02 Nov 2026 at 12:16:00 hyperliquid

Short Trade on LIT (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 89 LIT at 3.052$ per unit. Take profit: 2.8276 (7.36 %) & Stop Loss: 3.1422 (2.95 %)

LIT SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Nov 2026 12:16 → 23:25 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 3.0523$

Qty 88.9984 LIT

Size 271.65$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 2.8276 (+7.36%)

TP $ 20$

SL 3.1422 (-2.95%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -2.95% / -8$ MAE -3.14% MFE +1.57% 0.5R expires 03 Nov 00:15

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 241442)
#28 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 12:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4349

Quality Score
0.519
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#28 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#28 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.95 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 4.27×ATR
4h clear 2.81×ATR
1d clear 2.36×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down early OK
4h ↑ up early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
25.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 12:02
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

31/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/11 07:00

Tactical (1H) : range_high (0)

02/11 11:00

Score : +5 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7644
Voir snapshot →
bear developing bear_expansion
Strategic bear

0.55

expansion

+2

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.63
Transition risk : 0.37
Score contribution (this trade) +3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 38.2%
Macro btc_led_risk_off
Local 4h mixed Leadership balanced
Legacy leadership : alts
Breadth state deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.118
Δ 4h
▲+0.083
Δ 12h
▼-0.238
Δ 24h
▲+0.083

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 62.5%
1h 52.1%
4h 39.6%
24h 20.8%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 66.7% +0.05%
4h 58.3% -0.20%
24h 22.9% -2.69%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
4.2%
Down ≥1σ
6.3%
Expansion
10.4%
Tail ↑
+0.46
Tail ↓
+0.70
Dispersion : 0.096
Universe : 48 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.78
Snapshot évalué : 02/11 12:01 · env bear_trend

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4134
Score SMA
0.2965
Rank
#14 / 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7400
Rank Norm SMA
0.2991
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3378 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.13% · r3d: 16.91% · ema21_slope: -0.8813% · dist_ema21: -1.814%
Force Relative 25% 0.6090 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.89% · rs_3d: 16.42% · beta_24h: 2.779
Volume 20% 0.3981 rvol_20: 1.30× · zscore_50: -0.038 · trend: 4.56%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5345 ADX: 14.0 (weak) · Chop: 48.4 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 0.0000 ATR%: 11.516% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/11/2026 12:00
Score brut
0.5185
Score SMA
0.5248
Rank
#28 / 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4349
Rank Norm SMA
0.4474
Calculé le
02/11/2026 12:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4818 r1h: -0.956% · r4h: -0.340% · r1d: -4.97% · r3d: 10.92% · ema21_slope: -0.0958% · dist_ema21: -1.771%
Force Relative 25% 0.5010 rs_1h: -0.920% · rs_4h: 0.085% · rs_1d: -4.14% · rs_3d: 10.71% · beta_24h: 2.896
Volume 20% 0.2560 rvol_20: 0.83× · zscore_50: -0.533 · trend: -21.23%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4624 ADX: 13.4 (weak) · Chop: 56.7 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.929% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.5377
Score SMA
0.4327
Rank
#20 / 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7264
Rank Norm SMA
0.3557
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6170 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.300% · r1d: -3.85% · r3d: 10.03% · ema21_slope: 0.5457% · dist_ema21: 1.224%
Force Relative 25% 0.5794 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.772% · rs_1d: -3.26% · rs_3d: 10.13% · beta_24h: 3.524
Volume 20% 0.3138 rvol_20: 0.98× · zscore_50: -0.058 · trend: -19.81%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6216 ADX: 21.0 (weak) · Chop: 44.8 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 0.5172 ATR%: 4.448% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.945% (0.0899)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.569% 0.5R -1.697% 0.6R 0.9× 12
2h +1.569% 0.5R -1.697% 0.6R 0.9× 24
4h +1.569% 0.5R -2.080% 0.7R 0.8× 48
8h +1.569% 0.5R -2.513% 0.9R 0.6× 96
12h ★ +1.569% 0.5R -3.135% 1.1R 0.5× 144
24h +1.569% 0.5R -13.721% 4.7R 0.1× 288
36h +1.569% 0.5R -13.721% 4.7R 0.1× 432
48h +1.569% 0.5R -17.171% 5.8R 0.1× 576
72h +1.569% 0.5R -17.171% 5.8R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 4 min MAE in 1359 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.2
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong balanced normal bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 37% early — — 0.42 range_high +0.70% -0.24 31/10 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
63%
noisy_chop 39% early — near 0.5ATR 0.50 bear_high -3.28% +0.73 02/11 07:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind normal range_high
36%
noisy_chop 38% early — — 0.41 bear_medium_confirmed -1.01% -0.26 02/11 11:00
15m ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced expansion_after_compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 40% mid near -0.5ATR — 0.45 range_low -0.64% -0.01 02/11 11:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#482064
↓ down transition bearish_transition strong balanced 0.504 normal bear_high
59%
noisy_chop 37% early 11b -0.2ATR — — 1.30 70% ↔ +0.14 value +1.11 — #227357 0.42 range_high +0.70% -0.24
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:21
4h
#486705
↔ neutral range range moderate grind 0.549 compression bear_high
63%
noisy_chop 39% early 13b 0.3ATR — near 0.5ATR 0.98 70% ↑ +0.21 above_value +0.14 — #229267 0.50 bear_high -3.28% +0.73
02/11 07:00
upd 02/11 11:19
1h anchor
#487018
↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.385 normal range_high
36%
noisy_chop 38% early 1b -0.9ATR — — 0.83 59% ↔ +0.03 above_value -0.45 — #229458 0.41 bear_medium_confirmed -1.01% -0.26
02/11 11:00
upd 02/11 12:11
15m
#486952
↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced 0.592 expansion_after_compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 40% mid 7b -0.9ATR near -0.5ATR — 0.40 23% ↔ -0.13 above_value +0.14 — #229267 0.45 range_low -0.64% -0.01
02/11 11:45
upd 02/11 12:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 11b — 2.272×ATR p0 -0.161×ATR p9
4h ↑ up early 13b — 3.036×ATR p41 +0.283×ATR p14
1h ↓ down early 1b — 1.663×ATR p13 -0.934×ATR p48
15m ↓ down mid 7b — 3.058×ATR p65 -0.93×ATR p54

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.8569
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.78×ATR dur=43b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 3.14218921
  5. tp_price: 2.82757698
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.85693459071349
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-11-03T05:15:52.251122
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.85693459071349
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : 0.1541
  14. obi_top10 : 0.0907
  15. micro_price : 3.04572222
  16. spread_pct : 0.032841
  17. mid_price : 3.0455
  18. bid_wall_price : 2.98
  19. bid_wall_size : 17944
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 3.12
  22. ask_wall_size : 28827
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 4
  25. obi_top5_mean : 0.056
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.1161
  27. pressure_side : neutral
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 6564
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.01
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    3.1882
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    3.08455
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    3.136375
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793487600
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793638800
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    1.7827
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    43
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.8569
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793635200
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    3.08455
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.6977
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.5547
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    1
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    1
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    11
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    9
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.05814207
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
43
inside_close_ratio
0.6977
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5547

Signaux confirmants (26)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 12:16 3.05230000 0%
2 12:24 3.05230000 0%
3 12:35 3.05230000 0%
4 12:44 3.07830000 +0.852%
5 12:53 3.07830000 +0.852%
6 13:04 3.07830000 +0.852%
7 13:17 3.07420000 +0.717%
8 13:27 3.07420000 +0.717%
9 13:38 3.07560000 +0.763%
10 13:48 3.07560000 +0.763%
11 13:56 3.07560000 +0.763%
12 14:12 3.05210000 -0.007%
13 14:26 3.05210000 -0.007%
14 14:41 3.04910000 -0.105%
15 14:52 3.04910000 -0.105%
16 15:01 3.04910000 -0.105%
17 15:42 3.07970000 +0.898%
18 15:51 3.07970000 +0.898%
19 15:59 3.07970000 +0.898%
20 16:10 3.06340000 +0.364%
21 16:19 3.06340000 +0.364%
22 16:27 3.06340000 +0.364%
23 16:38 3.04670000 -0.183%
24 16:47 3.04670000 -0.183%
25 16:55 3.04670000 -0.183%
26 17:09 3.04670000 -0.183%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 4 snapshots 6564ms Confidence avant OB : 86% → 86%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.154
avg 0.056 ± 0.116
OBI Top 10 0.091

Microstructure

Mid Price
3.0455
Micro Price
3.0457
Spread
0.0328%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
2.9800
Size
17,944.00

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
3.1200
Size
28,827.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
3.0523 3.1422 2.8276 2.5 3.2708
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 3.0523
  • Stop Loss: 3.1422
  • Take Profit: 2.8276

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 3.1422 - 3.0523 = 0.0899

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 3.0523 - 2.8276 = 0.2247

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2247 / 0.0899 = 2.4994

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
271.65 100 88.9984 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0899

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0899 = 88.99

Taille de position USD = 88.99 x 3.0523 = 271.62

Donc, tu peux acheter 88.99 avec un stoploss a 3.1422

Avec un position size USD de 271.62$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 88.99 x 0.0899 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 88.99 x 0.2247 = 20

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 88.99
  • Taille de position USD 271.62
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4994

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
7.36 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.95 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -2.95
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-3.1353 % 106.45 % 31
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
3.0523 3.1422 2.8276 2.5 3.2708
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 3.0523
  • Stop Loss: 3.1422
  • Take Profit: 2.8276

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 3.1422 - 3.0523 = 0.0899

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 3.0523 - 2.8276 = 0.2247

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.2247 / 0.0899 = 2.4994

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.945% (0.0899)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.569% 0.5R -1.697% 0.6R 0.9× 12
2h +1.569% 0.5R -1.697% 0.6R 0.9× 24
4h +1.569% 0.5R -2.080% 0.7R 0.8× 48
8h +1.569% 0.5R -2.513% 0.9R 0.6× 96
12h ★ +1.569% 0.5R -3.135% 1.1R 0.5× 144
24h +1.569% 0.5R -13.721% 4.7R 0.1× 288
36h +1.569% 0.5R -13.721% 4.7R 0.1× 432
48h +1.569% 0.5R -17.171% 5.8R 0.1× 576
72h +1.569% 0.5R -17.171% 5.8R 0.1× 864
⏱ MFE in 4 min MAE in 1359 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

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