Short Trade on ASTER (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 907.17 ASTER at 0.702$ per unit. Take profit: 0.6802 (3.15 %) & Stop Loss: 0.7111 (1.25 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 01:10:05
hyperliquid
ASTER
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 01:10
→ 09:25
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 0.7023$
Qty 907.1714 ASTER
Size 637.0974$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.6802 (+3.15%)
TP $ 20.05$
SL 0.7111 (-1.25%)
SL $ 7.98$
RR 2.51
Status
loss
PnL
-1.25%
/ -7.98$
MAE -4.31%
MFE +0.64%
0.5R
expires
29 Oct 13:09
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 231861)
#3 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 01:00
score du 29/10/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7216
Quality Score
0.633
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#3 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.25 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#3 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.25 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.09×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.65×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.54×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 01:02
29/10 01:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) 28/10 23:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7212
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
early_expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
9.3%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→+0.020
Δ 4h
▼-0.289
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.605
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 78.0% |
| 1h | 74.0% |
| 4h | 6.0% |
| 24h | 10.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 76.0% | +0.07% |
| 4h | 14.0% | -3.22% |
| 24h | 16.0% | -3.28% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.0%
Down ≥1σ
64.0%
Expansion
66.0%
Tail ↑
+0.76
Tail ↓
+0.46
Dispersion :
0.173
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.84
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 01:01
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4087
Score SMA
0.4152
Rank
#16
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7692
Rank Norm SMA
0.7061
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4707 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.04% · r3d: 0.22% · ema21_slope: -0.0343% · dist_ema21: -0.724% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4850 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.57% · rs_3d: -1.29% · beta_24h: 0.968 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1252 | rvol_20: 0.28× · zscore_50: -1.123 · trend: -66.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3299 | ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 79.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7169 | ATR%: 3.849% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.6328
Score SMA
0.5321
Rank
#3
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7216
Rank Norm SMA
0.5841
Calculé le
29/10/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4420 | r1h: 0.307% · r4h: -0.950% · r1d: -2.21% · r3d: -0.19% · ema21_slope: -0.0499% · dist_ema21: -0.709% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4752 | rs_1h: -0.183% · rs_4h: 0.095% · rs_1d: -1.30% · rs_3d: -0.35% · beta_24h: 0.757 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9873 | rvol_20: 3.00× · zscore_50: 2.812 · trend: 135.04% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6398 | ADX: 19.5 (weak) · Chop: 41.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.606% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.6102
Score SMA
0.5121
Rank
#7
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8488
Rank Norm SMA
0.6361
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4453 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.489% · r1d: -2.33% · r3d: -0.21% · ema21_slope: 0.0161% · dist_ema21: -1.395% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5049 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.333% · rs_1d: -0.77% · rs_3d: -0.55% · beta_24h: 0.766 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9177 | rvol_20: 3.88× · zscore_50: 2.364 · trend: 70.10% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4456 | ADX: 11.1 (weak) · Chop: 56.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.213% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.253%
(0.0088)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.422% | 0.3R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 1.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.551% | 0.4R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 2.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.644% | 0.5R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.644% | 0.5R | -0.470% | 0.4R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.644% | 0.5R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1149 min
MAE in 634 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.53
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early | — | — | 0.59 | bull_high | +4.55% | +0.16 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | weak | grind | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late | near -0.7ATR | — | 0.58 | bear_high | -2.15% | +0.02 | 28/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | 0.61 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.08% | -0.06 | 28/10 23:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 50% | early | — | — | 0.54 | range_low | -0.60% | +0.01 | 29/10 00:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444745
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.651 | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early 28b 0.0ATR | — | — | 0.59 | 28% | ↓ -0.36 | above_value | -0.30 | — | #211882 | 0.59 | bull_high | +4.55% | +0.16 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#446172
|
↔ neutral | range | range | weak | grind | 0.511 | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 36% | late 4b -1.3ATR | near -0.7ATR | — | 3.88 | 87% | ↑ +0.35 | below_value | -2.36 | — | #212499 | 0.58 | bear_high | -2.15% | +0.02 |
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 00:18
|
|
1h
anchor #446171
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.505 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late 6b -1.8ATR | — | — | 0.67 | 70% | ↑ +0.63 | below_value | -2.36 | — | #212499 | 0.61 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.08% | -0.06 |
28/10 23:00
upd 29/10 00:18
|
|
15m
#446462
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | 0.362 | volatile_reversal | bear_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 50% | early 3b 0.0ATR | — | — | 0.10 | 49% | ↓ -0.79 | below_value | -2.36 | — | #212499 | 0.54 | range_low | -0.60% | +0.01 |
29/10 00:45
upd 29/10 01:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 28b | — | 2.718×ATR | p4 | -0.022×ATR | p2 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 2.496×ATR | p19 | -1.261×ATR | p84 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 3.153×ATR | p69 | -1.844×ATR | p92 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 2.675×ATR | p41 | +0.001×ATR | p1 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7645
- reason: down_bo width=1.92×ATR dur=46b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.71110862
- tp_price: 0.68024346
- atr:
- score: 0.76447999237345
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T17:09:57.115526
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.76447999237345
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.02
- obi_top10 : 0.0724
- micro_price : 0.70192094
- spread_pct : 0.028498
- mid_price : 0.7019
- bid_wall_price : 0.695
- bid_wall_size : 569662
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.71
- ask_wall_size : 496495
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.02
- obi_top5_std : 0.001
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7169
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.71467
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.70672
- balance_zone_mid:
0.710695
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793088000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793250000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9221
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
46
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7645
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793232000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.70672
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6522
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
5
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.071
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.00413616 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
46
inside_close_ratio
0.6522
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
1.071
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7169ms
Confidence avant OB :
76%
→
76%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.020
avg 0.020
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.072
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.7019
Micro Price
0.7019
Spread
0.0285%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.6950
Size
569,662.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.7100
Size
496,495.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7023 | 0.7111 | 0.6802 | 2.51 | 0.5239 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.7023
- Stop Loss: 0.7111
- Take Profit: 0.6802
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7111 - 0.7023 = 0.0087999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.7023 - 0.6802 = 0.0221
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0221 / 0.0087999999999999 = 2.5114
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 637.0974 | 100 | 907.1714 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0087999999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0087999999999999 = 909.09
Taille de position USD = 909.09 x 0.7023 = 638.45
Donc, tu peux acheter 909.09 avec un stoploss a 0.7111
Avec un position size USD de 638.45$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 909.09 x 0.0087999999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 909.09 x 0.0221 = 20.09
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.09$
Résumé
- Taille de position 909.09
- Taille de position USD 638.45
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.09
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5114
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.15 % | 20.05 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.25 % | 7.98 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.98 $ | -1.25 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3299 % | 106.14 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7023 | 0.7111 | 0.6802 | 2.51 | 0.5239 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.7023
- Stop Loss: 0.7111
- Take Profit: 0.6802
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7111 - 0.7023 = 0.0087999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.7023 - 0.6802 = 0.0221
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0221 / 0.0087999999999999 = 2.5114
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.253%
(0.0088)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.422% | 0.3R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 1.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.551% | 0.4R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 2.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.644% | 0.5R | -0.248% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.644% | 0.5R | -0.470% | 0.4R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.644% | 0.5R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 0.2× | 143 |
| 24h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.207% | 5.0R | -4.314% | 3.4R | 1.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1149 min
MAE in 634 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.