Short Trade on SOL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 4.13 SOL at 99.585$ per unit. Take profit: 94.7471 (4.86 %) & Stop Loss: 101.5202 (1.94 %)
28 Oct 2026 at 22:13:01
hyperliquid
SOL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
28 Oct 2026 22:13
→ 10:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 99.585$
Qty 4.134 SOL
Size 411.6839$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 94.7471 (+4.86%)
TP $ 20$
SL 101.5202 (-1.94%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.20%
/ -4.94$
MAE -1.34%
MFE +0.39%
0.2R
expires
29 Oct 10:12
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231534)
#35 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 28/10/2026 22:00
score du 28/10/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5692
Quality Score
0.496
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#35 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#35 / 66
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.82×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.29×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.80×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
166.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/10 22:00
28/10 22:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 28/10 21:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7200
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
11.6%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.266
Δ 4h
▼-0.736
Δ 12h
▼-0.051
Δ 24h
▼-0.632
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 14.3% |
| 1h | 6.1% |
| 4h | 6.1% |
| 24h | 26.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 16.3% | -0.30% |
| 4h | 14.3% | -2.03% |
| 24h | 28.6% | -1.40% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
8.2%
Expansion
8.2%
Tail ↑
+0.50
Tail ↓
+0.22
Dispersion :
0.146
Universe :
49
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
28/10 22:01
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3813
Score SMA
0.3695
Rank
#22
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6769
Rank Norm SMA
0.6262
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3054 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.04% · r3d: 1.05% · ema21_slope: -0.3730% · dist_ema21: -2.898% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4491 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.50% · rs_3d: -0.47% · beta_24h: 1.301 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2175 | rvol_20: 0.80× · zscore_50: -0.688 · trend: -38.29% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4699 | ADX: 27.0 (trend) · Chop: 69.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6341 | ATR%: 4.098% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4956
Score SMA
0.5236
Rank
#35
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5692
Rank Norm SMA
0.5691
Calculé le
28/10/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3752 | r1h: -1.928% · r4h: -2.825% · r1d: -1.75% · r3d: -1.19% · ema21_slope: 0.0033% · dist_ema21: -1.906% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4325 | rs_1h: -0.569% · rs_4h: -1.145% · rs_1d: -0.59% · rs_3d: -1.52% · beta_24h: 1.375 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6053 | rvol_20: 1.70× · zscore_50: 1.666 · trend: 27.12% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7409 | ADX: 28.9 (trend) · Chop: 35.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.875% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5382
Score SMA
0.4860
Rank
#25
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5462
Rank Norm SMA
0.5562
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4759 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.602% · r1d: 1.04% · r3d: 1.05% · ema21_slope: -0.0095% · dist_ema21: 0.628% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4902 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.283% · rs_1d: 0.50% · rs_3d: -0.47% · beta_24h: 1.554 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4789 | rvol_20: 1.53× · zscore_50: 0.414 · trend: 14.61% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5143 | ADX: 18.6 (weak) · Chop: 55.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.485% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.943%
(1.9352)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -0.557% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -0.557% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -1.200% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -1.200% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.392% | 0.2R | -1.341% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1326 min
MAE in 831 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.77
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.88 | bull_high | +3.86% | -0.57 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near 0.3ATR | near -0.5ATR | 0.86 | range_high | -0.37% | -0.01 | 28/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.88 | bear_medium | -0.95% | -0.08 | 28/10 21:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
59%
|
choppy 54% | late | — | — | 0.87 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.19% | -0.10 | 28/10 21:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444580
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.656 | compression | bull_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 35% | late 31b -1.0ATR | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.53 | 14% | ↓ -0.27 | value | +1.46 | — | #211834 | 0.88 | bull_high | +3.86% | -0.57 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:16
|
|
4h
#444508
|
↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | 0.666 | expansion | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 2b 0.5ATR | near 0.3ATR | near -0.5ATR | 1.53 | 61% | ↑ +0.19 | value | +1.46 | — | #211834 | 0.86 | range_high | -0.37% | -0.01 |
28/10 16:00
upd 28/10 20:12
|
|
1h
anchor #445329
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.502 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late 5b -1.9ATR | near -0.8ATR | — | 1.70 | 92% | ↑ +0.21 | value | -1.63 | inside | #212167 | 0.88 | bear_medium | -0.95% | -0.08 |
28/10 21:00
upd 28/10 22:10
|
|
15m
#445261
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.298 | compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
59%
|
choppy 54% | late 18b -5.6ATR | — | — | 6.25 | 98% | ↑ +0.49 | above_value | +0.70 | — | #212034 | 0.87 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.19% | -0.10 |
28/10 21:45
upd 28/10 22:00
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 31b | — | 5.623×ATR | p83 | -1.018×ATR | p57 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.289×ATR | p0 | +0.455×ATR | p33 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 4.582×ATR | p84 | -1.917×ATR | p93 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 18b | — | 7.23×ATR | p100 | -5.598×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7585
- reason: down_bo width=2.94×ATR dur=62b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)
- stop_price: 101.52017405
- tp_price: 94.74706488
- atr:
- score: 0.68847671251971
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T14:12:53.588412
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.68847671251971
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1696
- obi_top10 : -0.1696
- micro_price : 99.51445833
- spread_pct : 0.001005
- mid_price : 99.5145
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2025
- obi_top5_std : 0.0247
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6850
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
102.7
- balance_zone_bottom:
100.168
- balance_zone_mid:
101.434
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793019600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793239200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9382
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
62
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.6885
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793235600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
100.168
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7419
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6765
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
15
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.86174047 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
62
inside_close_ratio
0.7419
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6765
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:13 | 99.58500000 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:24 | 99.58500000 | 0% |
| 3 | 22:34 | 99.54400000 | -0.041% |
| 4 | 22:44 | 99.54400000 | -0.041% |
| 5 | 22:53 | 99.54400000 | -0.041% |
| 6 | 23:03 | 99.54400000 | -0.041% |
| 7 | 23:42 | 99.58500000 | 0% |
| 8 | 23:51 | 99.58500000 | 0% |
| 9 | 00:01 | 99.58500000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6850ms
Confidence avant OB :
69%
→
76%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.170
avg -0.203
± 0.025
OBI Top 10
-0.170
Microstructure
Mid Price
99.5145
Micro Price
99.5145
Spread
0.0010%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99.585 | 101.5202 | 94.7471 | 2.5 | 71.674 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 99.585
- Stop Loss: 101.5202
- Take Profit: 94.7471
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 101.5202 - 99.585 = 1.9352
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 99.585 - 94.7471 = 4.8379
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.8379 / 1.9352 = 2.4999
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 411.6839 | 100 | 4.134 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.9352
Taille de position = 8 / 1.9352 = 4.13
Taille de position USD = 4.13 x 99.585 = 411.29
Donc, tu peux acheter 4.13 avec un stoploss a 101.5202
Avec un position size USD de 411.29$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4.13 x 1.9352 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4.13 x 4.8379 = 19.98
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.98$
Résumé
- Taille de position 4.13
- Taille de position USD 411.29
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.98
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4999
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.86 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.94 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.94 $ | -1.20 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3406 % | 68.99 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99.585 | 101.5202 | 94.7471 | 2.5 | 71.674 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 99.585
- Stop Loss: 101.5202
- Take Profit: 94.7471
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 101.5202 - 99.585 = 1.9352
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 99.585 - 94.7471 = 4.8379
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.8379 / 1.9352 = 2.4999
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.943%
(1.9352)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -0.557% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -0.557% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -1.200% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.392% | 0.2R | -1.200% | 0.6R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.392% | 0.2R | -1.341% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 288 |
| 36h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 432 |
| 48h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.389% | 3.8R | -3.600% | 1.9R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1326 min
MAE in 831 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.