Short Trade on ASTER (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 436.61 ASTER at 0.692$ per unit. Take profit: 0.6462 (6.62 %) & Stop Loss: 0.7103 (2.64 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:16:10
hyperliquid
ASTER
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:16
→ 05:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.692$
Qty 436.6104 ASTER
Size 302.1257$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.6462 (+6.62%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.7103 (-2.64%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.21%
/ +3.64$
MAE -0.73%
MFE +4.81%
1.8R
expires
30 Oct 05:16
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233271)
#4 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6978
Quality Score
0.652
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#4 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.64 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#4 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-3
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.64 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.47×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.34×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.54×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
6.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:02
29/10 17:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7276
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
6.8%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.009
Δ 1h
▼-0.176
Δ 4h
▼-0.762
Δ 12h
▼-0.177
Δ 24h
▼-0.715
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 40.7% |
| 1h | 5.6% |
| 4h | 3.7% |
| 24h | 11.1% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 55.6% | -0.08% |
| 4h | 9.3% | -4.73% |
| 24h | 20.4% | -4.51% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
85.2%
Expansion
85.2%
Tail ↑
+0.90
Tail ↓
+0.34
Dispersion :
0.288
Universe :
54
(+3 vs prev)
noisy
· ≥ $2.0M
+3 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:01
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4087
Score SMA
0.4152
Rank
#16
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7692
Rank Norm SMA
0.7061
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4707 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.04% · r3d: 0.22% · ema21_slope: -0.0343% · dist_ema21: -0.724% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4850 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.57% · rs_3d: -1.29% · beta_24h: 0.968 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1252 | rvol_20: 0.28× · zscore_50: -1.123 · trend: -66.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3299 | ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 79.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.7169 | ATR%: 3.849% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.6518
Score SMA
0.5339
Rank
#4
/ 73
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6978
Rank Norm SMA
0.6165
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3406 | r1h: -4.165% · r4h: -4.719% · r1d: -3.11% · r3d: -3.28% · ema21_slope: 0.0398% · dist_ema21: -3.032% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3752 | rs_1h: -1.706% · rs_4h: -1.742% · rs_1d: -0.05% · rs_3d: -2.02% · beta_24h: 1.315 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 6.86× · zscore_50: 5.686 · trend: 262.69% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7062 | ADX: 24.7 (weak) · Chop: 10.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.193% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.6778
Score SMA
0.5210
Rank
#5
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.9233
Rank Norm SMA
0.6767
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5175 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.835% · r1d: 0.98% · r3d: 0.46% · ema21_slope: 0.0079% · dist_ema21: 0.920% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5456 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.297% · rs_1d: 1.91% · rs_3d: -0.59% · beta_24h: 0.904 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9770 | rvol_20: 3.13× · zscore_50: 2.655 · trend: 131.56% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6051 | ADX: 15.3 (weak) · Chop: 41.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.475% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.645%
(0.0183)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.572% | 0.2R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.026% | 0.4R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 1.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -2.594% | 1.0R | 1.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -2.594% | 1.0R | 1.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 183 min
MAE in 18 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 3.85
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early | — | — | 0.59 | bull_high | +4.55% | +0.16 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | near 0.3ATR | near -0.9ATR | 0.59 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.00 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.69 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.03 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.71 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.17% | -0.01 | 29/10 16:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444745
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.651 | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early 28b 0.0ATR | — | — | 0.59 | 28% | ↓ -0.36 | above_value | -0.30 | — | #211882 | 0.59 | bull_high | +4.55% | +0.16 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#452311
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.673 | volatile_reversal | bull_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early 1b 0.6ATR | near 0.3ATR | near -0.9ATR | 3.13 | 91% | ↑ +0.78 | above_value | +0.71 | — | #215043 | 0.59 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.00 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:21
|
|
1h
anchor #452663
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.756 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late 5b -2.5ATR | near -0.5ATR | — | 6.86 | 100% | ↑ +0.59 | above_value | -1.63 | — | #215262 | 0.69 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.03 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:12
|
|
15m
#452589
|
↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | 0.505 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 3b -2.5ATR | — | — | 4.43 | 99% | ↔ +0.15 | above_value | +0.71 | — | #215043 | 0.71 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.17% | -0.01 |
29/10 16:45
upd 29/10 17:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 28b | — | 2.718×ATR | p4 | -0.022×ATR | p2 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 1.686×ATR | p3 | +0.632×ATR | p50 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 5.818×ATR | p95 | -2.486×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 3b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -2.54×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7234
- reason: down_bo width=1.85×ATR dur=48b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.71030297
- tp_price: 0.64617258
- atr:
- score: 0.72336985028669
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:16:02.011240
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.72336985028669
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0193
- obi_top10 : 0.0454
- micro_price : 0.69377287
- spread_pct : 0.043253
- mid_price : 0.69375
- bid_wall_price : 0.68
- bid_wall_size : 414982.8
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.706
- ask_wall_size : 425527.8
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0003
- obi_top5_std : 0.0144
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6991
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.71714
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.70181
- balance_zone_mid:
0.709475
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793138400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.8515
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
48
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7234
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.70181
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7083
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1872
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
15
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0082797 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
48
inside_close_ratio
0.7083
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1872
Signaux confirmants (11)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:16 | 0.69198000 | -0.003% |
| 2 | 17:24 | 0.69198000 | -0.003% |
| 3 | 17:35 | 0.69198000 | -0.003% |
| 4 | 17:45 | 0.69595000 | +0.571% |
| 5 | 17:55 | 0.69595000 | +0.571% |
| 6 | 18:10 | 0.69595000 | +0.571% |
| 7 | 18:20 | 0.69091000 | -0.158% |
| 8 | 18:29 | 0.69091000 | -0.158% |
| 9 | 18:40 | 0.69343000 | +0.207% |
| 10 | 18:49 | 0.69343000 | +0.207% |
| 11 | 18:58 | 0.69343000 | +0.207% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6991ms
Confidence avant OB :
72%
→
72%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.019
avg 0.000
± 0.014
OBI Top 10
0.045
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.6938
Micro Price
0.6938
Spread
0.0433%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.6800
Size
414,982.80
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.7060
Size
425,527.80
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.692 | 0.7103 | 0.6462 | 2.5 | 0.6488 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.692
- Stop Loss: 0.7103
- Take Profit: 0.6462
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7103 - 0.692 = 0.0183
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.692 - 0.6462 = 0.0458
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0458 / 0.0183 = 2.5027
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 302.1257 | 100 | 436.6104 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0183
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0183 = 437.16
Taille de position USD = 437.16 x 0.692 = 302.51
Donc, tu peux acheter 437.16 avec un stoploss a 0.7103
Avec un position size USD de 302.51$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 437.16 x 0.0183 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 437.16 x 0.0458 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position 437.16
- Taille de position USD 302.51
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5027
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.62 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.64 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.64 $ | 1.21 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7327 % | 27.71 % | 25 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.692 | 0.7103 | 0.6462 | 2.5 | 0.6488 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.692
- Stop Loss: 0.7103
- Take Profit: 0.6462
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.7103 - 0.692 = 0.0183
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.692 - 0.6462 = 0.0458
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0458 / 0.0183 = 2.5027
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.645%
(0.0183)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.572% | 0.2R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.026% | 0.4R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 1.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -0.733% | 0.3R | 6.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -2.594% | 1.0R | 1.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.811% | 1.8R | -2.594% | 1.0R | 1.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 183 min
MAE in 18 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.