Short Trade on BCH (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2.28 BCH at 280.88$ per unit. Take profit: 272.1148 (3.12 %) & Stop Loss: 284.3861 (1.25 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 02:15:38
hyperliquid
BCH
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 02:15
→ 14:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 280.88$
Qty 2.2818 BCH
Size 640.8993$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 272.1148 (+3.12%)
TP $ 20$
SL 284.3861 (-1.25%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.95%
/ +12.48$
MAE -0.00%
MFE +2.92%
2.3R
expires
02 Nov 14:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240674)
#39 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 02:00
score du 02/11/2026 02:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5197
Quality Score
0.460
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#39 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.25 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#39 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.25 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.69×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.37×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.15×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 02:15
02/11 02:15
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (-2) 01/11 19:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/11 01:00 Score : -4 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7604
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
18.5%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.324
Δ 4h
▼-0.432
Δ 12h
▲+0.085
Δ 24h
▼-0.500
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 80.6% |
| 1h | 2.8% |
| 4h | 13.9% |
| 24h | 22.2% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 77.8% | +0.07% |
| 4h | 27.8% | -1.13% |
| 24h | 22.2% | -2.72% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
11.1%
Expansion
11.1%
Tail ↑
+0.66
Tail ↓
+0.51
Dispersion :
0.159
Universe :
36
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 02:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4223
Score SMA
0.4375
Rank
#13
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7600
Rank Norm SMA
0.7622
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5875 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.24% · r3d: 4.01% · ema21_slope: 0.0298% · dist_ema21: 0.100% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5342 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.26% · rs_3d: 3.52% · beta_24h: 1.408 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2062 | rvol_20: 0.53× · zscore_50: -0.373 · trend: -30.36% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4368 | ADX: 16.7 (weak) · Chop: 63.2 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0577 | ATR%: 5.827% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 02:00
Score brut
0.4595
Score SMA
0.5461
Rank
#39
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5197
Rank Norm SMA
0.6285
Calculé le
02/11/2026 02:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4386 | r1h: -0.719% · r4h: -1.451% · r1d: -1.42% · r3d: -1.08% · ema21_slope: -0.0219% · dist_ema21: -1.038% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4333 | rs_1h: -0.466% · rs_4h: -1.093% · rs_1d: -1.64% · rs_3d: -0.48% · beta_24h: 1.573 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1816 | rvol_20: 0.43× · zscore_50: -0.415 · trend: -43.04% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5552 | ADX: 18.8 (weak) · Chop: 50.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.742% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.4919
Score SMA
0.5622
Rank
#16
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7885
Rank Norm SMA
0.8115
Calculé le
01/11/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5397 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.559% · r1d: -0.31% · r3d: 0.75% · ema21_slope: -0.0279% · dist_ema21: 0.223% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5185 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.217% · rs_1d: -1.38% · rs_3d: 0.25% · beta_24h: 1.336 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2053 | rvol_20: 0.59× · zscore_50: -0.455 · trend: -33.55% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3956 | ADX: 14.1 (weak) · Chop: 65.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.144% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.248%
(3.5061)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.535% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.535% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.880% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.040% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.919% | 2.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 143 |
| 24h | +2.919% | 2.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 288 |
| 36h | +2.919% | 2.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 432 |
| 48h | +5.568% | 4.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 576 |
| 72h | +5.568% | 4.5R | -1.755% | 1.4R | 3.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 634 min
MAE in min
computed 4 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.94
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.66 | range_high | +0.70% | +0.81 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.54 | bear_high | -2.08% | +0.25 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.69 | range_low | -0.27% | -0.10 | 02/11 01:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | expansion_after_compression | bear_low |
47%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | — | — | 0.50 | range_low | +0.08% | -0.08 | 02/11 01:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#481970
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.563 | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early 17b 0.0ATR | — | — | 0.53 | 35% | ↓ -0.19 | above_value | +0.53 | — | #227327 | 0.66 | range_high | +0.70% | +0.81 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:17
|
|
4h
#483120
|
↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.634 | compression | bull_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 34% | early 12b 0.1ATR | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.59 | 42% | ↓ -0.70 | above_value | +1.31 | — | #227799 | 0.54 | bear_high | -2.08% | +0.25 |
01/11 19:00
upd 01/11 23:12
|
|
1h
anchor #483951
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.560 | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 3b -1.4ATR | — | — | 0.43 | 27% | ↑ +0.24 | above_value | -1.42 | — | #228155 | 0.69 | range_low | -0.27% | -0.10 |
02/11 01:00
upd 02/11 02:08
|
|
15m
#483901
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | 0.296 | expansion_after_compression | bear_low |
47%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late 4b -2.6ATR | — | — | 1.05 | 72% | ↑ +0.27 | above_value | -0.45 | — | #228056 | 0.50 | range_low | +0.08% | -0.08 |
02/11 01:45
upd 02/11 02:01
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 17b | — | 1.701×ATR | p0 | +0.018×ATR | p1 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 12b | — | 1.908×ATR | p4 | +0.139×ATR | p8 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.962×ATR | p63 | -1.417×ATR | p72 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 2.993×ATR | p39 | -2.612×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.9427
- reason: down_bo width=2.77×ATR dur=29b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 284.38607352
- tp_price: 272.11481619
- atr:
- score: 0.94269930677964
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T19:15:30.494261
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.94269930677964
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0646
- obi_top10 : 0.0315
- micro_price : 280.3528125
- spread_pct : 0.003567
- mid_price : 280.355
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0715
- obi_top5_std : 0.0042
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6836
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
286.94
- balance_zone_bottom:
281.435
- balance_zone_mid:
284.1875
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793502000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793602800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7723
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
29
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: forming
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9427
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793599200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
281.435
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7931
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2795
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 1.98573524 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
29
inside_close_ratio
0.7931
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2795
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:15 | 280.88000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 02:25 | 280.88000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 02:37 | 279.86000000 | -0.363% |
| 4 | 02:48 | 279.86000000 | -0.363% |
| 5 | 02:58 | 279.86000000 | -0.363% |
| 6 | 03:12 | 278.55000000 | -0.83% |
| 7 | 03:23 | 278.55000000 | -0.83% |
| 8 | 03:34 | 278.55000000 | -0.83% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6836ms
Confidence avant OB :
94%
→
94%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.065
avg 0.072
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
0.032
Microstructure
Mid Price
280.3550
Micro Price
280.3528
Spread
0.0036%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280.88 | 284.3861 | 272.1148 | 2.5 | 238.63 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 280.88
- Stop Loss: 284.3861
- Take Profit: 272.1148
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 284.3861 - 280.88 = 3.5061
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 280.88 - 272.1148 = 8.7652
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 8.7652 / 3.5061 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 640.8993 | 100 | 2.2818 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 3.5061
Taille de position = 8 / 3.5061 = 2.28
Taille de position USD = 2.28 x 280.88 = 640.41
Donc, tu peux acheter 2.28 avec un stoploss a 284.3861
Avec un position size USD de 640.41$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2.28 x 3.5061 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2.28 x 8.7652 = 19.98
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.98$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2.28
- Taille de position USD 640.41
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.98
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.12 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.25 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 12.48 $ | 1.95 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280.88 | 284.3861 | 272.1148 | 2.5 | 238.63 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 280.88
- Stop Loss: 284.3861
- Take Profit: 272.1148
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 284.3861 - 280.88 = 3.5061
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 280.88 - 272.1148 = 8.7652
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 8.7652 / 3.5061 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.248%
(3.5061)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.535% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.535% | 1.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.880% | 1.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.040% | 1.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.919% | 2.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 143 |
| 24h | +2.919% | 2.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 288 |
| 36h | +2.919% | 2.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 432 |
| 48h | +5.568% | 4.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 576 |
| 72h | +5.568% | 4.5R | -1.755% | 1.4R | 3.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 634 min
MAE in min
computed 4 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.