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Short Trade on NIL

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29 Oct 2026 at 21:15:11 hyperliquid

Short Trade on NIL (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 1515.74 NIL at 0.0688$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06712 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07412 (7.67 %)

NIL SHORT momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 29 Oct 2026 21:15 → 21:25 · 9 minutes

Position

Entry 0.06884$

Qty 1515.7429 NIL

Size 104.3407$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)

Risk Setup

TP 0.06712 (+2.5%)

TP $ 2.61$

SL 0.07412 (-7.67%)

SL $ 8$

RR 0.33

Status win PnL +2.50% / +2.61$ MAE -7.75% MFE +8.02% 1.1R expires 30 Oct 03:15

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 233789)
#86 / 90
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 21:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.0323

Quality Score
0.338
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#86 / 90
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.67 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#86 / 90
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
7.67 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h near 0.22×ATR
1d near -1.76×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score
+1
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc_leading
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
stable
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership

V6 Shadow Analysis

Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.

BTC Regime v2 Score
+1
LOW
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bearish
OK
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-3.77
OK
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 21:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

28/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

29/10 20:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7292
Voir snapshot →
range ranging range_bound
Strategic range

0.25

range

0

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical bear

0.55

transition

+1

Micro bear

0.90

transition

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.67
Transition risk : 0.33
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 11.3%
Macro alt_capitulation
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state stable
Δ 15m
→-0.002
Δ 1h
→+0.043
Δ 4h
→+0.045
Δ 12h
▼-0.568
Δ 24h
▼-0.269

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 81.8%
1h 6.5%
4h 5.2%
24h 5.2%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 85.7% +0.29%
4h 22.1% -3.77%
24h 14.3% -11.87%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
3.9%
Down ≥1σ
42.9%
Expansion
46.8%
Tail ↑
+0.53
Tail ↓
+0.59
Dispersion : 0.303
Universe : 77 (+1 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+1 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.80
Snapshot évalué : 29/10 21:01 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3491
Score SMA
0.4368
Rank
#26 / 86
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7059
Rank Norm SMA
0.7224
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4014 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -8.46% · r3d: -20.50% · ema21_slope: -0.0256% · dist_ema21: -13.890%
Force Relative 25% 0.2892 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.32% · rs_3d: -17.80% · beta_24h: 1.455
Volume 20% 0.2020 rvol_20: 0.44× · zscore_50: -0.499 · trend: -23.56%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7735 ADX: 33.8 (trend) · Chop: 39.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 19.191% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.3381
Score SMA
0.5180
Rank
#86 / 90
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0323
Rank Norm SMA
0.5192
Calculé le
29/10/2026 21:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.0311 r1h: -2.790% · r4h: -4.163% · r1d: -10.08% · r3d: -23.16% · ema21_slope: -0.2556% · dist_ema21: -5.486%
Force Relative 25% 0.1869 rs_1h: -1.857% · rs_4h: -2.121% · rs_1d: -5.32% · rs_3d: -19.45% · beta_24h: 1.262
Volume 20% 0.7329 rvol_20: 2.44× · zscore_50: 1.920 · trend: 20.59%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6648 ADX: 19.8 (weak) · Chop: 35.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.9357 ATR%: 3.193% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2235
Score SMA
0.4638
Rank
#90 / 90
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0000
Rank Norm SMA
0.4801
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.0212 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -3.967% · r1d: -8.46% · r3d: -20.50% · ema21_slope: -0.8726% · dist_ema21: -11.201%
Force Relative 25% 0.2869 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.416% · rs_1d: -4.32% · rs_3d: -17.80% · beta_24h: 1.367
Volume 20% 0.2520 rvol_20: 0.76× · zscore_50: -0.096 · trend: -37.94%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6337 ADX: 25.1 (trend) · Chop: 47.5 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 7.701% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.670% (0.0053)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +8.022% 1.1R -0.362% 0.1R 22.2× 12
2h +8.022% 1.1R -0.362% 0.1R 22.2× 24
4h +8.022% 1.1R -5.715% 0.8R 1.4× 48
6h ★ +8.022% 1.1R -7.751% 1.0R 1.0× 72
8h +8.022% 1.1R -12.093% 1.6R 0.7× 96
12h +8.022% 1.1R -15.234% 2.0R 0.5× 144
24h +8.022% 1.1R -18.911% 2.5R 0.4× 288
48h +8.022% 1.1R -18.911% 2.5R 0.4× 576
72h +8.022% 1.1R -18.911% 2.5R 0.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 44 min MAE in 854 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 4.68
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate fading expansion_after_compression bull_high
53%
noisy_chop 42% mid near -1.8ATR — 0.29 range_high +0.21% -0.76 28/10 20:00
4h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong grind expansion bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 40% late near 0.2ATR — 0.19 bear_high_confirmed -4.29% -0.95 29/10 16:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate explosive expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
55%
noisy_chop 43% mid — — 0.32 bear_high_confirmed -4.01% -0.34 29/10 20:00
15m ↓ down range range strong explosive expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
62%
noisy_chop 45% early — near 0.4ATR 0.42 bear_medium_confirmed -3.46% -0.23 29/10 20:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#454190
 ↔ neutral range range moderate fading 0.525 expansion_after_compression bull_high
53%
noisy_chop 42% mid 2b -0.9ATR near -1.8ATR — 0.44 72% ↓ -0.23 below_value -5.79 — #215768 0.29 range_high +0.21% -0.76
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 20:30
4h
#454158
 ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition strong grind 0.703 expansion bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 40% late 16b -2.1ATR near 0.2ATR — 0.76 53% ↓ -0.22 below_value -5.79 — #215768 0.19 bear_high_confirmed -4.29% -0.95
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 20:28
1h anchor
#454592
 ↓ down range range moderate explosive 0.400 expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
55%
noisy_chop 43% mid 8b -1.8ATR — — 2.44 86% ↑ +0.50 below_value -6.26 — #216037 0.32 bear_high_confirmed -4.01% -0.34
29/10 20:00
upd 29/10 21:13
15m
#454500
 ↓ down range range strong explosive 0.320 expansion_after_compression bear_high_confirmed
62%
noisy_chop 45% early 1b -1.4ATR — near 0.4ATR 0.86 81% ↔ -0.10 below_value -5.79 — #215768 0.42 bear_medium_confirmed -3.46% -0.23
29/10 20:45
upd 29/10 21:04
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 2b — 4.491×ATR p60 -0.891×ATR p62
4h ↓ down late 16b — 11.191×ATR p100 -2.08×ATR p87
1h ↓ down mid 8b — 3.545×ATR p71 -1.843×ATR p77
15m ↑ up early 1b — 1.948×ATR p17 -1.395×ATR p58

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.07411594
  2. tp_price: 0.06711705
  3. atr: 0.00211118
  4. expires_at: 2026-10-30T07:15:11+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 88
  2. total: 90
  3. score: 0.0291
  4. delta_2h: -0.1403
  5. extension_atr: -2.06
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0323
  9. confidence: 0.978

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.06884 0.07412 0.06712 0.33 0.05737
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.06884
  • Stop Loss: 0.07412
  • Take Profit: 0.06712

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07412 - 0.06884 = 0.00528

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.06884 - 0.06712 = 0.00172

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00172 / 0.00528 = 0.3258

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
104.3407 100 1515.7429 1.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00528

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00528 = 1515.15

Taille de position USD = 1515.15 x 0.06884 = 104.3

Donc, tu peux acheter 1515.15 avec un stoploss a 0.07412

Avec un position size USD de 104.3$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1515.15 x 0.00528 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1515.15 x 0.00172 = 2.61

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 2.61$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1515.15
  • Taille de position USD 104.3
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 2.61
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 0.3258

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 2.61 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
7.67 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
2.61 $ 2.50
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.3617 % 4.72 % 1
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.06884 0.07412 0.06712 0.33 0.05737
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.06884
  • Stop Loss: 0.07412
  • Take Profit: 0.06712

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07412 - 0.06884 = 0.00528

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.06884 - 0.06712 = 0.00172

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00172 / 0.00528 = 0.3258

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
    [2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.05828
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 2
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [2.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.05564
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 2.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.053
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 3
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [3.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.05036
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 3.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [4] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.04772
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 4
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [4.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.04508
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 4.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.04244
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [5.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.0398
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 5.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [6] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.03716
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 6
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [6.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.03452
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 6.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [7] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.03188
            [stop_loss] => 0.07412
            [rr_ratio] => 7
            [closed_at] => 2026-10-30 07:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 6h) Initial Risk: -7.670% (0.0053)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +8.022% 1.1R -0.362% 0.1R 22.2× 12
2h +8.022% 1.1R -0.362% 0.1R 22.2× 24
4h +8.022% 1.1R -5.715% 0.8R 1.4× 48
6h ★ +8.022% 1.1R -7.751% 1.0R 1.0× 72
8h +8.022% 1.1R -12.093% 1.6R 0.7× 96
12h +8.022% 1.1R -15.234% 2.0R 0.5× 144
24h +8.022% 1.1R -18.911% 2.5R 0.4× 288
48h +8.022% 1.1R -18.911% 2.5R 0.4× 576
72h +8.022% 1.1R -18.911% 2.5R 0.4× 864
⏱ MFE in 44 min MAE in 854 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.