Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3234.79 JUP at 0.256$ per unit. Take profit: 0.25 (2.42 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2587 (0.98 %)
01 Nov 2026 at 20:09:39
hyperliquid
JUP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
01 Nov 2026 20:09
→ 22:40
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 0.2562$
Qty 3234.7934 JUP
Size 828.7541$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 0.25 (+2.42%)
TP $ 20.06$
SL 0.2587 (-0.98%)
SL $ 8.09$
RR 2.48
Status
loss
PnL
-0.98%
/ -8.09$
MAE -1.07%
MFE +1.88%
1.9R
expires
02 Nov 08:09
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240319)
#8 / 53
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 01/11/2026 20:00
score du 01/11/2026 20:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5228
Quality Score
0.600
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#8 / 53
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#8 / 53
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 1.41×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.34×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
01/11 20:01
01/11 20:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 15:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 01/11 19:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7580
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
37.4%
Macro
btc_defensive
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→-0.012
Δ 1h
▼-0.182
Δ 4h
▲+0.223
Δ 12h
▲+0.145
Δ 24h
▼-0.341
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 51.5% |
| 1h | 9.1% |
| 4h | 54.6% |
| 24h | 36.4% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 54.6% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 33.3% | +0.12% |
| 24h | 27.3% | -0.58% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
3.0%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
3.0%
Tail ↑
+0.30
Tail ↓
+0.54
Dispersion :
0.082
Universe :
33
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
01/11 20:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3084
Score SMA
0.2800
Rank
#39
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2400
Rank Norm SMA
0.1568
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2741 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.08% · r3d: 3.40% · ema21_slope: -0.9098% · dist_ema21: -10.470% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4247 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.10% · rs_3d: 2.91% · beta_24h: 2.312 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1367 | rvol_20: 0.34× · zscore_50: -0.949 · trend: -61.29% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6178 | ADX: 22.3 (weak) · Chop: 46.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.793% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.6003
Score SMA
0.4891
Rank
#8
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5228
Rank Norm SMA
0.3488
Calculé le
01/11/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4570 | r1h: -1.069% · r4h: -0.437% · r1d: -1.18% · r3d: 3.89% · ema21_slope: -0.0544% · dist_ema21: -0.923% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4528 | rs_1h: -0.780% · rs_4h: -0.737% · rs_1d: -1.78% · rs_3d: 2.75% · beta_24h: 1.748 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8207 | rvol_20: 4.19× · zscore_50: 1.490 · trend: 41.05% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5259 | ADX: 21.1 (weak) · Chop: 56.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.821% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4255
Score SMA
0.4373
Rank
#34
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3592
Rank Norm SMA
0.2994
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3744 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.180% · r1d: -0.08% · r3d: 3.40% · ema21_slope: -0.1914% · dist_ema21: -1.151% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4798 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.472% · rs_1d: -1.10% · rs_3d: 2.91% · beta_24h: 2.323 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1689 | rvol_20: 0.43× · zscore_50: -0.466 · trend: -56.57% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3963 | ADX: 22.5 (weak) · Chop: 74.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.327% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.976%
(0.0025)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.753% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.265% | 0.3R | -0.753% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.265% | 0.3R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.448% | 1.5R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.877% | 1.9R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 1.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.995% | 6.1R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 5.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.409% | 6.6R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 6.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.409% | 6.6R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 6.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.354% | 7.5R | -3.849% | 3.9R | 1.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1550 min
MAE in 155 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 3 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.59
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.97 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | 0.60 | bear_high | -2.46% | -0.43 | 01/11 15:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.77 | range_low | -0.32% | -0.24 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.66 | range_low | +0.28% | -0.03 | 01/11 19:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#482003
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.553 | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 24b -1.5ATR | — | — | 0.34 | 10% | ↓ -0.46 | — | — | — | — | 0.58 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.97 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:19
|
|
4h
#482142
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.260 | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early 17b -0.7ATR | — | — | 0.43 | 13% | ↓ -0.75 | — | — | — | — | 0.60 | bear_high | -2.46% | -0.43 |
01/11 15:00
upd 01/11 19:37
|
|
1h
anchor #482283
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.544 | expansion | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid 5b -1.2ATR | — | — | 4.19 | 87% | ↑ +0.38 | below_value | -10.90 | — | #227491 | 0.77 | range_low | -0.32% | -0.24 |
01/11 19:00
upd 01/11 20:09
|
|
15m
#482229
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.569 | expansion_after_compression | bear_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid 3b -1.2ATR | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.25 | 48% | ↑ +0.57 | — | — | — | — | 0.66 | range_low | +0.28% | -0.03 |
01/11 19:45
upd 01/11 20:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 24b | — | 5.714×ATR | p75 | -1.481×ATR | p79 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 17b | — | 3.752×ATR | p48 | -0.705×ATR | p34 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 0.725×ATR | p0 | -1.232×ATR | p69 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 3.359×ATR | p56 | -1.169×ATR | p69 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8941
- reason: down_bo width=2.14×ATR dur=45b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.25867311
- tp_price: 0.25001723
- atr:
- score: 0.8941150608558
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T13:09:31.874694
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.8941150608558
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.127
- obi_top10 : -0.0072
- micro_price : 0.2573556
- spread_pct : 0.038865
- mid_price : 0.25735
- bid_wall_price : 0.256
- bid_wall_size : 669145
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.26
- ask_wall_size : 510135.4
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0477
- obi_top5_std : 0.0473
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7004
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.26062
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.256325
- balance_zone_mid:
0.2584725
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793422800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793581200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.141
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
45
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8941
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793577600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.256325
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7556
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.0623
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
13
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0020061 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
45
inside_close_ratio
0.7556
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.0623
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:09 | 0.25620000 | 0% |
| 2 | 20:21 | 0.25620000 | 0% |
| 3 | 20:33 | 0.25620000 | 0% |
| 4 | 22:10 | 0.25602000 | -0.07% |
| 5 | 22:21 | 0.25602000 | -0.07% |
| 6 | 22:33 | 0.25602000 | -0.07% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7004ms
Confidence avant OB :
89%
→
89%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.127
avg 0.048
± 0.047
OBI Top 10
-0.007
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.2574
Micro Price
0.2574
Spread
0.0389%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.2560
Size
669,145.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.2600
Size
510,135.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2562 | 0.2587 | 0.25 | 2.48 | 0.2408 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2562
- Stop Loss: 0.2587
- Take Profit: 0.25
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2587 - 0.2562 = 0.0025
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2562 - 0.25 = 0.0062
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0062 / 0.0025 = 2.48
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 828.7541 | 100 | 3234.7934 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0025
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0025 = 3200
Taille de position USD = 3200 x 0.2562 = 819.84
Donc, tu peux acheter 3200 avec un stoploss a 0.2587
Avec un position size USD de 819.84$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3200 x 0.0025 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3200 x 0.0062 = 19.84
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.84$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3200
- Taille de position USD 819.84
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.84
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.48
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.42 % | 20.06 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.98 % | 8.09 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.09 $ | -0.98 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0109 % | 103.6 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2562 | 0.2587 | 0.25 | 2.48 | 0.2408 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2562
- Stop Loss: 0.2587
- Take Profit: 0.25
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2587 - 0.2562 = 0.0025
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2562 - 0.25 = 0.0062
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0062 / 0.0025 = 2.48
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.976%
(0.0025)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.753% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.265% | 0.3R | -0.753% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.265% | 0.3R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.448% | 1.5R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.877% | 1.9R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 1.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.995% | 6.1R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 5.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +6.409% | 6.6R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 6.0× | 432 |
| 48h | +6.409% | 6.6R | -1.066% | 1.1R | 6.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +7.354% | 7.5R | -3.849% | 3.9R | 1.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1550 min
MAE in 155 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 3 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.