stability : 0.97

Transition risk : 0.03

Score contribution (this trade) -3

Market Breadth

Breadth Score 41.2%

Macro mixed_dispersion

Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown

Legacy leadership : mixed

Breadth state insufficient_history

Δ 15m

·—

Δ 1h

·—

Δ 4h

·—

Δ 12h

·—

Δ 24h

·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)

15m	47.5%
1h	66.1%
4h	49.2%
24h	17.0%

Outperformance vs BTC

Window	% outperf	Median ret
15m	39.0%	+0.00%
4h	50.9%	-0.01%
24h	30.5%	-4.16%

Expansion & Tails (4h)

Up ≥1σ

—

Down ≥1σ

—

Expansion

—

Tail ↑

—

Tail ↓

—

Dispersion : 0.112

Universe : 59 · ≥ $2.0M

Regime confidence : 0.98

Snapshot évalué : 03/10 05:01 · env trend_expansion

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

Calculé le 02/10/2026 20:00

Score brut

0.4750

Score SMA

0.5878

Rank

#62 / 84

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2651

Rank Norm SMA

0.4811

Calculé le

02/10/2026 20:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.6148	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -3.77% · r3d: -2.80% · ema21_slope: 1.2641% · dist_ema21: 2.722%
Force Relative	25%	0.4755	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -3.35% · rs_3d: -3.83% · beta_24h: 2.341
Volume	20%	0.3068	rvol_20: 0.71× · zscore_50: -0.002 · trend: 4.50%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.7358	ADX: 34.1 (trend) · Chop: 44.1 (trend)
Volatilité	10%	0.0000	ATR%: 7.832% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 03/10/2026 05:00

Score brut

0.3942

Score SMA

0.5205

Rank

#73 / 80

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2129

Rank Norm SMA

0.4691

Calculé le

03/10/2026 05:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.3078	r1h: -0.346% · r4h: -0.870% · r1d: -7.92% · r3d: -4.69% · ema21_slope: -0.2320% · dist_ema21: -2.193%
Force Relative	25%	0.3345	rs_1h: -0.400% · rs_4h: -0.906% · rs_1d: -6.02% · rs_3d: -6.56% · beta_24h: 2.445
Volume	20%	0.1801	rvol_20: 0.44× · zscore_50: -0.299 · trend: -55.04%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.4847	ADX: 25.1 (trend) · Chop: 65.9 (range)
Volatilité	10%	1.0000	ATR%: 1.410% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

Calculé le 03/10/2026 04:00

Score brut

0.3920

Score SMA

0.5160

Rank

#64 / 81

Rank Norm SMA 8h

0.2050

Rank Norm SMA

0.4200

Calculé le

03/10/2026 04:00

Composante	Poids	Score	Détails
Momentum	30%	0.4125	r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.030% · r1d: -6.89% · r3d: -3.96% · ema21_slope: -0.1293% · dist_ema21: -4.082%
Force Relative	25%	0.3195	rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.879% · rs_1d: -5.09% · rs_3d: -5.48% · beta_24h: 2.075
Volume	20%	0.1307	rvol_20: 0.30× · zscore_50: -1.154 · trend: -44.30%
Qualité Tendance	15%	0.5111	ADX: 16.0 (weak) · Chop: 53.3 (neutral)
Volatilité	10%	0.8553	ATR%: 3.434% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.333% (9.6159)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.073%	0.0R	-1.113%	0.3R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.073%	0.0R	-1.241%	0.4R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.073%	0.0R	-1.293%	0.4R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.073%	0.0R	-2.118%	0.6R	0.0×	72
8h	+0.073%	0.0R	-2.586%	0.8R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.073%	0.0R	-3.723%	1.1R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.073%	0.0R	-7.650%	2.3R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.073%	0.0R	-7.650%	2.3R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.073%	0.0R	-7.650%	2.3R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 14 min MAE in 1009 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100

ML Pullback Score: 0.07

Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à
1d	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	expansion	bull_high	69%	noisy_chop 42%	early	—	near 0.2ATR	0.64	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.88	01/10 20:00
4h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	compression	range_high	32%	noisy_chop 35%	mid	near -0.7ATR	—	0.53	bull_high	+1.93%	-0.45	03/10 00:00
1h	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 53%	late	near 0.0ATR	—	0.57	range_medium	+0.09%	-0.51	03/10 04:00
15m	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	compression	bear_medium	59%	noisy_chop 42%	late	—	—	0.68	range_low	-0.25%	-0.13	03/10 04:45
5m	—

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

TF	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #207647	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.727	expansion	bull_high	69%	noisy_chop 42%	early 6b 0.3ATR	—	near 0.2ATR	0.71	72%	↑ +0.50	below_value	-2.43	—	#110086	0.64	bull_high	+13.14%	+0.88	01/10 20:00 upd 02/10 20:24
4h #211025	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	fading	0.389	compression	range_high	32%	noisy_chop 35%	mid 4b -1.3ATR	near -0.7ATR	—	0.30	13%	↓ -0.20	below_value	-3.74	—	#111573	0.53	bull_high	+1.93%	-0.45	03/10 00:00 upd 03/10 04:16
1h anchor #211465	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.482	compression	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 53%	late 6b -2.1ATR	near 0.0ATR	—	0.44	23%	↓ -0.80	below_value	-4.12	—	#111819	0.57	range_medium	+0.09%	-0.51	03/10 04:00 upd 03/10 05:10
15m #211388	↓ down	range	range	moderate	grind	0.394	compression	bear_medium	59%	noisy_chop 42%	late 26b -1.7ATR	—	—	0.61	19%	↑ +0.48	below_value	-3.74	—	#111573	0.68	range_low	-0.25%	-0.13	03/10 04:45 upd 03/10 05:02
5m	Pas de snapshot

Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF	Direction	Maturity	Age (bars)	Age since BOS	Amplitude	Amp. %ile	Extension	Ext. %ile
1d	↓ down	early	6b	—	2.162×ATR	p0	+0.281×ATR	p15
4h	↓ down	mid	4b	—	2.773×ATR	p23	-1.34×ATR	p68
1h	↓ down	late	6b	—	1.993×ATR	p32	-2.066×ATR	p91
15m	↓ down	late	26b	—	5.855×ATR	p92	-1.675×ATR	p86

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

stop_price: 298.1258758
tp_price: 281.29725
atr: 3.84635032
expires_at: 2026-10-03T15:15:14+00:00

Details

rank: 75
total: 82
score: 0.3263
delta_2h: -0.0059
extension_atr: -1.4
trend_phase:
trend_direction:
rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.216
confidence: 0.914

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
288.51	298.1259	281.2973	0.75	190.5

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 288.51
Stop Loss: 298.1259
Take Profit: 281.2973

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 298.1259 - 288.51 = 9.6159
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 288.51 - 281.2973 = 7.2127
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.2127 / 9.6159 = 0.7501

📌 Position Size

Amount	Margin	Quantity	Leverage
240.0281	100	0.832	2.00

Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

Account Size 100
Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

Risk Amount 8
Distance Stop Loss 9.6159

Taille de position = 8 / 9.6159 = 0.83

Taille de position USD = 0.83 x 288.51 = 239.46

Donc, tu peux acheter 0.83 avec un stoploss a 298.1259

Avec un position size USD de 239.46$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 0.83 x 9.6159 = 7.98

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.98$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 0.83 x 7.2127 = 5.99

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 5.99$

Résumé

Taille de position 0.83
Taille de position USD 239.46
Perte potentielle 7.98
Gain potentiel 5.99
Risk-Reward Ratio 0.7501

📌 Peformances

TP % Target	TP $ Target
2.5 %	6 $

SL % Target	SL $ Target
3.33 %	8 $

PNL	PNL %
-2.55 $	-1.06

Max Drawdown	Max Drawdown / SL Ratio	Candles in Entry
-2.1178 %	63.54 %	3

Entry	Stop Loss	Take Profit	RR	Current Price
288.51	298.1259	281.2973	0.75	190.5

Details

Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

Entry 288.51
Stop Loss: 298.1259
Take Profit: 281.2973

Calcul:

Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

SL - E = 298.1259 - 288.51 = 9.6159
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

E - TP = 288.51 - 281.2973 = 7.2127
Risk-Reward Ratio:

RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.2127 / 9.6159 = 0.7501

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data


                              Array
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Extra SL data


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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -3.333% (9.6159)

Horizon	MFE %	MFE R	MAE %	MAE R	MFE/MAE	Candles
1h	+0.073%	0.0R	-1.113%	0.3R	0.1×	12
2h	+0.073%	0.0R	-1.241%	0.4R	0.1×	24
4h	+0.073%	0.0R	-1.293%	0.4R	0.1×	48
6h ★	+0.073%	0.0R	-2.118%	0.6R	0.0×	72
8h	+0.073%	0.0R	-2.586%	0.8R	0.0×	96
12h	+0.073%	0.0R	-3.723%	1.1R	0.0×	144
24h	+0.073%	0.0R	-7.650%	2.3R	0.0×	288
48h	+0.073%	0.0R	-7.650%	2.3R	0.0×	576
72h	+0.073%	0.0R	-7.650%	2.3R	0.0×	864

⏱ MFE in 14 min MAE in 1009 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.