Short Trade on PONS (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 864.55 PONS at 0.23$ per unit. Take profit: 0.2243 (2.48 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2393 (4.04 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 05:15:09
hyperliquid
PONS
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 05:15
→ 08:40
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.23$
Qty 864.5452 PONS
Size 198.854$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.2243 (+2.48%)
TP $ 4.93$
SL 0.2393 (-4.04%)
SL $ 8.04$
RR 0.61
Status
loss
PnL
-4.04%
/ -8.04$
MAE -4.14%
MFE +0.73%
0.2R
expires
02 Nov 11:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 240917)
#50 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 05:00
score du 02/11/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3782
Quality Score
0.386
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#50 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.04 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#50 / 53
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.04 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.50×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc_leading
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
stable
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bearish
OK
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-1.01
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 05:03
02/11 05:03
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 01/11 23:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 02/11 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7616
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
compression
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
14.0%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→-0.004
Δ 1h
→-0.031
Δ 4h
▼-0.369
Δ 12h
▼-0.204
Δ 24h
▼-0.165
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 44.7% |
| 1h | 10.5% |
| 4h | 7.9% |
| 24h | 13.2% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 50.0% | -0.00% |
| 4h | 23.7% | -1.01% |
| 24h | 13.2% | -3.37% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
15.8%
Expansion
15.8%
Tail ↑
+0.47
Tail ↓
+0.73
Dispersion :
0.153
Universe :
38
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 05:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2783
Score SMA
0.2681
Rank
#46
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1000
Rank Norm SMA
0.2038
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2842 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 3.07% · r3d: 4.54% · ema21_slope: -1.8059% · dist_ema21: -15.681% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4462 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 2.05% · rs_3d: 4.06% · beta_24h: 3.982 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1285 | rvol_20: 0.35× · zscore_50: -1.073 · trend: -71.95% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3718 | ADX: 24.1 (weak) · Chop: 78.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 18.542% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.3856
Score SMA
0.5299
Rank
#50
/ 53
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3782
Rank Norm SMA
0.4946
Calculé le
02/11/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3047 | r1h: -0.479% · r4h: -2.758% · r1d: -5.68% · r3d: -4.01% · ema21_slope: -0.0671% · dist_ema21: -2.567% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3315 | rs_1h: -0.267% · rs_4h: -2.383% · rs_1d: -5.61% · rs_3d: -4.51% · beta_24h: 2.107 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3263 | rvol_20: 1.08× · zscore_50: -0.133 · trend: -17.69% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5340 | ADX: 17.5 (weak) · Chop: 52.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.709% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.2925
Score SMA
0.4510
Rank
#49
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1448
Rank Norm SMA
0.3603
Calculé le
02/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1975 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -4.457% · r1d: -3.05% · r3d: -2.16% · ema21_slope: -0.2506% · dist_ema21: -3.590% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3711 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -3.800% · rs_1d: -3.24% · rs_3d: -2.09% · beta_24h: 3.100 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1963 | rvol_20: 0.69× · zscore_50: -0.505 · trend: -54.70% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3484 | ADX: 13.5 (weak) · Chop: 70.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4898 | ATR%: 4.531% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.044%
(0.0093)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -0.174% | 0.0R | 1.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -1.657% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.735% | 0.2R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +8.257% | 2.0R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 2.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +11.630% | 2.9R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +18.696% | 4.6R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 4.5× | 288 |
| 48h | +18.696% | 4.6R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 4.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +18.696% | 4.6R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 4.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1284 min
MAE in 204 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | — | — | — | — | range_high | +0.70% | -0.84 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.41 | bear_high | -2.68% | +0.11 | 01/11 23:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.61 | range_low | -0.38% | -0.48 | 02/11 04:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.52 | range_low | -0.06% | -0.32 | 02/11 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#482078
|
↔ | — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | — | — | — | 0.35 | 2% | ↓ -0.45 | above_value | +0.12 | inside | #227361 | — | range_high | +0.70% | -0.84 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:22
|
|
4h
#484298
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.476 | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early 19b -1.0ATR | — | — | 0.69 | 18% | ↓ -0.64 | value | -1.94 | — | #228291 | 0.41 | bear_high | -2.68% | +0.11 |
01/11 23:00
upd 02/11 03:14
|
|
1h
anchor #484831
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.633 | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid 6b -1.6ATR | near -0.5ATR | — | 1.08 | 35% | ↔ +0.09 | value | -2.19 | — | #228546 | 0.61 | range_low | -0.38% | -0.48 |
02/11 04:00
upd 02/11 05:11
|
|
15m
#484779
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.363 | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late 11b -1.8ATR | — | — | 1.48 | 85% | ↔ +0.02 | value | -1.76 | — | #228444 | 0.52 | range_low | -0.06% | -0.32 |
02/11 04:45
upd 02/11 05:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 19b | — | 1.374×ATR | p0 | -1.041×ATR | p58 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 3.604×ATR | p78 | -1.576×ATR | p71 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 11b | — | 0.315×ATR | p3 | -1.769×ATR | p88 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.23926342
- tp_price: 0.22425975
- atr: 0.00370137
- expires_at: 2026-11-02T16:15:09+00:00
Details
- rank: 46
- total: 53
- score: 0.3012
- delta_2h: -0.0144
- extension_atr: -1.6
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.371
- confidence: 0.865
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:15 | 0.23001000 | +0.004% |
| 2 | 06:15 | 0.22987000 | -0.057% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.23 | 0.2393 | 0.2243 | 0.61 | 0.1555 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.23
- Stop Loss: 0.2393
- Take Profit: 0.2243
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2393 - 0.23 = 0.0093
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.23 - 0.2243 = 0.0057
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0057 / 0.0093 = 0.6129
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198.854 | 100 | 864.5452 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0093
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0093 = 860.22
Taille de position USD = 860.22 x 0.23 = 197.85
Donc, tu peux acheter 860.22 avec un stoploss a 0.2393
Avec un position size USD de 197.85$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 860.22 x 0.0093 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 860.22 x 0.0057 = 4.9
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.9$
Résumé
- Taille de position 860.22
- Taille de position USD 197.85
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.9
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.6129
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.48 % | 4.93 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.04 % | 8.04 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.04 $ | -4.04 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1391 % | 102.36 % | 11 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.23 | 0.2393 | 0.2243 | 0.61 | 0.1555 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.23
- Stop Loss: 0.2393
- Take Profit: 0.2243
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2393 - 0.23 = 0.0093
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.23 - 0.2243 = 0.0057
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0057 / 0.0093 = 0.6129
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.044%
(0.0093)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -0.174% | 0.0R | 1.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -1.657% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.261% | 0.1R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.735% | 0.2R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +8.257% | 2.0R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 2.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +11.630% | 2.9R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 2.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +18.696% | 4.6R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 4.5× | 288 |
| 48h | +18.696% | 4.6R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 4.5× | 576 |
| 72h | +18.696% | 4.6R | -4.139% | 1.0R | 4.5× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1284 min
MAE in 204 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 5 days ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.