Short Trade on AVAX (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 57.92 AVAX at 8.505$ per unit. Take profit: 8.16 (4.06 %) & Stop Loss: 8.6434 (1.62 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 11:17:38
hyperliquid
AVAX
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 11:17
→ 23:15
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 8.5053$
Qty 57.9173 AVAX
Size 492.6044$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 8.16 (+4.06%)
TP $ 20$
SL 8.6434 (-1.62%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.86%
/ +9.15$
MAE -0.00%
MFE +2.73%
1.7R
expires
02 Nov 23:17
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241262)
#50 / 62
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 11:00
score du 02/11/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6195
Quality Score
0.484
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#50 / 62
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.62 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#50 / 62
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
75 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.62 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.35×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.97×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.53×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
7.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 11:15
02/11 11:15
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/11 10:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7641
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
29.8%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
mixed
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
▼-0.202
Δ 1h
▼-0.238
Δ 4h
→-0.010
Δ 12h
▼-0.405
Δ 24h
▼-0.116
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 44.7% |
| 1h | 53.2% |
| 4h | 31.9% |
| 24h | 14.9% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 21.3% | -0.06% |
| 4h | 46.8% | -0.26% |
| 24h | 23.4% | -3.00% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
4.3%
Down ≥1σ
4.3%
Expansion
8.5%
Tail ↑
+0.43
Tail ↓
+0.56
Dispersion :
0.111
Universe :
47
(+1 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+1 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 11:16
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3790
Score SMA
0.3187
Rank
#19
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6400
Rank Norm SMA
0.3808
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3072 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 1.64% · r3d: 5.16% · ema21_slope: -0.7634% · dist_ema21: -5.716% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4946 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.62% · rs_3d: 4.68% · beta_24h: 1.718 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3775 | rvol_20: 1.59× · zscore_50: -0.286 · trend: -33.45% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5847 | ADX: 24.9 (weak) · Chop: 53.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 6.303% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.4835
Score SMA
0.5316
Rank
#50
/ 62
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6195
Rank Norm SMA
0.5887
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4145 | r1h: -0.909% · r4h: -0.775% · r1d: -3.05% · r3d: 1.84% · ema21_slope: -0.0724% · dist_ema21: -1.314% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4597 | rs_1h: -0.467% · rs_4h: -0.304% · rs_1d: -2.46% · rs_3d: 1.95% · beta_24h: 1.446 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8204 | rvol_20: 2.46× · zscore_50: 1.597 · trend: 99.92% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5068 | ADX: 13.1 (weak) · Chop: 50.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.951% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.5638
Score SMA
0.5069
Rank
#12
/ 62
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8961
Rank Norm SMA
0.6150
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4081 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.775% · r1d: -3.05% · r3d: 1.84% · ema21_slope: 0.0194% · dist_ema21: -1.566% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4672 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.304% · rs_1d: -2.46% · rs_3d: 1.95% · beta_24h: 1.656 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8487 | rvol_20: 2.80× · zscore_50: 1.780 · trend: 71.45% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5009 | ADX: 15.1 (weak) · Chop: 53.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.119% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.624%
(0.1381)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.816% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +2.123% | 1.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.725% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 144 |
| 24h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -2.138% | 1.3R | 1.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -2.138% | 1.3R | 1.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -7.895% | 4.9R | 0.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.438% | 2.7R | -7.895% | 4.9R | 0.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 212 min
MAE in 1272 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.67
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late | — | — | 0.72 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.80 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.64 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.08 | 02/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | near -0.3ATR | — | 0.78 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.00% | -0.14 | 02/11 10:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | explosive | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | — | 0.57 | range_low | -0.52% | -0.02 | 02/11 11:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#481934
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.551 | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late 33b -1.1ATR | — | — | 1.59 | 79% | ↓ -0.35 | value | -1.32 | — | #227317 | 0.72 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.80 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:16
|
|
4h
#486575
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.582 | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early 8b -0.9ATR | near -1.0ATR | — | 2.80 | 87% | ↑ +0.61 | value | -0.93 | — | #229213 | 0.64 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.08 |
02/11 07:00
upd 02/11 11:12
|
|
1h
anchor #486574
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.416 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 7b -1.4ATR | near -0.3ATR | — | 2.46 | 96% | ↑ +0.53 | value | -0.93 | — | #229213 | 0.78 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.00% | -0.14 |
02/11 10:00
upd 02/11 11:12
|
|
15m
#486650
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | explosive | 0.420 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid 4b -1.1ATR | — | — | 0.68 | 80% | ↑ +0.73 | value | -0.93 | — | #229213 | 0.57 | range_low | -0.52% | -0.02 |
02/11 11:00
upd 02/11 11:16
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 6.05×ATR | p85 | -1.136×ATR | p66 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 3.053×ATR | p32 | -0.89×ATR | p54 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 1.998×ATR | p29 | -1.39×ATR | p77 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 2.41×ATR | p40 | -1.094×ATR | p65 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7465
- reason: down_bo width=2.75×ATR dur=46b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 8.64342788
- tp_price: 8.1599803
- atr:
- score: 0.74653077312153
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T04:17:30.734703
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.74653077312153
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0282
- obi_top10 : -0.038
- micro_price : 8.4789459
- spread_pct : 0.011795
- mid_price : 8.4785
- bid_wall_price : 8.44
- bid_wall_size : 116571.1
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0653
- obi_top5_std : 0.0501
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6881
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
8.7418
- balance_zone_bottom:
8.5296
- balance_zone_mid:
8.6357
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793473200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793635200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7459
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
46
- balance_zone_quality: drifting
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7465
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793631600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
8.5296
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6522
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.3144
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0772788 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
46
inside_close_ratio
0.6522
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3144
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:17 | 8.50530000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:27 | 8.50530000 | 0% |
| 3 | 11:38 | 8.49050000 | -0.174% |
| 4 | 11:47 | 8.49050000 | -0.174% |
| 5 | 11:56 | 8.49050000 | -0.174% |
| 6 | 12:08 | 8.47360000 | -0.373% |
| 7 | 12:18 | 8.47360000 | -0.373% |
| 8 | 12:26 | 8.47360000 | -0.373% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6881ms
Confidence avant OB :
75%
→
75%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.028
avg 0.065
± 0.050
OBI Top 10
-0.038
Microstructure
Mid Price
8.4785
Micro Price
8.4789
Spread
0.0118%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
8.4400
Size
116,571.10
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5053 | 8.6434 | 8.16 | 2.5 | 8.285 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 8.5053
- Stop Loss: 8.6434
- Take Profit: 8.16
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 8.6434 - 8.5053 = 0.1381
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 8.5053 - 8.16 = 0.3453
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.3453 / 0.1381 = 2.5004
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 492.6044 | 100 | 57.9173 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.1381
Taille de position = 8 / 0.1381 = 57.93
Taille de position USD = 57.93 x 8.5053 = 492.71
Donc, tu peux acheter 57.93 avec un stoploss a 8.6434
Avec un position size USD de 492.71$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 57.93 x 0.1381 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 57.93 x 0.3453 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 57.93
- Taille de position USD 492.71
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5004
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.06 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.62 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 9.15 $ | 1.86 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5053 | 8.6434 | 8.16 | 2.5 | 8.285 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 8.5053
- Stop Loss: 8.6434
- Take Profit: 8.16
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 8.6434 - 8.5053 = 0.1381
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 8.5053 - 8.16 = 0.3453
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.3453 / 0.1381 = 2.5004
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.624%
(0.1381)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.816% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +2.123% | 1.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.725% | 1.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 144 |
| 24h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -2.138% | 1.3R | 1.3× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -2.138% | 1.3R | 1.3× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.725% | 1.7R | -7.895% | 4.9R | 0.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.438% | 2.7R | -7.895% | 4.9R | 0.6× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 212 min
MAE in 1272 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.