29 Oct 2026 at 01:16:20 hyperliquid

Short Trade on PYTH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 2905.7 PYTH at 0.0705$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06365 (9.75 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07329 (3.91 %)

PYTH SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Oct 2026 01:16 → 09:15 · 7 hours

Position

Entry 0.07053$

Qty 2905.6992 PYTH

Size 204.9477$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.06365 (+9.75%)

TP $ 19.99$

SL 0.07329 (-3.91%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR 2.49

Status loss PnL -3.91% / -8.02$ MAE -8.30% MFE +1.91% 0.5R expires 29 Oct 13:16

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 231839)
#57 / 70
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 01:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6044

Quality Score
0.440
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#57 / 70
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#57 / 70
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.91 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.44×ATR
4h near -0.53×ATR
1d near -1.08×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
1.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 01:16
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

27/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

28/10 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

29/10 00:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7212
Voir snapshot →
range compression range_bound
Strategic range

0.25

compression

0

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical bear

0.55

early_expansion

+1

Micro bear

0.90

expansion

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.73
Transition risk : 0.27
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 9.3%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→+0.020
Δ 4h
▼-0.289
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.605

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 78.0%
1h 74.0%
4h 6.0%
24h 10.0%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 76.0% +0.07%
4h 14.0% -3.22%
24h 16.0% -3.28%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.0%
Down ≥1σ
64.0%
Expansion
66.0%
Tail ↑
+0.76
Tail ↓
+0.46
Dispersion : 0.173
Universe : 50 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.84
Snapshot évalué : 29/10 01:01 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3695
Score SMA
0.4704
Rank
#26 / 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6154
Rank Norm SMA
0.7673
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3962 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.93% · r3d: -1.77% · ema21_slope: -0.3319% · dist_ema21: -2.699%
Force Relative 25% 0.4293 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.40% · rs_3d: -3.28% · beta_24h: -0.168
Volume 20% 0.2006 rvol_20: 0.47× · zscore_50: -0.246 · trend: -37.25%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6879 ADX: 29.0 (trend) · Chop: 44.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 9.322% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.4401
Score SMA
0.5165
Rank
#57 / 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6044
Rank Norm SMA
0.4467
Calculé le
29/10/2026 01:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3277 r1h: 0.094% · r4h: -4.868% · r1d: -3.63% · r3d: -5.19% · ema21_slope: -0.0111% · dist_ema21: -2.542%
Force Relative 25% 0.3253 rs_1h: -0.396% · rs_4h: -3.823% · rs_1d: -2.72% · rs_3d: -5.34% · beta_24h: 1.801
Volume 20% 0.2935 rvol_20: 0.19× · zscore_50: -0.229 · trend: 31.62%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6782 ADX: 21.4 (weak) · Chop: 36.6 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.619% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.4564
Score SMA
0.4234
Rank
#40 / 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6405
Rank Norm SMA
0.3212
Calculé le
29/10/2026 00:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2651 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.750% · r1d: -3.90% · r3d: -4.88% · ema21_slope: -0.0832% · dist_ema21: -3.474%
Force Relative 25% 0.3392 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -2.929% · rs_1d: -2.33% · rs_3d: -5.22% · beta_24h: 2.147
Volume 20% 0.6944 rvol_20: 2.22× · zscore_50: 1.232 · trend: 52.86%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4086 ADX: 14.7 (weak) · Chop: 64.7 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.9187 ATR%: 3.244% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.913% (0.0028)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.187% 0.3R 0.0× 12
2h +1.601% 0.4R -1.187% 0.3R 1.4× 24
4h +1.645% 0.4R -1.187% 0.3R 1.4× 48
8h +1.914% 0.5R -7.173% 1.8R 0.3× 96
12h ★ +1.914% 0.5R -8.296% 2.1R 0.2× 144
24h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 288
36h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 432
48h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 576
72h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 1163 min MAE in 483 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.38
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind normal bull_high
56%
noisy_chop 37% mid near -1.1ATR — 0.57 bull_high +4.55% -0.73 27/10 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive normal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 39% mid near -0.5ATR — 0.51 bear_high -2.15% -0.55 28/10 20:00
1h ↓ down range range strong balanced volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 43% mid — — 0.58 range_medium -0.58% -0.12 29/10 00:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind normal bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 51% mid — — 0.62 range_low -0.60% -0.33 29/10 00:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#444694
↑ up transition bullish_transition moderate grind 0.702 normal bull_high
56%
noisy_chop 37% mid 13b -0.3ATR near -1.1ATR — 0.47 83% ↓ -0.55 above_value -0.67 — #211862 0.57 bull_high +4.55% -0.73
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:23
4h
#446107
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive 0.411 normal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 39% mid 1b -1.2ATR near -0.5ATR — 2.22 80% ↓ -0.29 below_value -3.55 — #212476 0.51 bear_high -2.15% -0.55
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 00:14
1h anchor
#446511
↓ down range range strong balanced 0.400 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 43% mid 7b -1.4ATR — — 0.19 34% ↑ +0.85 below_value -3.58 — #212689 0.58 range_medium -0.58% -0.12
29/10 00:00
upd 29/10 01:10
15m
#446439
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind 0.359 normal bear_high
62%
noisy_chop 51% mid 5b -1.4ATR — — 0.04 17% ↔ -0.14 below_value -3.55 — #212476 0.62 range_low -0.60% -0.33
29/10 00:45
upd 29/10 01:02
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 13b — 3.974×ATR p50 -0.268×ATR p15
4h ↓ down mid 1b — 1.977×ATR p0 -1.23×ATR p69
1h ↓ down mid 7b — 3.9×ATR p77 -1.406×ATR p67
15m ↑ up mid 5b — 1.123×ATR p3 -1.4×ATR p66

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7734
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.77×ATR dur=54b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 0.07328621
  5. tp_price: 0.06364996
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.77342741411671
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-10-29T17:16:11.820721
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.77342741411671
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.072
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0285
  15. micro_price : 0.07087688
  16. spread_pct : 0.056449
  17. mid_price : 0.07088
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.0706
  19. bid_wall_size : 1508746
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.0711
  22. ask_wall_size : 1812511.2
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0616
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0354
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7028
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.0001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.07467
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.071687
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.0731785
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793059200
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793250000
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.7693
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    54
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7734
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793235600
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.071687
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.7963
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    4
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.0713
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    2
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    8
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00107715
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
54
inside_close_ratio
0.7963
bars_since_breakout
4
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0713

Signaux confirmants (21)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 01:16 0.07053300 +0.004%
2 01:25 0.07053300 +0.004%
3 01:36 0.07109100 +0.795%
4 01:45 0.07109100 +0.795%
5 01:54 0.07109100 +0.795%
6 02:07 0.07109100 +0.795%
7 02:18 0.07091100 +0.54%
8 02:28 0.07091100 +0.54%
9 02:39 0.07060600 +0.108%
10 02:48 0.07060600 +0.108%
11 02:57 0.07060600 +0.108%
12 03:08 0.07018100 -0.495%
13 03:18 0.07018100 -0.495%
14 03:28 0.07018100 -0.495%
15 04:41 0.07017900 -0.498%
16 04:50 0.07017900 -0.498%
17 04:59 0.07017900 -0.498%
18 06:39 0.07023700 -0.415%
19 06:48 0.07023700 -0.415%
20 06:57 0.07023700 -0.415%
21 07:08 0.07044000 -0.128%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7028ms Confidence avant OB : 77% → 77%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.072
avg -0.062 ± 0.035
OBI Top 10 -0.029

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.0709
Micro Price
0.0709
Spread
0.0564%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.0706
Size
1,508,746.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.0711
Size
1,812,511.20

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07053 0.07329 0.06365 2.49 0.05586
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07053
  • Stop Loss: 0.07329
  • Take Profit: 0.06365

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07329 - 0.07053 = 0.00276

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07053 - 0.06365 = 0.00688

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00688 / 0.00276 = 2.4928

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
204.9477 100 2905.6992 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00276

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00276 = 2898.55

Taille de position USD = 2898.55 x 0.07053 = 204.43

Donc, tu peux acheter 2898.55 avec un stoploss a 0.07329

Avec un position size USD de 204.43$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2898.55 x 0.00276 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2898.55 x 0.00688 = 19.94

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.94$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 2898.55
  • Taille de position USD 204.43
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.94
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4928

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
9.75 % 19.99 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.91 % 8.02 $
PNL PNL %
-8.02 $ -3.91
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-7.1728 % 183.3 % 7
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07053 0.07329 0.06365 2.49 0.05586
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07053
  • Stop Loss: 0.07329
  • Take Profit: 0.06365

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07329 - 0.07053 = 0.00276

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07053 - 0.06365 = 0.00688

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00688 / 0.00276 = 2.4928

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.913% (0.0028)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.187% 0.3R 0.0× 12
2h +1.601% 0.4R -1.187% 0.3R 1.4× 24
4h +1.645% 0.4R -1.187% 0.3R 1.4× 48
8h +1.914% 0.5R -7.173% 1.8R 0.3× 96
12h ★ +1.914% 0.5R -8.296% 2.1R 0.2× 144
24h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 288
36h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 432
48h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 576
72h +16.878% 4.3R -8.296% 2.1R 2.0× 864
⏱ MFE in 1163 min MAE in 483 min ✗ Adverse move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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