Short Trade on ETH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.27 ETH at 2313.3$ per unit. Take profit: 2239.1916 (3.2 %) & Stop Loss: 2342.9434 (1.28 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 04:16:44
hyperliquid
ETH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 04:16
→ 10:35
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 2313.3$
Qty 0.2699 ETH
Size 624.3019$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 2239.1916 (+3.2%)
TP $ 20$
SL 2342.9434 (-1.28%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.28%
/ -8$
MAE -2.81%
MFE +0.48%
0.4R
expires
29 Oct 16:16
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 232018)
#7 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 04:00
score du 29/10/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7261
Quality Score
0.530
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#7 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.28 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#7 / 70
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.28 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.23×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.24×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 7.85×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.04B $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 04:15
29/10 04:15
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) 29/10 03:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7225
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
22.7%
Macro
mixed_dispersion
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
▼-0.067
Δ 1h
▼-0.273
Δ 4h
▲+0.153
Δ 12h
▼-0.652
Δ 24h
▼-0.378
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 52.0% |
| 1h | 70.0% |
| 4h | 20.0% |
| 24h | 2.0% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 54.0% | +0.02% |
| 4h | 44.0% | -0.52% |
| 24h | 16.0% | -3.46% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
0.0%
Tail ↑
+0.25
Tail ↓
+0.31
Dispersion :
0.097
Universe :
50
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 04:16
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4039
Score SMA
0.3989
Rank
#17
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7538
Rank Norm SMA
0.7121
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2916 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.37% · r3d: 1.27% · ema21_slope: -0.3522% · dist_ema21: -2.879% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4467 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.16% · rs_3d: -0.24% · beta_24h: 1.358 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2452 | rvol_20: 0.83× · zscore_50: -0.631 · trend: -24.20% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5278 | ADX: 28.5 (trend) · Chop: 64.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7653 | ATR%: 3.704% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.5297
Score SMA
0.5263
Rank
#7
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7261
Rank Norm SMA
0.5942
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4682 | r1h: -0.138% · r4h: 0.056% · r1d: -2.16% · r3d: -0.36% · ema21_slope: -0.0541% · dist_ema21: -1.043% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4925 | rs_1h: 0.007% · rs_4h: 0.071% · rs_1d: -0.64% · rs_3d: -0.14% · beta_24h: 1.194 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6711 | rvol_20: 2.03× · zscore_50: 1.719 · trend: 34.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6981 | ADX: 23.8 (weak) · Chop: 33.2 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.726% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
Score brut
0.4762
Score SMA
0.5052
Rank
#23
/ 70
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7911
Rank Norm SMA
0.6685
Calculé le
29/10/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4261 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.056% · r1d: -2.16% · r3d: -0.36% · ema21_slope: -0.0007% · dist_ema21: -1.379% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4796 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.071% · rs_1d: -0.64% · rs_3d: -0.14% · beta_24h: 1.256 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4177 | rvol_20: 1.16× · zscore_50: 0.251 · trend: 21.19% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5584 | ADX: 25.1 (trend) · Chop: 56.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.484% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.281%
(29.6434)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.579% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.579% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.722% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.484% | 0.4R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1033 min
MAE in 468 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.36
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | range_high |
30%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | — | — | 0.91 | bull_high | +3.86% | -0.40 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 35% | mid | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.87 | bear_high | -2.12% | -0.05 | 29/10 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.91 | bear_medium | -1.03% | -0.04 | 29/10 03:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | near 0.4ATR | near 0.3ATR | 0.91 | range_low | -0.70% | +0.03 | 29/10 04:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444571
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.566 | compression | range_high |
30%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid 37b -1.0ATR | — | — | 0.47 | 13% | ↓ -0.28 | value | +1.83 | — | #211832 | 0.91 | bull_high | +3.86% | -0.40 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:16
|
|
4h
#447583
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.528 | expansion | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 35% | mid 2b -1.0ATR | near -1.2ATR | — | 1.16 | 63% | ↑ +0.19 | above_value | -1.14 | inside | #213084 | 0.87 | bear_high | -2.12% | -0.05 |
29/10 00:00
upd 29/10 04:12
|
|
1h
anchor #447582
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.526 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 2b -1.3ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 2.03 | 96% | ↔ -0.04 | above_value | -1.14 | — | #213084 | 0.91 | bear_medium | -1.03% | -0.04 |
29/10 03:00
upd 29/10 04:12
|
|
15m
#447659
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.492 | compression | bear_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early 1b -0.1ATR | near 0.4ATR | near 0.3ATR | 3.00 | 94% | ↑ +0.48 | above_value | -1.14 | — | #213084 | 0.91 | range_low | -0.70% | +0.03 |
29/10 04:00
upd 29/10 04:15
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 37b | — | 5.367×ATR | p70 | -0.953×ATR | p47 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 2.387×ATR | p18 | -0.995×ATR | p66 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 1.49×ATR | p4 | -1.253×ATR | p73 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 1.485×ATR | p0 | -0.139×ATR | p10 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7245
- reason: down_bo width=2.86×ATR dur=45b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 2342.94335117
- tp_price: 2239.19162208
- atr:
- score: 0.72447007108091
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-29T20:16:36.138698
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.72447007108091
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0218
- obi_top10 : 0.0218
- micro_price : 2315.51529448
- spread_pct : 0.000432
- mid_price : 2315.515
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.084
- obi_top5_std : 0.0379
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7241
- aggregation_tick : 10
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
2364.1
- balance_zone_bottom:
2318.6
- balance_zone_mid:
2341.35
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793102400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793260800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.8556
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
45
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7245
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793253600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
2318.6
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7778
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3326
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 15.93351169 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
45
inside_close_ratio
0.7778
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3326
Signaux confirmants (12)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:16 | 2313.30000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 04:26 | 2313.30000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 04:37 | 2315.40000000 | +0.091% |
| 4 | 04:46 | 2315.40000000 | +0.091% |
| 5 | 04:55 | 2315.40000000 | +0.091% |
| 6 | 05:06 | 2318.40000000 | +0.22% |
| 7 | 05:15 | 2318.40000000 | +0.22% |
| 8 | 05:24 | 2318.40000000 | +0.22% |
| 9 | 05:35 | 2317.60000000 | +0.186% |
| 10 | 05:44 | 2317.60000000 | +0.186% |
| 11 | 05:53 | 2317.60000000 | +0.186% |
| 12 | 06:04 | 2317.60000000 | +0.186% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7241ms
Confidence avant OB :
72%
→
72%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.022
avg 0.084
± 0.038
OBI Top 10
0.022
Microstructure
Mid Price
2,315.5150
Micro Price
2,315.5153
Spread
0.0004%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2313.3 | 2342.9434 | 2239.1916 | 2.5 | 1746.1 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2313.3
- Stop Loss: 2342.9434
- Take Profit: 2239.1916
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2342.9434 - 2313.3 = 29.6434
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2313.3 - 2239.1916 = 74.1084
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 74.1084 / 29.6434 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 624.3019 | 100 | 0.2699 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 29.6434
Taille de position = 8 / 29.6434 = 0.27
Taille de position USD = 0.27 x 2313.3 = 624.59
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.27 avec un stoploss a 2342.9434
Avec un position size USD de 624.59$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.27 x 29.6434 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.27 x 74.1084 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.27
- Taille de position USD 624.59
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.2 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.28 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.28 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7162 % | 133.93 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2313.3 | 2342.9434 | 2239.1916 | 2.5 | 1746.1 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 2313.3
- Stop Loss: 2342.9434
- Take Profit: 2239.1916
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 2342.9434 - 2313.3 = 29.6434
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 2313.3 - 2239.1916 = 74.1084
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 74.1084 / 29.6434 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.281%
(29.6434)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.579% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.579% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.722% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.484% | 0.4R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +6.061% | 4.7R | -2.810% | 2.2R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1033 min
MAE in 468 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.