Short Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.54 TAO at 238.88$ per unit. Take profit: 202.0211 (15.43 %) & Stop Loss: 253.6236 (6.17 %)
30 Oct 2026 at 01:15:17
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
30 Oct 2026 01:15
→ 13:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 238.88$
Qty 0.5426 TAO
Size 129.6186$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 202.0211 (+15.43%)
TP $ 20$
SL 253.6236 (-6.17%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.67%
/ +2.17$
MAE -0.38%
MFE +3.88%
0.6R
expires
30 Oct 13:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 234231)
#40 / 93
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 30/10/2026 01:00
score du 30/10/2026 01:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5531
Quality Score
0.537
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#40 / 93
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.17 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#40 / 93
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
6.17 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.72×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.82×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.52×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
20.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
30/10 01:01
30/10 01:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 28/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 29/10 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 30/10 00:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7308
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.90 |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
bear
0.90 |
expansion
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.67
Transition risk :
0.33
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
58.8%
Macro
alt_rotation
Local 4h
bullish
Leadership
alts_leading
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
expanding
Δ 15m
→+0.001
Δ 1h
▲+0.159
Δ 4h
▲+0.475
Δ 12h
▼-0.243
Δ 24h
▲+0.494
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 60.0% |
| 1h | 71.3% |
| 4h | 90.0% |
| 24h | 16.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 57.5% | +0.04% |
| 4h | 70.0% | +2.84% |
| 24h | 25.0% | -4.55% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
3.8%
Down ≥1σ
1.3%
Expansion
5.0%
Tail ↑
+0.31
Tail ↓
+0.59
Dispersion :
0.284
Universe :
80
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.55
Snapshot évalué :
30/10 01:01
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.2709
Score SMA
0.2878
Rank
#54
/ 86
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3765
Rank Norm SMA
0.2710
Calculé le
29/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1423 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -8.98% · r3d: -6.82% · ema21_slope: -0.5699% · dist_ema21: -11.242% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3119 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.83% · rs_3d: -4.12% · beta_24h: 2.166 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3386 | rvol_20: 1.50× · zscore_50: -0.362 · trend: -48.43% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5502 | ADX: 25.1 (trend) · Chop: 57.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 7.452% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
30/10/2026 01:00
Score brut
0.5368
Score SMA
0.5259
Rank
#40
/ 93
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5531
Rank Norm SMA
0.5479
Calculé le
30/10/2026 01:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4379 | r1h: 0.545% · r4h: 3.647% · r1d: -4.43% · r3d: -4.18% · ema21_slope: -0.3461% · dist_ema21: -1.860% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5269 | rs_1h: 0.511% · rs_4h: 2.344% · rs_1d: -1.93% · rs_3d: -2.29% · beta_24h: 1.900 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2843 | rvol_20: 0.14× · zscore_50: -0.383 · trend: 32.38% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7791 | ADX: 33.5 (trend) · Chop: 15.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.198% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
30/10/2026 00:00
Score brut
0.5971
Score SMA
0.4761
Rank
#27
/ 93
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6958
Rank Norm SMA
0.4961
Calculé le
30/10/2026 00:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3289 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.088% · r1d: -4.29% · r3d: -4.84% · ema21_slope: -0.0861% · dist_ema21: -5.423% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4328 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.764% · rs_1d: -2.24% · rs_3d: -2.84% · beta_24h: 1.960 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 5.16× · zscore_50: 4.595 · trend: 218.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6678 | ADX: 20.1 (weak) · Chop: 23.2 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.9010 | ATR%: 3.297% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.172%
(14.7436)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.356% | 0.2R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 3.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.356% | 0.2R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 3.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.884% | 0.5R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 7.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.064% | 0.5R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 8.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.881% | 0.6R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 10.3× | 143 |
| 24h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 804 min
MAE in 1169 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 5 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 5.13
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.65 | range_high | +0.21% | -0.77 | 28/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
44%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.72 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.91% | -0.34 | 29/10 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.86 | bear_high_confirmed | -2.50% | -0.19 | 30/10 00:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | — | 0.89 | bear_medium | -1.41% | +0.13 | 30/10 00:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#454109
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.661 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late 33b -1.9ATR | near -0.5ATR | — | 1.50 | 67% | ↓ -0.41 | below_value | -3.95 | — | #215749 | 0.65 | range_high | +0.21% | -0.77 |
28/10 20:00
upd 29/10 20:26
|
|
4h
#456082
|
↓ down | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.561 | volatile_reversal | bear_high_confirmed |
44%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 2b -1.7ATR | — | — | 5.16 | 96% | ↑ +0.83 | below_value | -2.94 | — | #216574 | 0.72 | bear_high_confirmed | -3.91% | -0.34 |
29/10 20:00
upd 30/10 00:22
|
|
1h
anchor #456545
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.403 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 4b -0.7ATR | — | — | 0.14 | 47% | ↑ +0.80 | below_value | -2.75 | — | #216856 | 0.86 | bear_high_confirmed | -2.50% | -0.19 |
30/10 00:00
upd 30/10 01:12
|
|
15m
#456449
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.648 | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late 18b 1.3ATR | — | — | 0.07 | 46% | ↓ -0.95 | below_value | -2.94 | — | #216574 | 0.89 | bear_medium | -1.41% | +0.13 |
30/10 00:45
upd 30/10 01:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 6.138×ATR | p80 | -1.935×ATR | p86 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 3.017×ATR | p32 | -1.653×ATR | p84 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 4b | — | 3.402×ATR | p72 | -0.698×ATR | p42 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 18b | — | 7.544×ATR | p97 | +1.337×ATR | p53 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7862
- reason: down_bo width=2.95×ATR dur=46b phase=extending
- stop_price: 253.62356468
- tp_price: 202.02108829
- atr:
- score: 0.78623242571583
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-10-30T17:15:09.221526
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.78623242571583
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0237
- obi_top10 : -0.0493
- micro_price : 239.32638095
- spread_pct : 0.012537
- mid_price : 239.315
- bid_wall_price : 237
- bid_wall_size : 5587.069
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0518
- obi_top5_std : 0.0182
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6961
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
260.42
- balance_zone_bottom:
245.84
- balance_zone_mid:
253.13
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793174400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793336400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.954
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
46
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7862
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793304000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
245.84
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7826
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
9
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.4101
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 4.93564682 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
46
inside_close_ratio
0.7826
bars_since_breakout
9
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4101
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:15 | 238.88000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 01:24 | 238.88000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 01:35 | 238.88000000 | 0% |
| 4 | 01:44 | 239.13000000 | +0.105% |
| 5 | 01:54 | 239.13000000 | +0.105% |
| 6 | 02:06 | 239.13000000 | +0.105% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6961ms
Confidence avant OB :
79%
→
79%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.024
avg -0.052
± 0.018
OBI Top 10
-0.049
Microstructure
Mid Price
239.3150
Micro Price
239.3264
Spread
0.0125%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
237.0000
Size
5,587.07
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238.88 | 253.6236 | 202.0211 | 2.5 | 224.09 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 238.88
- Stop Loss: 253.6236
- Take Profit: 202.0211
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 253.6236 - 238.88 = 14.7436
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 238.88 - 202.0211 = 36.8589
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 36.8589 / 14.7436 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129.6186 | 100 | 0.5426 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 14.7436
Taille de position = 8 / 14.7436 = 0.54
Taille de position USD = 0.54 x 238.88 = 129
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.54 avec un stoploss a 253.6236
Avec un position size USD de 129$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.54 x 14.7436 = 7.96
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.96$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.54 x 36.8589 = 19.9
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.9$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.54
- Taille de position USD 129
- Perte potentielle 7.96
- Gain potentiel 19.9
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 15.43 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.17 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 2.17 $ | 1.67 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3768 % | 6.1 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238.88 | 253.6236 | 202.0211 | 2.5 | 224.09 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 238.88
- Stop Loss: 253.6236
- Take Profit: 202.0211
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 253.6236 - 238.88 = 14.7436
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 238.88 - 202.0211 = 36.8589
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 36.8589 / 14.7436 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -6.172%
(14.7436)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.356% | 0.2R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 3.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.356% | 0.2R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 3.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.884% | 0.5R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 7.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.064% | 0.5R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 8.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.881% | 0.6R | -0.377% | 0.1R | 10.3× | 143 |
| 24h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.220% | 0.7R | -0.486% | 0.1R | 8.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 804 min
MAE in 1169 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 5 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.