Short Trade on LTC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3.87 LTC at 55.929$ per unit. Take profit: 50.7545 (9.25 %) & Stop Loss: 57.9988 (3.7 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 17:38:50
hyperliquid
LTC
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 17:38
→ 05:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 55.929$
Qty 3.8651 LTC
Size 216.1712$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 50.7545 (+9.25%)
TP $ 20$
SL 57.9988 (-3.7%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.91%
/ +1.97$
MAE -0.95%
MFE +5.59%
1.5R
expires
30 Oct 05:38
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233219)
#21 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
score du 29/10/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2819
Quality Score
0.546
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#21 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#21 / 73
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.70 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 1.10×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.95×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
4.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 17:30
29/10 17:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 27/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/10 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 16:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7278
Voir snapshot →
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
7.2%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.001
Δ 1h
→-0.021
Δ 4h
▼-0.783
Δ 12h
▼-0.200
Δ 24h
▼-0.841
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 91.7% |
| 1h | 61.7% |
| 4h | 5.0% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 90.0% | +0.38% |
| 4h | 8.3% | -6.55% |
| 24h | 13.3% | -8.33% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
1.7%
Down ≥1σ
88.3%
Expansion
90.0%
Tail ↑
+1.15
Tail ↓
+0.76
Dispersion :
0.261
Universe :
60
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 17:31
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4193
Score SMA
0.3546
Rank
#15
/ 66
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7846
Rank Norm SMA
0.5592
Calculé le
28/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3704 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 3.61% · r3d: 4.44% · ema21_slope: -0.4209% · dist_ema21: -1.193% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5100 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 3.08% · rs_3d: 2.93% · beta_24h: 1.590 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2539 | rvol_20: 1.05× · zscore_50: -0.517 · trend: -61.36% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5410 | ADX: 31.8 (trend) · Chop: 65.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4873 | ATR%: 4.538% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.5460
Score SMA
0.5311
Rank
#21
/ 73
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2819
Rank Norm SMA
0.5820
Calculé le
29/10/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3002 | r1h: -5.793% · r4h: -6.509% · r1d: -7.25% · r3d: -3.17% · ema21_slope: -0.0343% · dist_ema21: -5.265% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2332 | rs_1h: -3.334% · rs_4h: -3.531% · rs_1d: -4.19% · rs_3d: -1.91% · beta_24h: 1.707 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 6.58× · zscore_50: 4.663 · trend: 149.24% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6509 | ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 25.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.567% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5099
Score SMA
0.4964
Rank
#30
/ 74
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4140
Rank Norm SMA
0.5770
Calculé le
29/10/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4715 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.068% · r1d: -2.53% · r3d: 2.88% · ema21_slope: 0.1165% · dist_ema21: 0.553% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4942 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.064% · rs_1d: -1.60% · rs_3d: 1.84% · beta_24h: 1.091 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2637 | rvol_20: 0.82× · zscore_50: -0.450 · trend: -17.85% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6146 | ADX: 20.8 (weak) · Chop: 45.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.893% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.701%
(2.0698)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.992% | 0.5R | -0.009% | 0.0R | 223.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.992% | 0.5R | -0.009% | 0.0R | 223.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.009% | 0.0R | 628.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.914% | 0.3R | 6.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 288 |
| 36h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 161 min
MAE in 531 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 6.6
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | — | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.63 | 27/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.59 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.17 | 29/10 12:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 50% | late | — | — | 0.74 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.51 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | 0.73 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.24 | 29/10 17:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#444596
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.692 | compression | bull_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 32b -0.6ATR | — | — | 0.66 | 45% | ↓ -0.35 | above_value | +4.25 | — | #211838 | — | bull_high | +4.55% | -0.63 |
27/10 20:00
upd 28/10 20:17
|
|
4h
#452164
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.636 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early 5b 0.3ATR | — | — | 0.82 | 23% | ↑ +0.49 | value | +2.60 | — | #214989 | 0.59 | bear_high | -0.86% | +0.17 |
29/10 12:00
upd 29/10 16:13
|
|
1h
anchor #452611
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.461 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 50% | late 4b -3.8ATR | — | — | 6.58 | 99% | ↔ -0.02 | below_value | -2.02 | inside | #215211 | 0.74 | bear_medium_confirmed | -2.22% | -0.51 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 17:09
|
|
15m
#452761
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.373 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late 5b -2.2ATR | — | — | 0.95 | 86% | ↑ +0.82 | below_value | -2.02 | — | #215211 | 0.73 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.49% | -0.24 |
29/10 17:15
upd 29/10 17:30
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 32b | — | 6.348×ATR | p71 | -0.626×ATR | p38 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 5b | — | 1.618×ATR | p0 | +0.278×ATR | p14 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 4.974×ATR | p88 | -3.807×ATR | p100 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -2.215×ATR | p88 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7904
- reason: down_bo width=2.21×ATR dur=33b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 57.9988035
- tp_price: 50.75449125
- atr:
- score: 0.79039191327185
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T09:38:42.001604
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.79039191327185
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0705
- obi_top10 : 0.116
- micro_price : 55.89758621
- spread_pct : 0.017892
- mid_price : 55.895
- bid_wall_price : 55.8
- bid_wall_size : 10052.52
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 56.7
- ask_wall_size : 9383.2
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0704
- obi_top5_std : 0.0003
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7064
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
58.9
- balance_zone_bottom:
56.918
- balance_zone_mid:
57.909
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793192400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793307600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.207
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
33
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7904
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
56.918
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7273
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1013
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.89803498 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
33
inside_close_ratio
0.7273
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1013
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:38 | 55.92900000 | 0% |
| 2 | 17:49 | 55.92900000 | 0% |
| 3 | 17:59 | 55.92900000 | 0% |
| 4 | 18:43 | 55.65500000 | -0.49% |
| 5 | 18:52 | 55.65500000 | -0.49% |
| 6 | 19:02 | 55.65500000 | -0.49% |
| 7 | 23:38 | 55.76100000 | -0.3% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7064ms
Confidence avant OB :
79%
→
79%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.071
avg 0.070
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.116
Microstructure
Mid Price
55.8950
Micro Price
55.8976
Spread
0.0179%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
55.8000
Size
10,052.52
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
56.7000
Size
9,383.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.929 | 57.9988 | 50.7545 | 2.5 | 50.686 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 55.929
- Stop Loss: 57.9988
- Take Profit: 50.7545
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 57.9988 - 55.929 = 2.0698
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 55.929 - 50.7545 = 5.1745
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.1745 / 2.0698 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216.1712 | 100 | 3.8651 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 2.0698
Taille de position = 8 / 2.0698 = 3.87
Taille de position USD = 3.87 x 55.929 = 216.45
Donc, tu peux acheter 3.87 avec un stoploss a 57.9988
Avec un position size USD de 216.45$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3.87 x 2.0698 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3.87 x 5.1745 = 20.03
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.03$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3.87
- Taille de position USD 216.45
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.03
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 9.25 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.7 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 1.97 $ | 0.91 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.953 % | 25.75 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.929 | 57.9988 | 50.7545 | 2.5 | 50.686 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 55.929
- Stop Loss: 57.9988
- Take Profit: 50.7545
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 57.9988 - 55.929 = 2.0698
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 55.929 - 50.7545 = 5.1745
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.1745 / 2.0698 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.701%
(2.0698)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.992% | 0.5R | -0.009% | 0.0R | 223.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.992% | 0.5R | -0.009% | 0.0R | 223.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.009% | 0.0R | 628.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.914% | 0.3R | 6.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 288 |
| 36h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +5.595% | 1.5R | -0.953% | 0.3R | 5.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 161 min
MAE in 531 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.