Short Trade on APT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 769.75 APT at 0.625$ per unit. Take profit: 0.5993 (4.16 %) & Stop Loss: 0.6357 (1.66 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 02:15:59
hyperliquid
APT
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 02:15
→ 07:15
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.6253$
Qty 769.7526 APT
Size 481.3263$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 0.5993 (+4.16%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 0.6357 (-1.66%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.66%
/ -8.01$
MAE -1.89%
MFE +1.71%
1.0R
expires
02 Nov 14:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240675)
#9 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 02:00
score du 02/11/2026 02:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6839
Quality Score
0.531
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#9 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.66 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#9 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.66 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -3.11×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 3.40×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.37×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 02:15
02/11 02:15
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 19:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/11 01:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7604
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
18.5%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.324
Δ 4h
▼-0.432
Δ 12h
▲+0.085
Δ 24h
▼-0.500
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 80.6% |
| 1h | 2.8% |
| 4h | 13.9% |
| 24h | 22.2% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 77.8% | +0.07% |
| 4h | 27.8% | -1.13% |
| 24h | 22.2% | -2.72% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
11.1%
Expansion
11.1%
Tail ↑
+0.66
Tail ↓
+0.51
Dispersion :
0.159
Universe :
36
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 02:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 02:00
Score brut
0.5308
Score SMA
0.4920
Rank
#9
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6839
Rank Norm SMA
0.3634
Calculé le
02/11/2026 02:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4240 | r1h: -1.203% · r4h: -0.763% · r1d: -1.93% · r3d: -0.05% · ema21_slope: -0.0557% · dist_ema21: -1.049% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4297 | rs_1h: -0.950% · rs_4h: -0.405% · rs_1d: -2.14% · rs_3d: 0.55% · beta_24h: 1.728 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4960 | rvol_20: 1.60× · zscore_50: 0.877 · trend: -3.52% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6465 | ADX: 25.8 (trend) · Chop: 46.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.957% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
01/11/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.4615
Score SMA
0.4274
Rank
#25
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4056
Rank Norm SMA
0.2562
Calculé le
01/11/2026 23:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3832 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.129% · r1d: 0.14% · r3d: 3.25% · ema21_slope: -0.2205% · dist_ema21: -0.867% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4836 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.786% · rs_1d: -0.92% · rs_3d: 2.74% · beta_24h: 2.163 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3257 | rvol_20: 1.07× · zscore_50: 0.137 · trend: -30.79% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4032 | ADX: 23.2 (weak) · Chop: 74.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.568% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.663%
(0.0104)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.368% | 0.2R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.368% | 0.2R | -0.752% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.368% | 0.2R | -0.800% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.416% | 0.3R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.711% | 1.0R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 0.9× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.959% | 1.8R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 1.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.039% | 1.8R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 1.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.389% | 3.2R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 2.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +5.389% | 3.2R | -5.565% | 3.4R | 1.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1509 min
MAE in 299 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.89
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.68 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.95 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.58 | bear_high | -2.08% | -0.26 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near -3.1ATR | — | 0.72 | range_low | -0.27% | -0.25 | 02/11 01:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.61 | range_low | +0.08% | -0.04 | 02/11 01:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#483746
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | grind | 0.575 | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 21b -1.7ATR | — | — | 0.30 | 13% | ↓ -0.65 | above_value | -10.67 | — | #228057 | 0.68 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.95 |
31/10 20:00
upd 02/11 01:17
|
|
4h
#483122
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.497 | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 13b -0.5ATR | — | — | 1.07 | 48% | ↓ -0.70 | above_value | -9.80 | — | #227800 | 0.58 | bear_high | -2.08% | -0.26 |
01/11 19:00
upd 01/11 23:12
|
|
1h
anchor #483952
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.404 | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early 3b -1.0ATR | near -3.1ATR | — | 1.60 | 72% | ↑ +0.27 | below_value | -11.99 | — | #228156 | 0.72 | range_low | -0.27% | -0.25 |
02/11 01:00
upd 02/11 02:08
|
|
15m
#483902
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.571 | normal | bear_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 12b -1.9ATR | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.25 | 47% | ↓ -0.46 | above_value | -10.67 | — | #228057 | 0.61 | range_low | +0.08% | -0.04 |
02/11 01:45
upd 02/11 02:01
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 21b | — | 5.55×ATR | p78 | -1.714×ATR | p77 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 13b | — | 1.243×ATR | p0 | -0.477×ATR | p22 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 2.409×ATR | p45 | -0.99×ATR | p59 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 4.58×ATR | p83 | -1.862×ATR | p92 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8608
- reason: down_bo width=1.65×ATR dur=48b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.63569295
- tp_price: 0.59931762
- atr:
- score: 0.86075289176472
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T19:15:51.189646
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.86075289176472
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1026
- obi_top10 : 0.2747
- micro_price : 0.62541922
- spread_pct : 0.047985
- mid_price : 0.62535
- bid_wall_price : 0.616
- bid_wall_size : 493062.73
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.635
- ask_wall_size : 450804.364
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0335
- obi_top5_std : 0.0647
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7070
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.6398
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.63045
- balance_zone_mid:
0.635125
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793433600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793602800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.6463
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
48
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8608
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793599200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.63045
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7292
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.9068
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0056795 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
48
inside_close_ratio
0.7292
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.9068
Signaux confirmants (7)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:15 | 0.62530000 | 0% |
| 2 | 02:26 | 0.62530000 | 0% |
| 3 | 02:38 | 0.62550000 | +0.032% |
| 4 | 02:48 | 0.62550000 | +0.032% |
| 5 | 02:58 | 0.62550000 | +0.032% |
| 6 | 03:12 | 0.62750000 | +0.352% |
| 7 | 03:23 | 0.62750000 | +0.352% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7070ms
Confidence avant OB :
86%
→
86%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.103
avg 0.034
± 0.065
OBI Top 10
0.275
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.6254
Micro Price
0.6254
Spread
0.0480%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.6160
Size
493,062.73
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.6350
Size
450,804.36
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6253 | 0.6357 | 0.5993 | 2.5 | 0.5868 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6253
- Stop Loss: 0.6357
- Take Profit: 0.5993
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6357 - 0.6253 = 0.0104
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6253 - 0.5993 = 0.026
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.026 / 0.0104 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 481.3263 | 100 | 769.7526 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0104
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0104 = 769.23
Taille de position USD = 769.23 x 0.6253 = 481
Donc, tu peux acheter 769.23 avec un stoploss a 0.6357
Avec un position size USD de 481$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 769.23 x 0.0104 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 769.23 x 0.026 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 769.23
- Taille de position USD 481
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.16 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.66 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -1.66 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8871 % | 113.46 % | 11 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6253 | 0.6357 | 0.5993 | 2.5 | 0.5868 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.6253
- Stop Loss: 0.6357
- Take Profit: 0.5993
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.6357 - 0.6253 = 0.0104
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.6253 - 0.5993 = 0.026
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.026 / 0.0104 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.5993
[entry_price] => 0.6253
[stop_loss] => 0.63674
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-11-02 12:15:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.663%
(0.0104)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.368% | 0.2R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.368% | 0.2R | -0.752% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.368% | 0.2R | -0.800% | 0.5R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.416% | 0.3R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.711% | 1.0R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 0.9× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.959% | 1.8R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 1.6× | 288 |
| 36h | +3.039% | 1.8R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 1.6× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.389% | 3.2R | -1.887% | 1.1R | 2.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +5.389% | 3.2R | -5.565% | 3.4R | 1.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1509 min
MAE in 299 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.