Short Trade on PUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 46696.24 PUMP at 0.00413$ per unit. Take profit: 0.003701 (10.37 %) & Stop Loss: 0.0043 (4.14 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:15:35
hyperliquid
PUMP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:15
→ 05:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.004129$
Qty 46696.241 PUMP
Size 192.8088$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.003701 (+10.37%)
TP $ 19.99$
SL 0.0043 (-4.14%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.79%
/ +3.46$
MAE -2.54%
MFE +8.89%
2.2R
expires
30 Oct 05:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233268)
#59 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7591
Quality Score
0.480
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#59 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.14 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#59 / 73
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.14 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.53×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.44×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.78×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
92.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:02
29/10 17:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7276
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
6.8%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.009
Δ 1h
▼-0.176
Δ 4h
▼-0.762
Δ 12h
▼-0.177
Δ 24h
▼-0.715
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 40.7% |
| 1h | 5.6% |
| 4h | 3.7% |
| 24h | 11.1% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 55.6% | -0.08% |
| 4h | 9.3% | -4.73% |
| 24h | 20.4% | -4.51% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
85.2%
Expansion
85.2%
Tail ↑
+0.90
Tail ↓
+0.34
Dispersion :
0.288
Universe :
54
(+3 vs prev)
noisy
· ≥ $2.0M
+3 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:01
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3418
Score SMA
0.3287
Rank
#34
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4923
Rank Norm SMA
0.4428
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3617 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 4.03% · r3d: 7.26% · ema21_slope: -0.6445% · dist_ema21: -2.857% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5170 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.50% · rs_3d: 5.74% · beta_24h: 2.667 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2022 | rvol_20: 0.69× · zscore_50: -0.598 · trend: -41.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4243 | ADX: 18.5 (weak) · Chop: 66.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.281% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.4799
Score SMA
0.5027
Rank
#59
/ 73
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7591
Rank Norm SMA
0.4049
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2966 | r1h: -7.996% · r4h: -11.445% · r1d: -10.61% · r3d: -3.35% · ema21_slope: 0.0953% · dist_ema21: -6.972% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1382 | rs_1h: -5.537% · rs_4h: -8.468% · rs_1d: -7.55% · rs_3d: -2.09% · beta_24h: 2.685 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 4.63× · zscore_50: 4.692 · trend: 141.87% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6654 | ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 22.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9915 | ATR%: 3.026% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5050
Score SMA
0.4166
Rank
#32
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6116
Rank Norm SMA
0.2309
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4399 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -2.517% · r1d: -2.90% · r3d: 4.52% · ema21_slope: 0.1201% · dist_ema21: 1.619% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4505 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.386% · rs_1d: -1.97% · rs_3d: 3.48% · beta_24h: 3.385 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6293 | rvol_20: 1.96× · zscore_50: 1.370 · trend: 28.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4850 | ADX: 13.7 (weak) · Chop: 54.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.6181 | ATR%: 4.146% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.141%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.446% | 0.6R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +3.076% | 0.7R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 143 |
| 24h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -4.069% | 1.0R | 2.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -4.311% | 1.0R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 184 min
MAE in 19 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 40
ML Pullback Score: 3.23
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.50 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.96 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.50 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.30 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
39%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.71 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.59 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
choppy 46% | late | — | — | 0.80 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.17% | -0.58 | 29/10 16:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444741
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.640 | compression | bull_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 24b -0.3ATR | — | — | 0.69 | 74% | ↓ -0.28 | value | +3.06 | — | #211880 | 0.50 | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.96 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#452302
|
↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.799 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early 4b 0.4ATR | near 0.4ATR | — | 1.96 | 65% | ↑ +0.26 | value | +1.89 | — | #215040 | 0.50 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.30 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:20
|
|
1h
anchor #452660
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.555 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
39%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late 4b -2.5ATR | — | — | 4.63 | 100% | ↑ +0.50 | above_value | +0.02 | — | #215259 | 0.71 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.59 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:11
|
|
15m
#452586
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.672 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
choppy 46% | late 18b -3.7ATR | — | — | 4.78 | 100% | ↓ -0.22 | value | +1.89 | — | #215040 | 0.80 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.17% | -0.58 |
29/10 16:45
upd 29/10 17:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 24b | — | 4.448×ATR | p71 | -0.289×ATR | p21 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 4b | — | 1.366×ATR | p0 | +0.379×ATR | p20 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 4.85×ATR | p82 | -2.458×ATR | p96 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 18b | — | 7.198×ATR | p97 | -3.705×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8484
- reason: down_bo width=2.13×ATR dur=79b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.00430032
- tp_price: 0.0037007
- atr:
- score: 0.84844
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:15:26.439602
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84844
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.119
- obi_top10 : 0.0014
- micro_price : 0.0041785
- spread_pct : 0.023935
- mid_price : 0.0041785
- bid_wall_price : 0.00416
- bid_wall_size : 108006898.6
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.00419
- ask_wall_size : 80741816.8
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.1012
- obi_top5_std : 0.0509
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7761
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.0044165
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.00416
- balance_zone_mid:
0.00428825
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793026800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.1252
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
79
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8484
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.00416
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7722
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2569
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
16
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00012069 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
79
inside_close_ratio
0.7722
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2569
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:15 | 0.00412900 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:24 | 0.00412900 | 0% |
| 3 | 17:35 | 0.00412900 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7761ms
Confidence avant OB :
85%
→
85%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.119
avg -0.101
± 0.051
OBI Top 10
0.001
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0042
Micro Price
0.0042
Spread
0.0239%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0042
Size
108,006,898.60
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0042
Size
80,741,816.80
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.004129 | 0.0043 | 0.003701 | 2.5 | 0.003667 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.004129
- Stop Loss: 0.0043
- Take Profit: 0.003701
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0043 - 0.004129 = 0.000171
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.004129 - 0.003701 = 0.000428
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000428 / 0.000171 = 2.5029
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 192.8088 | 100 | 46696.241 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.000171
Taille de position = 8 / 0.000171 = 46783.63
Taille de position USD = 46783.63 x 0.004129 = 193.17
Donc, tu peux acheter 46783.63 avec un stoploss a 0.0043
Avec un position size USD de 193.17$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 46783.63 x 0.000171 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 46783.63 x 0.000428 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position 46783.63
- Taille de position USD 193.17
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5029
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 10.37 % | 19.99 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.14 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.46 $ | 1.79 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.543 % | 61.4 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.004129 | 0.0043 | 0.003701 | 2.5 | 0.003667 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.004129
- Stop Loss: 0.0043
- Take Profit: 0.003701
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.0043 - 0.004129 = 0.000171
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.004129 - 0.003701 = 0.000428
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000428 / 0.000171 = 2.5029
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
[2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.003787
[stop_loss] => 0.0043
[rr_ratio] => 2
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 00:20:00+00
[result] => win
)
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.141%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +2.446% | 0.6R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +3.076% | 0.7R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 143 |
| 24h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -2.543% | 0.6R | 3.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -4.069% | 1.0R | 2.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.888% | 2.2R | -4.311% | 1.0R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 184 min
MAE in 19 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.