Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 752.61 JUP at 0.271$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2443 (9.82 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2815 (3.91 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 01:07:03
hyperliquid
JUP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 01:07
→ 11:55
· 10 hours
Position
Entry 0.2709$
Qty 752.609 JUP
Size 203.8968$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.2443 (+9.82%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.2815 (-3.91%)
SL $ 7.98$
RR 2.51
Status
loss
PnL
-3.91%
/ -7.98$
MAE -5.80%
MFE +1.93%
0.5R
expires
29 Oct 13:06
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231840)
#55 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 01:00
score du 29/10/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3777
Quality Score
0.457
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#55 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#55 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -2.57×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.26×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 01:01
29/10 01:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 28/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 28/10 23:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7212
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
early_expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
9.3%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→+0.020
Δ 4h
▼-0.289
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.605
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 78.0% |
| 1h | 74.0% |
| 4h | 6.0% |
| 24h | 10.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 76.0% | +0.07% |
| 4h | 14.0% | -3.22% |
| 24h | 16.0% | -3.28% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.0%
Down ≥1σ
64.0%
Expansion
66.0%
Tail ↑
+0.76
Tail ↓
+0.46
Dispersion :
0.173
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 01:01
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2971
Score SMA
0.3410
Rank
#53
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2000
Rank Norm SMA
0.4103
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3180 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.61% · r3d: -0.24% · ema21_slope: -0.5147% · dist_ema21: -6.867% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3745 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.08% · rs_3d: -1.75% · beta_24h: 1.711 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1927 | rvol_20: 0.72× · zscore_50: -0.648 · trend: -56.73% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4636 | ADX: 20.3 (weak) · Chop: 63.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.514% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.4567
Score SMA
—
Rank
—
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3777
Rank Norm SMA
—
Calculé le
29/10/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3417 | r1h: 0.672% · r4h: -3.667% · r1d: -4.33% · r3d: -3.06% · ema21_slope: -0.0637% · dist_ema21: -3.045% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3834 | rs_1h: 0.183% · rs_4h: -2.622% · rs_1d: -3.42% · rs_3d: -3.21% · beta_24h: 2.245 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2630 | rvol_20: 0.27× · zscore_50: -0.402 · trend: 17.36% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7046 | ADX: 24.6 (weak) · Chop: 26.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.588% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4542
Score SMA
0.4748
Rank
#41
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3563
Rank Norm SMA
0.4781
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1924 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -5.120% · r1d: -5.04% · r3d: -2.69% · ema21_slope: -0.1291% · dist_ema21: -5.008% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2809 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.299% · rs_1d: -3.47% · rs_3d: -3.03% · beta_24h: 2.541 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6605 | rvol_20: 2.09× · zscore_50: 1.127 · trend: 48.73% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6277 | ADX: 26.2 (trend) · Chop: 49.4 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.928% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.913%
(0.0106)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.100% | 0.0R | -0.919% | 0.2R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.292% | 0.3R | -0.919% | 0.2R | 1.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.931% | 0.5R | -0.919% | 0.2R | 2.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.931% | 0.5R | -0.982% | 0.3R | 2.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.931% | 0.5R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 287 |
| 36h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 575 |
| 72h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1152 min
MAE in 662 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.11
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 46% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.93 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near -2.6ATR | — | 0.56 | bear_high | -2.15% | -0.51 | 28/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | 0.75 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.08% | -0.28 | 28/10 23:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_medium |
62%
|
noisy_chop 52% | early | — | — | 0.79 | range_low | -0.60% | -0.31 | 29/10 00:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444698
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.576 | compression | bull_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 46% | mid 20b -1.0ATR | — | — | 0.72 | 55% | ↓ -0.62 | above_value | +0.88 | — | #211863 | 0.58 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.93 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:23
|
|
4h
#446109
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.747 | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late 1b -2.0ATR | near -2.6ATR | — | 2.09 | 58% | ↑ +0.23 | above_value | -2.77 | inside | #212477 | 0.56 | bear_high | -2.15% | -0.51 |
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 00:14
|
|
1h
anchor #446108
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.419 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late 7b -2.3ATR | — | — | 0.59 | 72% | ↑ +0.33 | above_value | -2.77 | inside | #212477 | 0.75 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.08% | -0.28 |
28/10 23:00
upd 29/10 00:14
|
|
15m
#446440
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.371 | normal | bear_medium |
62%
|
noisy_chop 52% | early 3b -1.1ATR | — | — | 0.23 | 46% | ↓ -0.37 | above_value | -2.77 | — | #212477 | 0.79 | range_low | -0.60% | -0.31 |
29/10 00:45
upd 29/10 01:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 20b | — | 4.4×ATR | p58 | -0.967×ATR | p60 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 1b | — | 3.119×ATR | p31 | -1.982×ATR | p81 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 5.702×ATR | p86 | -2.306×ATR | p87 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.891×ATR | p9 | -1.074×ATR | p58 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7968
- reason: down_bo width=2.44×ATR dur=75b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.28154969
- tp_price: 0.24434577
- atr:
- score: 0.79684003000444
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T17:06:55.601549
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.79684003000444
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.067
- obi_top10 : 0.042
- micro_price : 0.27138015
- spread_pct : 0.073719
- mid_price : 0.2714
- bid_wall_price : 0.27
- bid_wall_size : 687936.2
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.274
- ask_wall_size : 975469.2
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0831
- obi_top5_std : 0.0347
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7150
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.28611
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.276175
- balance_zone_mid:
0.2811425
- balance_zone_start_time:
1792983600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793250000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4399
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
75
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7968
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793235600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.276175
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7333
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
4
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2905
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
20
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00407194 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
75
inside_close_ratio
0.7333
bars_since_breakout
4
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2905
Signaux confirmants (9)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:07 | 0.27092000 | +0.007% |
| 2 | 01:16 | 0.27092000 | +0.007% |
| 3 | 01:25 | 0.27092000 | +0.007% |
| 4 | 01:36 | 0.27266000 | +0.65% |
| 5 | 01:45 | 0.27266000 | +0.65% |
| 6 | 01:54 | 0.27266000 | +0.65% |
| 7 | 02:07 | 0.27266000 | +0.65% |
| 8 | 02:18 | 0.27094000 | +0.015% |
| 9 | 02:28 | 0.27094000 | +0.015% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7150ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.067
avg -0.083
± 0.035
OBI Top 10
0.042
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.2714
Micro Price
0.2714
Spread
0.0737%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.2700
Size
687,936.20
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.2740
Size
975,469.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2709 | 0.2815 | 0.2443 | 2.51 | 0.2598 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2709
- Stop Loss: 0.2815
- Take Profit: 0.2443
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2815 - 0.2709 = 0.0106
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2709 - 0.2443 = 0.0266
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0266 / 0.0106 = 2.5094
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203.8968 | 100 | 752.609 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0106
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0106 = 754.72
Taille de position USD = 754.72 x 0.2709 = 204.45
Donc, tu peux acheter 754.72 avec un stoploss a 0.2815
Avec un position size USD de 204.45$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 754.72 x 0.0106 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 754.72 x 0.0266 = 20.08
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.08$
Résumé
- Taille de position 754.72
- Taille de position USD 204.45
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.08
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5094
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.82 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.91 % | 7.98 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.98 $ | -3.91 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3263 % | 110.57 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2709 | 0.2815 | 0.2443 | 2.51 | 0.2598 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2709
- Stop Loss: 0.2815
- Take Profit: 0.2443
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2815 - 0.2709 = 0.0106
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2709 - 0.2443 = 0.0266
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0266 / 0.0106 = 2.5094
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.913%
(0.0106)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.100% | 0.0R | -0.919% | 0.2R | 0.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.292% | 0.3R | -0.919% | 0.2R | 1.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.931% | 0.5R | -0.919% | 0.2R | 2.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.931% | 0.5R | -0.982% | 0.3R | 2.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.931% | 0.5R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 287 |
| 36h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 575 |
| 72h | +13.005% | 3.3R | -5.799% | 1.5R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1152 min
MAE in 662 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.