Short Trade on BCH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.69 BCH at 273.36$ per unit. Take profit: 244.1698 (10.68 %) & Stop Loss: 285.0361 (4.27 %)
29 Oct 2026 at 21:42:07
hyperliquid
BCH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Oct 2026 21:42
→ 00:10
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 273.36$
Qty 0.6852 BCH
Size 187.296$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 244.1698 (+10.68%)
TP $ 20$
SL 285.0361 (-4.27%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-4.27%
/ -8$
MAE -5.25%
MFE +1.33%
0.3R
expires
30 Oct 09:41
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 233740)
#12 / 90
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 21:00
score du 29/10/2026 21:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7092
Quality Score
0.644
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#12 / 90
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.27 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#12 / 90
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.27 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.13×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.05×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.50×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
5.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 21:30
29/10 21:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) 28/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 29/10 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/10 20:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7294
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Operational |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
transition
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.67
Transition risk :
0.33
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
13.9%
Macro
alt_capitulation
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.053
Δ 4h
▲+0.066
Δ 12h
▼-0.692
Δ 24h
→-0.035
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 5.2% |
| 1h | 15.6% |
| 4h | 6.5% |
| 24h | 9.1% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 6.5% | -0.45% |
| 4h | 28.6% | -3.46% |
| 24h | 16.9% | -8.34% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
26.0%
Expansion
26.0%
Tail ↑
+0.59
Tail ↓
+0.33
Dispersion :
0.300
Universe :
77
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.80
Snapshot évalué :
29/10 21:31
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.4026
Score SMA
0.4081
Rank
#18
/ 86
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8000
Rank Norm SMA
0.7248
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4172 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.33% · r3d: -2.70% · ema21_slope: -0.0337% · dist_ema21: -3.375% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4905 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.18% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.794 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4319 | rvol_20: 1.69× · zscore_50: -0.051 · trend: -15.99% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4368 | ADX: 17.3 (weak) · Chop: 63.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0291 | ATR%: 5.913% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.6437
Score SMA
0.5610
Rank
#12
/ 90
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7092
Rank Norm SMA
0.6798
Calculé le
29/10/2026 21:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3290 | r1h: -0.936% · r4h: -0.019% · r1d: -5.81% · r3d: -3.89% · ema21_slope: -0.0790% · dist_ema21: -3.473% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5273 | rs_1h: -0.003% · rs_4h: 2.024% · rs_1d: -1.05% · rs_3d: -0.19% · beta_24h: 1.767 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9900 | rvol_20: 3.66× · zscore_50: 2.850 · trend: 106.45% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7677 | ADX: 32.1 (trend) · Chop: 23.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.037% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6186
Score SMA
0.5500
Rank
#12
/ 90
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8560
Rank Norm SMA
0.7834
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3554 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.581% · r1d: -5.33% · r3d: -2.70% · ema21_slope: 0.0635% · dist_ema21: -3.765% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4872 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.029% · rs_1d: -1.18% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.273 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9577 | rvol_20: 2.90× · zscore_50: 3.802 · trend: 80.79% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6574 | ADX: 18.9 (weak) · Chop: 36.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.838% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.271%
(11.6761)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -2.246% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -3.307% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -4.935% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -4.935% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.332% | 0.3R | -5.246% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 17 min
MAE in 1362 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.55
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | range_high |
41%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.66 | range_high | +0.21% | +0.44 | 28/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.55 | bear_high_confirmed | -4.29% | +0.14 | 29/10 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.74 | bear_high_confirmed | -4.01% | +0.06 | 29/10 20:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
66%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | — | 0.70 | bear_medium | -3.71% | +0.07 | 29/10 21:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#453997
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.652 | normal | range_high |
41%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early 14b -0.7ATR | near 0.5ATR | — | 1.69 | 88% | ↔ -0.06 | below_value | -0.96 | — | #215723 | 0.66 | range_high | +0.21% | +0.44 |
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 20:20
|
|
4h
#453965
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.510 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid 1b -1.3ATR | — | — | 2.90 | 97% | ↑ +0.75 | below_value | -0.96 | — | #215723 | 0.55 | bear_high_confirmed | -4.29% | +0.14 |
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 20:18
|
|
1h
anchor #454543
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.553 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 3b -1.6ATR | near 0.1ATR | — | 3.66 | 100% | ↑ +0.67 | below_value | -1.32 | — | #215988 | 0.74 | bear_high_confirmed | -4.01% | +0.06 |
29/10 20:00
upd 29/10 21:11
|
|
15m
#454728
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | explosive | 0.319 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
66%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early 3b -1.0ATR | — | — | 0.67 | 82% | ↓ -0.33 | below_value | -1.32 | — | #215988 | 0.70 | bear_medium | -3.71% | +0.07 |
29/10 21:15
upd 29/10 21:31
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 14b | — | 1.066×ATR | p0 | -0.662×ATR | p39 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 1b | — | 2.568×ATR | p17 | -1.305×ATR | p68 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 1.64×ATR | p8 | -1.628×ATR | p76 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 2.561×ATR | p47 | -0.997×ATR | p44 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8113
- reason: down_bo width=2.98×ATR dur=30b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 285.03606218
- tp_price: 244.16984455
- atr:
- score: 0.81130716532225
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T13:41:59.804801
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81130716532225
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0575
- obi_top10 : -0.0066
- micro_price : 272.92743902
- spread_pct : 0.018322
- mid_price : 272.925
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 277
- ask_wall_size : 2052.31
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0483
- obi_top5_std : 0.0127
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7121
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
292.625
- balance_zone_bottom:
276.355
- balance_zone_mid:
284.49
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793217600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793322000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9795
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
30
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8113
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793314800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
276.355
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
2
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.5485
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
3
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 5.4606218 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
30
inside_close_ratio
0.8667
bars_since_breakout
2
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5485
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:42 | 273.36000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 21:50 | 273.36000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 21:59 | 273.36000000 | 0% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7121ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.058
avg 0.048
± 0.013
OBI Top 10
-0.007
Microstructure
Mid Price
272.9250
Micro Price
272.9274
Spread
0.0183%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
277.0000
Size
2,052.31
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 273.36 | 285.0361 | 244.1698 | 2.5 | 241.1 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 273.36
- Stop Loss: 285.0361
- Take Profit: 244.1698
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 285.0361 - 273.36 = 11.6761
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 273.36 - 244.1698 = 29.1902
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 29.1902 / 11.6761 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 187.296 | 100 | 0.6852 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 11.6761
Taille de position = 8 / 11.6761 = 0.69
Taille de position USD = 0.69 x 273.36 = 188.62
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.69 avec un stoploss a 285.0361
Avec un position size USD de 188.62$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.69 x 11.6761 = 8.06
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.06$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.69 x 29.1902 = 20.14
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.14$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.69
- Taille de position USD 188.62
- Perte potentielle 8.06
- Gain potentiel 20.14
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 10.68 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.27 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -4.27 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.9349 % | 115.54 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 273.36 | 285.0361 | 244.1698 | 2.5 | 241.1 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 273.36
- Stop Loss: 285.0361
- Take Profit: 244.1698
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 285.0361 - 273.36 = 11.6761
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 273.36 - 244.1698 = 29.1902
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 29.1902 / 11.6761 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 244.1698
[entry_price] => 273.36
[stop_loss] => 286.20371
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-10-30 04:10:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.271%
(11.6761)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -2.246% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -3.307% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -4.935% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -4.935% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.332% | 0.3R | -5.246% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 288 |
| 36h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 432 |
| 48h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 576 |
| 72h | +1.332% | 0.3R | -8.926% | 2.1R | 0.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 17 min
MAE in 1362 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.