28 Oct 2026 at 22:12:43 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ETH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.23 ETH at 2306.8$ per unit. Take profit: 2221.2166 (3.71 %) & Stop Loss: 2341.0334 (1.48 %)

ETH SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 28 Oct 2026 22:12 → 10:10 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 2306.8$

Qty 0.2337 ETH

Size 539.0765$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)

Risk Setup

TP 2221.2166 (+3.71%)

TP $ 20$

SL 2341.0334 (-1.48%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -0.98% / -5.26$ MAE -1.19% MFE +0.64% 0.4R expires 29 Oct 10:12 Exit time_expired

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 231532)
#34 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 28/10/2026 22:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4957

Quality Score
0.497
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#34 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.48 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#34 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.48 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near 0.43×ATR
4h near 0.28×ATR
1d clear 7.85×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
788.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/10 22:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

27/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

28/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1)

28/10 21:00

Score : +3 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7200
Voir snapshot →
range compression range_bound
Strategic range

0.25

compression

0

Operational range

0.25

compression

0

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.73
Transition risk : 0.27
Score contribution (this trade) 0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 11.6%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.266
Δ 4h
▼-0.736
Δ 12h
▼-0.051
Δ 24h
▼-0.632

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 14.3%
1h 6.1%
4h 6.1%
24h 26.5%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 16.3% -0.30%
4h 14.3% -2.03%
24h 28.6% -1.40%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
8.2%
Expansion
8.2%
Tail ↑
+0.50
Tail ↓
+0.22
Dispersion : 0.146
Universe : 49 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.84
Snapshot évalué : 28/10 22:01 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4039
Score SMA
0.3989
Rank
#17 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7538
Rank Norm SMA
0.7121
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2916 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.37% · r3d: 1.27% · ema21_slope: -0.3522% · dist_ema21: -2.879%
Force Relative 25% 0.4467 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.16% · rs_3d: -0.24% · beta_24h: 1.358
Volume 20% 0.2452 rvol_20: 0.83× · zscore_50: -0.631 · trend: -24.20%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5278 ADX: 28.5 (trend) · Chop: 64.2 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.7653 ATR%: 3.704% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 28/10/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4965
Score SMA
0.5260
Rank
#34 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4957
Rank Norm SMA
0.5885
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3942 r1h: -1.717% · r4h: -2.149% · r1d: -1.76% · r3d: -0.04% · ema21_slope: -0.0041% · dist_ema21: -1.532%
Force Relative 25% 0.4648 rs_1h: -0.358% · rs_4h: -0.469% · rs_1d: -0.60% · rs_3d: -0.37% · beta_24h: 1.200
Volume 20% 0.3514 rvol_20: 1.00× · zscore_50: 0.168 · trend: -5.26%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7330 ADX: 28.0 (trend) · Chop: 37.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.763% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5536
Score SMA
0.5062
Rank
#18 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6154
Rank Norm SMA
0.6645
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4759 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.548% · r1d: 0.37% · r3d: 1.27% · ema21_slope: 0.0031% · dist_ema21: 0.426%
Force Relative 25% 0.4825 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.230% · rs_1d: -0.16% · rs_3d: -0.24% · beta_24h: 1.324
Volume 20% 0.5374 rvol_20: 1.62× · zscore_50: 0.925 · trend: 22.93%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5518 ADX: 25.7 (trend) · Chop: 58.3 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.357% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.484% (34.2334)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.637% 0.4R -0.256% 0.2R 2.5× 12
2h +0.637% 0.4R -0.256% 0.2R 2.5× 24
4h +0.637% 0.4R -1.188% 0.8R 0.5× 48
8h +0.637% 0.4R -1.188% 0.8R 0.5× 96
12h ★ +0.637% 0.4R -1.188% 0.8R 0.5× 144
24h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 288
36h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 432
48h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 576
72h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 864
⏱ MFE in 1397 min MAE in 832 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.38
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression range_high
30%
noisy_chop 34% mid — — 0.91 bull_high +3.86% -0.40 27/10 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range strong balanced normal bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 35% early near 0.3ATR near 0.3ATR 0.87 range_high -0.42% -0.01 28/10 16:00
1h ↔ neutral range range moderate balanced volatile_reversal bear_medium
48%
noisy_chop 45% late near 0.4ATR — 0.91 bear_medium -0.95% -0.05 28/10 21:00
15m ↔ neutral range range strong fading compression bear_low
45%
choppy 47% late near -1.4ATR — 0.92 bear_low_confirmed -1.19% -0.04 28/10 21:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#444571
↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.566 compression range_high
30%
noisy_chop 34% mid 37b -1.0ATR — — 0.47 13% ↓ -0.28 value +1.83 — #211832 0.91 bull_high +3.86% -0.40
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:16
4h
#444503
↔ neutral range range strong balanced 0.679 normal bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 35% early 2b 0.4ATR near 0.3ATR near 0.3ATR 1.45 71% ↔ +0.06 value +1.83 — #211832 0.87 range_high -0.42% -0.01
28/10 16:00
upd 28/10 20:12
1h anchor
#445326
↔ neutral range range moderate balanced 0.595 volatile_reversal bear_medium
48%
noisy_chop 45% late 5b -1.8ATR near 0.4ATR — 1.00 75% ↑ +0.38 above_value -0.85 — #212165 0.91 bear_medium -0.95% -0.05
28/10 21:00
upd 28/10 22:10
15m
#445259
↔ neutral range range strong fading 0.314 compression bear_low
45%
choppy 47% late 18b -5.1ATR near -1.4ATR — 3.92 92% ↑ +0.19 value +1.43 — #212032 0.92 bear_low_confirmed -1.19% -0.04
28/10 21:45
upd 28/10 22:00
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 37b — 5.367×ATR p70 -0.953×ATR p47
4h ↑ up early 2b — 1.188×ATR p0 +0.417×ATR p37
1h ↓ down late 5b — 4.428×ATR p84 -1.773×ATR p86
15m ↓ down late 18b — 6.682×ATR p97 -5.108×ATR p100

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7041
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.86×ATR dur=52b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 2341.03335881
  5. tp_price: 2221.21660297
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.70411735442577
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-10-29T14:12:35.115493
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.70411735442577
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.1136
  14. obi_top10 : 0.1136
  15. micro_price : 2305.80572078
  16. spread_pct : 0.000434
  17. mid_price : 2305.805
  18. bid_wall_price :
  19. bid_wall_size :
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price :
  22. ask_wall_size :
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.0732
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0402
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7310
  30. aggregation_tick : 10
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    2364.1
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    2314.5
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    2339.3
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793055600
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793239200
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.8615
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    52
  43. balance_zone_quality: loose
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7041
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793235600
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    2314.5
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.75
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.4442
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    1
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    1
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    11
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    10
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 17.33358811
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
52
inside_close_ratio
0.75
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4442

Signaux confirmants (24)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 22:12 2306.80000000 0%
2 22:23 2306.80000000 0%
3 22:34 2306.80000000 0%
4 22:43 2302.60000000 -0.182%
5 22:53 2302.60000000 -0.182%
6 23:03 2302.60000000 -0.182%
7 23:13 2311.80000000 +0.217%
8 23:23 2311.80000000 +0.217%
9 23:33 2311.80000000 +0.217%
10 23:42 2304.50000000 -0.1%
11 23:51 2304.50000000 -0.1%
12 00:01 2304.50000000 -0.1%
13 00:14 2304.90000000 -0.082%
14 00:23 2304.90000000 -0.082%
15 00:33 2304.90000000 -0.082%
16 00:43 2312.20000000 +0.234%
17 00:51 2312.20000000 +0.234%
18 01:01 2312.20000000 +0.234%
19 03:14 2311.70000000 +0.212%
20 03:23 2311.70000000 +0.212%
21 03:34 2307.70000000 +0.039%
22 03:43 2307.70000000 +0.039%
23 03:53 2307.70000000 +0.039%
24 04:04 2307.70000000 +0.039%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7310ms Confidence avant OB : 70% → 70%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.114
avg 0.073 ± 0.040
OBI Top 10 0.114

Microstructure

Mid Price
2,305.8050
Micro Price
2,305.8057
Spread
0.0004%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2306.8 2341.0334 2221.2166 2.5 1830.1
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2306.8
  • Stop Loss: 2341.0334
  • Take Profit: 2221.2166

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2341.0334 - 2306.8 = 34.2334

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2306.8 - 2221.2166 = 85.5834

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 85.5834 / 34.2334 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
539.0765 100 0.2337 5.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 34.2334

Taille de position = 8 / 34.2334 = 0.23

Taille de position USD = 0.23 x 2306.8 = 530.56

Donc, tu peux acheter 0.23 avec un stoploss a 2341.0334

Avec un position size USD de 530.56$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 0.23 x 34.2334 = 7.87

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.87$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 0.23 x 85.5834 = 19.68

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.68$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 0.23
  • Taille de position USD 530.56
  • Perte potentielle 7.87
  • Gain potentiel 19.68
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
3.71 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.48 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-5.26 $ -0.98
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.1878 % 80.04 % 22
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
2306.8 2341.0334 2221.2166 2.5 1830.1
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 2306.8
  • Stop Loss: 2341.0334
  • Take Profit: 2221.2166

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 2341.0334 - 2306.8 = 34.2334

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 2306.8 - 2221.2166 = 85.5834

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 85.5834 / 34.2334 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.484% (34.2334)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.637% 0.4R -0.256% 0.2R 2.5× 12
2h +0.637% 0.4R -0.256% 0.2R 2.5× 24
4h +0.637% 0.4R -1.188% 0.8R 0.5× 48
8h +0.637% 0.4R -1.188% 0.8R 0.5× 96
12h ★ +0.637% 0.4R -1.188% 0.8R 0.5× 144
24h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 288
36h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 432
48h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 576
72h +5.796% 3.9R -3.100% 2.1R 1.9× 864
⏱ MFE in 1397 min MAE in 832 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 2 weeks ago

Commentaires

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