29 Oct 2026 at 23:52:06 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XLM (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1318.37 XLM at 0.164$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1492 (9.25 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1705 (3.71 %)

XLM SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Oct 2026 23:52 → 11:20 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.1644$

Qty 1318.3677 XLM

Size 216.7396$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0.1492 (+9.25%)

TP $ 20.04$

SL 0.1705 (-3.71%)

SL $ 8.04$

RR 2.49

Status loss PnL -3.71% / -8.04$ MAE -4.11% MFE +0.23% 0.1R expires 30 Oct 11:51

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 233961)
#21 / 93
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/10/2026 23:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.6662

Quality Score
0.540
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#21 / 93
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#21 / 93
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near 0.22×ATR
4h clear —
1d near 0.18×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up mid OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
3.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/10 23:46
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

28/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

29/10 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

29/10 22:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7303
Voir snapshot →
range ranging range_bound
Strategic range

0.25

range

0

Operational range

0.25

range

0

Tactical bear

0.90

transition

+1

Micro bear

0.90

transition

MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.67
Transition risk : 0.33
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 42.9%
Macro mixed_dispersion
Local 4h mixed Leadership balanced
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state recovering
Δ 15m
▲+0.091
Δ 1h
▲+0.134
Δ 4h
▲+0.371
Δ 12h
▼-0.485
Δ 24h
▲+0.357

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 77.9%
1h 94.8%
4h 55.8%
24h 14.3%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 79.2% +0.21%
4h 59.7% +0.48%
24h 23.4% -4.88%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.6%
Down ≥1σ
5.2%
Expansion
7.8%
Tail ↑
+0.48
Tail ↓
+0.69
Dispersion : 0.323
Universe : 77 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.80
Snapshot évalué : 29/10 23:46 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2899
Score SMA
0.3206
Rank
#43 / 86
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5059
Rank Norm SMA
0.3310
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.1188 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -5.95% · r3d: -4.26% · ema21_slope: -0.6832% · dist_ema21: -9.808%
Force Relative 25% 0.3590 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.80% · rs_3d: -1.56% · beta_24h: 1.623
Volume 20% 0.3591 rvol_20: 1.43× · zscore_50: -0.234 · trend: -31.07%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5211 ADX: 25.4 (trend) · Chop: 61.8 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.1455 ATR%: 5.563% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.5399
Score SMA
0.5339
Rank
#21 / 93
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6662
Rank Norm SMA
0.5819
Calculé le
29/10/2026 23:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3664 r1h: 0.862% · r4h: -0.799% · r1d: -3.17% · r3d: -3.39% · ema21_slope: -0.1734% · dist_ema21: -2.307%
Force Relative 25% 0.5254 rs_1h: 0.071% · rs_4h: 1.235% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: -0.39% · beta_24h: 1.199
Volume 20% 0.4185 rvol_20: 0.63× · zscore_50: -0.030 · trend: 109.17%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7659 ADX: 31.9 (trend) · Chop: 20.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.595% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.5809
Score SMA
0.5059
Rank
#19 / 90
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5975
Rank Norm SMA
0.5813
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2418 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.163% · r1d: -5.95% · r3d: -4.26% · ema21_slope: -0.0221% · dist_ema21: -4.406%
Force Relative 25% 0.4309 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.611% · rs_1d: -1.80% · rs_3d: -1.56% · beta_24h: 1.230
Volume 20% 1.0000 rvol_20: 6.51× · zscore_50: 5.001 · trend: 142.26%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6710 ADX: 20.5 (weak) · Chop: 32.9 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 2.086% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.711% (0.0061)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.225% 0.1R -1.174% 0.3R 0.2× 12
2h +0.225% 0.1R -2.251% 0.6R 0.1× 24
4h +0.225% 0.1R -2.251% 0.6R 0.1× 48
8h +0.225% 0.1R -2.251% 0.6R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.225% 0.1R -4.106% 1.1R 0.1× 144
24h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 288
36h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 432
48h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 576
72h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 12 min MAE in 727 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 6 days ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.14
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
51%
noisy_chop 45% late near 0.2ATR — 0.59 range_high +0.21% -0.85 28/10 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate balanced volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
46%
noisy_chop 42% late — — 0.74 bear_high_confirmed -4.29% -0.14 29/10 16:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
53%
noisy_chop 43% mid near 0.2ATR — 0.82 bear_high_confirmed -3.63% +0.01 29/10 22:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind compression bear_high
61%
noisy_chop 38% mid — near -0.7ATR 0.86 bear_medium -1.72% +0.16 29/10 23:30
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#454153
↓ down range range moderate grind 0.399 compression bear_high
51%
noisy_chop 45% late 30b -2.4ATR near 0.2ATR — 1.43 70% ↔ -0.07 below_value -3.29 — #215759 0.59 range_high +0.21% -0.85
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 20:28
4h
#454118
↓ down range range moderate balanced 0.552 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
46%
noisy_chop 42% late 1b -2.2ATR — — 6.51 95% ↑ +0.33 below_value -3.29 inside #215759 0.74 bear_high_confirmed -4.29% -0.14
29/10 16:00
upd 29/10 20:26
1h anchor
#455521
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong grind 0.473 volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
53%
noisy_chop 43% mid 2b -1.3ATR near 0.2ATR — 0.63 85% ↑ +0.92 below_value -2.71 — #216397 0.82 bear_high_confirmed -3.63% +0.01
29/10 22:00
upd 29/10 23:13
15m
#455807
↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.465 compression bear_high
61%
noisy_chop 38% mid 6b 1.1ATR — near -0.7ATR 0.17 67% ↔ -0.08 below_value -2.71 — #216397 0.86 bear_medium -1.72% +0.16
29/10 23:30
upd 29/10 23:48
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 30b — 8.34×ATR p96 -2.387×ATR p97
4h ↓ down late 1b — 3.475×ATR p36 -2.179×ATR p90
1h ↑ up mid 2b — 1.87×ATR p21 -1.257×ATR p63
15m ↑ up mid 6b — 3.667×ATR p71 +1.071×ATR p45

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.7971
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.43×ATR dur=44b phase=extending
  4. stop_price: 0.17046811
  5. tp_price: 0.14922973
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.79708605742285
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-10-30T15:51:58.171120
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.79708605742285
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.0805
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0736
  15. micro_price : 0.16458703
  16. spread_pct : 0.006076
  17. mid_price : 0.164585
  18. bid_wall_price : 0.164
  19. bid_wall_size : 4999375
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price :
  22. ask_wall_size :
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.0753
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.017
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7024
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.173315
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.16711
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.1702125
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793174400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793329200
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.4275
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    44
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.7971
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793304000
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.16711
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.7727
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    7
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    1.0602
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    5
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    5
  59. regime : bear_high_confirmed
  60. atr_entry : 0.00255608
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
44
inside_close_ratio
0.7727
bars_since_breakout
7
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0602

Signaux confirmants (18)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 23:52 0.16440000 0%
2 00:02 0.16440000 0%
3 00:15 0.16413000 -0.164%
4 00:25 0.16413000 -0.164%
5 00:37 0.16413000 -0.164%
6 00:46 0.16538000 +0.596%
7 00:55 0.16538000 +0.596%
8 01:06 0.16538000 +0.596%
9 04:13 0.16546000 +0.645%
10 04:24 0.16546000 +0.645%
11 04:36 0.16546000 +0.645%
12 04:45 0.16577000 +0.833%
13 04:54 0.16577000 +0.833%
14 05:05 0.16577000 +0.833%
15 05:16 0.16528000 +0.535%
16 05:25 0.16528000 +0.535%
17 05:35 0.16528000 +0.535%
18 05:44 0.16510000 +0.426%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7024ms Confidence avant OB : 80% → 80%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.081
avg -0.075 ± 0.017
OBI Top 10 -0.074

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.1646
Micro Price
0.1646
Spread
0.0061%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.1640
Size
4,999,375.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1644 0.1705 0.1492 2.49 0.1509
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1644
  • Stop Loss: 0.1705
  • Take Profit: 0.1492

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1705 - 0.1644 = 0.0061

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1644 - 0.1492 = 0.0152

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0152 / 0.0061 = 2.4918

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
216.7396 100 1318.3677 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0061

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0061 = 1311.48

Taille de position USD = 1311.48 x 0.1644 = 215.61

Donc, tu peux acheter 1311.48 avec un stoploss a 0.1705

Avec un position size USD de 215.61$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1311.48 x 0.0061 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1311.48 x 0.0152 = 19.93

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.93$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1311.48
  • Taille de position USD 215.61
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.93
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4918

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
9.25 % 20.04 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.71 % 8.04 $
PNL PNL %
-8.04 $ -3.71
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.9659 % 106.88 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1644 0.1705 0.1492 2.49 0.1509
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1644
  • Stop Loss: 0.1705
  • Take Profit: 0.1492

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1705 - 0.1644 = 0.0061

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1644 - 0.1492 = 0.0152

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0152 / 0.0061 = 2.4918

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -3.711% (0.0061)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.225% 0.1R -1.174% 0.3R 0.2× 12
2h +0.225% 0.1R -2.251% 0.6R 0.1× 24
4h +0.225% 0.1R -2.251% 0.6R 0.1× 48
8h +0.225% 0.1R -2.251% 0.6R 0.1× 96
12h ★ +0.225% 0.1R -4.106% 1.1R 0.1× 144
24h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 288
36h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 432
48h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 576
72h +0.225% 0.1R -4.860% 1.3R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 12 min MAE in 727 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 6 days ago

Commentaires

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