Short Trade on ARB (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1877.07 ARB at 0.16$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1491 (6.7 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1641 (2.69 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 10:36:57
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 10:36
→ 22:30
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1598$
Qty 1877.0706 ARB
Size 299.9371$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1491 (+6.7%)
TP $ 20.08$
SL 0.1641 (-2.69%)
SL $ 8.07$
RR 2.49
Status
win
PnL
+4.84%
/ +14.51$
MAE -0.48%
MFE +5.31%
2.0R
expires
02 Nov 22:36
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241203)
#9 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 10:00
score du 02/11/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4297
Quality Score
0.598
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#9 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#9 / 60
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.69 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.84×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.09×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.52×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
4.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 10:30
02/11 10:30
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 03:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/11 09:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7638
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
53.6%
Macro
btc_led_risk_off
Local 4h
bullish
Leadership
alts_leading
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→+0.018
Δ 4h
▲+0.288
Δ 12h
→+0.007
Δ 24h
→+0.018
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 30.4% |
| 1h | 41.3% |
| 4h | 65.2% |
| 24h | 19.6% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 30.4% | -0.06% |
| 4h | 65.2% | +0.12% |
| 24h | 19.6% | -1.58% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
6.5%
Down ≥1σ
0.0%
Expansion
6.5%
Tail ↑
+0.55
Tail ↓
+0.43
Dispersion :
0.083
Universe :
46
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 10:31
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3342
Score SMA
0.3028
Rank
#30
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4200
Rank Norm SMA
0.2797
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3398 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.11% · r3d: 6.17% · ema21_slope: -0.7702% · dist_ema21: -6.201% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4915 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.13% · rs_3d: 5.68% · beta_24h: 2.382 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1346 | rvol_20: 0.25× · zscore_50: -0.981 · trend: -62.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5498 | ADX: 18.6 (weak) · Chop: 51.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.732% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 10:00
Score brut
0.5982
Score SMA
0.5072
Rank
#9
/ 60
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4297
Rank Norm SMA
0.4551
Calculé le
02/11/2026 10:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4281 | r1h: 0.296% · r4h: 0.138% · r1d: -2.74% · r3d: -2.52% · ema21_slope: -0.1222% · dist_ema21: -1.025% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4638 | rs_1h: 0.411% · rs_4h: 0.277% · rs_1d: -2.51% · rs_3d: -3.32% · beta_24h: 0.771 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7880 | rvol_20: 2.41× · zscore_50: 1.236 · trend: 128.39% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6413 | ADX: 18.0 (weak) · Chop: 39.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.975% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 07:00
Score brut
0.3865
Score SMA
0.4506
Rank
#42
/ 55
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2282
Rank Norm SMA
0.3652
Calculé le
02/11/2026 07:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3342 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -1.084% · r1d: -2.96% · r3d: -3.34% · ema21_slope: -0.0586% · dist_ema21: -2.825% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3887 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.813% · rs_1d: -2.86% · rs_3d: -4.02% · beta_24h: 2.090 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2617 | rvol_20: 0.96× · zscore_50: -0.200 · trend: -48.49% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2448 | ADX: 9.9 (weak) · Chop: 79.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.657% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.691%
(0.0043)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.239% | 0.5R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.334% | 0.9R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 4.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.960% | 1.1R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 6.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.517% | 1.3R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 7.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +5.307% | 2.0R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 11.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -1.884% | 0.7R | 2.8× | 288 |
| 36h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -1.884% | 0.7R | 2.8× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -7.897% | 2.9R | 0.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -7.897% | 2.9R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 683 min
MAE in 1313 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 6.66
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | — | — | 0.58 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.45 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | — | bear_high | -2.88% | +0.10 | 02/11 03:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.66 | range_low | -0.58% | -0.19 | 02/11 09:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
49%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | near 0.0ATR | 0.60 | range_low | -0.13% | +0.05 | 02/11 10:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#481943
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.675 | compression | bull_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid 39b -0.8ATR | — | — | 0.25 | 44% | ↓ -0.65 | above_value | -0.24 | — | #227319 | 0.58 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.45 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:16
|
|
4h
#485344
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | grind | 0.333 | compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid 20b -1.4ATR | — | — | 0.75 | 14% | ↓ -0.39 | below_value | -3.76 | — | #228712 | — | bear_high | -2.88% | +0.10 |
02/11 03:00
upd 02/11 07:11
|
|
1h
anchor #486249
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.385 | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 1b -1.1ATR | — | — | 2.41 | 91% | ↑ +0.53 | value | -3.01 | — | #229092 | 0.66 | range_low | -0.58% | -0.19 |
02/11 09:00
upd 02/11 10:09
|
|
15m
#486378
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.736 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
49%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early 6b 0.7ATR | — | near 0.0ATR | 0.31 | 73% | ↑ +0.27 | value | -3.01 | — | #229092 | 0.60 | range_low | -0.13% | +0.05 |
02/11 10:15
upd 02/11 10:30
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 39b | — | 6.444×ATR | p67 | -0.833×ATR | p36 |
| 4h | ↑ up | mid | 20b | — | 3.076×ATR | p35 | -1.413×ATR | p78 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 1b | — | 1.312×ATR | p2 | -1.073×ATR | p72 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +0.731×ATR | p51 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8104
- reason: down_bo width=2.63×ATR dur=63b phase=extending
- stop_price: 0.16405196
- tp_price: 0.14913511
- atr:
- score: 0.81035431448627
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T03:36:49.020566
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.81035431448627
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0137
- obi_top10 : 0.0199
- micro_price : 0.1596702
- spread_pct : 0.012526
- mid_price : 0.15968
- bid_wall_price : 0.159
- bid_wall_size : 4994739.548
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.16
- ask_wall_size : 5446004.3
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0068
- obi_top5_std : 0.004
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6959
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.16593
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.161865
- balance_zone_mid:
0.1638975
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793408400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793631600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6318
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
63
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8104
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793599200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.161865
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6825
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
9
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.3434
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00154456 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
63
inside_close_ratio
0.6825
bars_since_breakout
9
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3434
Signaux confirmants (4)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:36 | 0.15979000 | -0.006% |
| 2 | 10:45 | 0.15979000 | -0.006% |
| 3 | 10:54 | 0.15979000 | -0.006% |
| 4 | 11:05 | 0.15979000 | -0.006% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6959ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.014
avg 0.007
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
0.020
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1597
Micro Price
0.1597
Spread
0.0125%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.1590
Size
4,994,739.55
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.1600
Size
5,446,004.30
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1598 | 0.1641 | 0.1491 | 2.49 | 0.1503 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1598
- Stop Loss: 0.1641
- Take Profit: 0.1491
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1641 - 0.1598 = 0.0043
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1598 - 0.1491 = 0.0107
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0107 / 0.0043 = 2.4884
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 299.9371 | 100 | 1877.0706 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0043
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0043 = 1860.47
Taille de position USD = 1860.47 x 0.1598 = 297.3
Donc, tu peux acheter 1860.47 avec un stoploss a 0.1641
Avec un position size USD de 297.3$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1860.47 x 0.0043 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1860.47 x 0.0107 = 19.91
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.91$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1860.47
- Taille de position USD 297.3
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.91
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4884
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.7 % | 20.08 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.69 % | 8.07 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 14.51 $ | 4.84 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4819 % | 17.91 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1598 | 0.1641 | 0.1491 | 2.49 | 0.1503 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1598
- Stop Loss: 0.1641
- Take Profit: 0.1491
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1641 - 0.1598 = 0.0043
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1598 - 0.1491 = 0.0107
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0107 / 0.0043 = 2.4884
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.691%
(0.0043)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.239% | 0.5R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 2.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +2.334% | 0.9R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 4.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.960% | 1.1R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 6.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.517% | 1.3R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 7.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +5.307% | 2.0R | -0.482% | 0.2R | 11.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -1.884% | 0.7R | 2.8× | 288 |
| 36h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -1.884% | 0.7R | 2.8× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -7.897% | 2.9R | 0.7× | 576 |
| 72h | +5.307% | 2.0R | -7.897% | 2.9R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 683 min
MAE in 1313 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.