Short Trade on XLM (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3576.52 XLM at 0.166$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1607 (3.37 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1685 (1.32 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 13:14:09
hyperliquid
XLM
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 13:14
→ 01:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1663$
Qty 3576.5219 XLM
Size 594.7041$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1607 (+3.37%)
TP $ 20.03$
SL 0.1685 (-1.32%)
SL $ 7.87$
RR 2.55
Status
win
PnL
+3.14%
/ +18.7$
MAE -0.00%
MFE +3.23%
2.4R
expires
03 Nov 01:14
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241488)
#7 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 13:00
score du 02/11/2026 13:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5613
Quality Score
0.558
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#7 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.32 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#7 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.32 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.84×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.11×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.93×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 13:02
02/11 13:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 31/10 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) 02/11 12:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7648
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
11.1%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.271
Δ 4h
▼-0.199
Δ 12h
▼-0.398
Δ 24h
▼-0.156
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 33.3% |
| 1h | 8.3% |
| 4h | 6.3% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 29.2% | -0.05% |
| 4h | 18.8% | -1.88% |
| 24h | 16.7% | -3.69% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
54.2%
Expansion
54.2%
Tail ↑
+0.81
Tail ↓
+0.57
Dispersion :
0.192
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 13:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3564
Score SMA
0.3441
Rank
#24
/ 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5400
Rank Norm SMA
0.4918
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2805 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.69% · r3d: 3.90% · ema21_slope: -0.6617% · dist_ema21: -4.955% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4620 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.71% · rs_3d: 3.41% · beta_24h: 1.426 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2008 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.736 · trend: -21.95% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5785 | ADX: 27.6 (trend) · Chop: 57.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.2979 | ATR%: 5.106% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 13:00
Score brut
0.5580
Score SMA
0.5246
Rank
#7
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5613
Rank Norm SMA
0.5718
Calculé le
02/11/2026 13:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4323 | r1h: -0.736% · r4h: -1.414% · r1d: -1.28% · r3d: -1.11% · ema21_slope: -0.0375% · dist_ema21: -1.074% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4677 | rs_1h: -0.296% · rs_4h: -0.384% · rs_1d: -0.23% · rs_3d: -1.09% · beta_24h: 1.354 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7778 | rvol_20: 2.29× · zscore_50: 1.665 · trend: 85.10% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5771 | ADX: 13.3 (weak) · Chop: 42.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.722% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.5663
Score SMA
0.5100
Rank
#10
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6867
Rank Norm SMA
0.6406
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4480 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.161% · r1d: -0.58% · r3d: -2.58% · ema21_slope: -0.0301% · dist_ema21: -0.561% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5082 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.633% · rs_1d: 0.01% · rs_3d: -2.47% · beta_24h: 1.404 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8497 | rvol_20: 2.93× · zscore_50: 1.962 · trend: 48.12% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2326 | ADX: 8.1 (weak) · Chop: 79.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.565% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.323%
(0.0022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.872% | 0.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.864% | 1.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.864% | 1.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.832% | 2.1R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.229% | 2.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 144 |
| 24h | +3.434% | 2.6R | -0.409% | 0.3R | 8.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +5.592% | 4.2R | -0.409% | 0.3R | 13.7× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.592% | 4.2R | -2.989% | 2.3R | 1.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.894% | 6.7R | -2.989% | 2.3R | 3.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1965 min
MAE in 1155 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.98
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.58 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 | 31/10 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | near -0.1ATR | 0.73 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.19 | 02/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near -1.8ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.42% | -0.02 | 02/11 12:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.73 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.00% | -0.03 | 02/11 12:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#482021
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.392 | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 33b -1.2ATR | — | — | 0.58 | 36% | ↔ +0.02 | above_value | +0.06 | — | #227343 | 0.58 | range_high | +0.70% | -0.66 |
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:19
|
|
4h
#486657
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.435 | compression | bear_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early 17b -0.5ATR | — | near -0.1ATR | 2.93 | 95% | ↔ -0.10 | above_value | -0.36 | — | #229251 | 0.73 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.19 |
02/11 07:00
upd 02/11 11:16
|
|
1h
anchor #487332
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.523 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
45%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late 3b -1.6ATR | near -1.8ATR | — | 2.29 | 94% | ↑ +0.55 | below_value | -2.36 | — | #229568 | 0.75 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.42% | -0.02 |
02/11 12:00
upd 02/11 13:11
|
|
15m
#487266
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.508 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 11b -1.5ATR | — | — | 0.46 | 89% | ↓ -0.65 | value | -0.96 | — | #229441 | 0.73 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.00% | -0.03 |
02/11 12:45
upd 02/11 13:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 8.011×ATR | p91 | -1.19×ATR | p64 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 17b | — | 1.822×ATR | p0 | -0.476×ATR | p25 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 2.531×ATR | p48 | -1.593×ATR | p81 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 11b | — | 3.823×ATR | p74 | -1.462×ATR | p85 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7951
- reason: down_bo width=2.45×ATR dur=40b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.16851681
- tp_price: 0.16068797
- atr:
- score: 0.79509509243879
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T06:14:00.922694
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.79509509243879
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0479
- obi_top10 : 0.0102
- micro_price : 0.16563551
- spread_pct : 0.006038
- mid_price : 0.165635
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0316
- obi_top5_std : 0.0127
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7059
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.16983
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.16697
- balance_zone_mid:
0.1684
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793502000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793642400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4484
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
40
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7951
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793638800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.16697
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.95
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.5907
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
12
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00116813 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
40
inside_close_ratio
0.95
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5907
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:14 | 0.16628000 | -0.012% |
| 2 | 13:25 | 0.16628000 | -0.012% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7059ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.048
avg -0.032
± 0.013
OBI Top 10
0.010
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1656
Micro Price
0.1656
Spread
0.0060%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1663 | 0.1685 | 0.1607 | 2.55 | 0.148 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1663
- Stop Loss: 0.1685
- Take Profit: 0.1607
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1685 - 0.1663 = 0.0022
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1663 - 0.1607 = 0.0056
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0056 / 0.0022 = 2.5455
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 594.7041 | 100 | 3576.5219 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0022
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0022 = 3636.36
Taille de position USD = 3636.36 x 0.1663 = 604.73
Donc, tu peux acheter 3636.36 avec un stoploss a 0.1685
Avec un position size USD de 604.73$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3636.36 x 0.0022 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3636.36 x 0.0056 = 20.36
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.36$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3636.36
- Taille de position USD 604.73
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.36
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5455
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.37 % | 20.03 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.32 % | 7.87 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 18.7 $ | 3.14 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1663 | 0.1685 | 0.1607 | 2.55 | 0.148 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1663
- Stop Loss: 0.1685
- Take Profit: 0.1607
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1685 - 0.1663 = 0.0022
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1663 - 0.1607 = 0.0056
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0056 / 0.0022 = 2.5455
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.323%
(0.0022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.872% | 0.7R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.864% | 1.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.864% | 1.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +2.832% | 2.1R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +3.229% | 2.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 144 |
| 24h | +3.434% | 2.6R | -0.409% | 0.3R | 8.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +5.592% | 4.2R | -0.409% | 0.3R | 13.7× | 432 |
| 48h | +5.592% | 4.2R | -2.989% | 2.3R | 1.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +8.894% | 6.7R | -2.989% | 2.3R | 3.0× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1965 min
MAE in 1155 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.