Short Trade on FIL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 575.94 FIL at 0.862$ per unit. Take profit: 0.8273 (4.04 %) & Stop Loss: 0.876 (1.61 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 13:12:57
hyperliquid
FIL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 13:12
→ 18:10
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.8621$
Qty 575.9423 FIL
Size 496.5026$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 0.8273 (+4.04%)
TP $ 20.04$
SL 0.876 (-1.61%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.61%
/ -8.01$
MAE -1.89%
MFE +1.18%
0.7R
expires
03 Nov 01:12
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 241479)
#28 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 13:00
score du 02/11/2026 13:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5292
Quality Score
0.497
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#28 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.61 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#28 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.61 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 7.96×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.33×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 13:01
02/11 13:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 02/11 12:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7648
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
range
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.63
Transition risk :
0.37
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
11.1%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.271
Δ 4h
▼-0.199
Δ 12h
▼-0.398
Δ 24h
▼-0.156
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 33.3% |
| 1h | 8.3% |
| 4h | 6.3% |
| 24h | 8.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 29.2% | -0.05% |
| 4h | 18.8% | -1.88% |
| 24h | 16.7% | -3.69% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
54.2%
Expansion
54.2%
Tail ↑
+0.81
Tail ↓
+0.57
Dispersion :
0.192
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.78
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 13:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
Score brut
0.3217
Score SMA
0.3076
Rank
#39
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3214
Rank Norm SMA
0.3261
Calculé le
31/10/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2356 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: 0.26% · r3d: -4.68% · ema21_slope: -0.9792% · dist_ema21: -9.761% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4560 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.01% · rs_3d: -0.03% · beta_24h: 2.406 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2652 | rvol_20: 0.77× · zscore_50: -0.425 · trend: -12.73% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5600 | ADX: 23.8 (weak) · Chop: 55.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 9.853% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 13:00
Score brut
0.4966
Score SMA
0.5051
Rank
#28
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5292
Rank Norm SMA
0.4967
Calculé le
02/11/2026 13:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4333 | r1h: -0.678% · r4h: -1.182% · r1d: -2.09% · r3d: -0.58% · ema21_slope: -0.0608% · dist_ema21: -0.991% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4692 | rs_1h: -0.238% · rs_4h: -0.152% · rs_1d: -1.04% · rs_3d: -0.56% · beta_24h: 1.042 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5452 | rvol_20: 1.83× · zscore_50: 0.356 · trend: 31.91% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5539 | ADX: 17.2 (weak) · Chop: 49.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.875% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.4793
Score SMA
0.4486
Rank
#40
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4643
Rank Norm SMA
0.3702
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4104 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.470% · r1d: -1.40% · r3d: -0.53% · ema21_slope: -0.0172% · dist_ema21: -0.634% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4928 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.941% · rs_1d: -0.81% · rs_3d: -0.42% · beta_24h: 1.926 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4489 | rvol_20: 1.59× · zscore_50: 0.495 · trend: -18.70% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.2877 | ADX: 18.7 (weak) · Chop: 83.7 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.119% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.612%
(0.0139)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.873% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -0.348% | 0.2R | 3.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -1.066% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -1.893% | 1.2R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.181% | 0.7R | -1.893% | 1.2R | 0.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -3.137% | 2.0R | 0.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.343% | 2.7R | -3.137% | 2.0R | 1.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.343% | 2.7R | -4.861% | 3.0R | 0.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.431% | 5.9R | -4.861% | 3.0R | 1.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1967 min
MAE in 1292 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 3.25
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | ||||||||||||||||
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
67%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late | — | near 0.2ATR | 0.51 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.45 | 02/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.70 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.42% | -0.08 | 02/11 12:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
52%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | — | 0.59 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.00% | +0.01 | 02/11 12:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
4h
#486631
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | 0.390 | compression | bear_high |
67%
|
noisy_chop 34% | late 21b -0.4ATR | — | near 0.2ATR | 1.59 | 73% | ↔ -0.07 | above_value | -0.15 | — | #229241 | 0.51 | bear_high | -3.28% | +0.45 |
02/11 07:00
upd 02/11 11:14
|
|
1h
anchor #487323
|
↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.514 | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 4b -1.2ATR | — | — | 1.83 | 90% | ↑ +0.47 | value | -1.23 | — | #229559 | 0.70 | bear_medium_confirmed | -1.42% | -0.08 |
02/11 12:00
upd 02/11 13:11
|
|
15m
#487257
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.474 | volatile_reversal | bear_medium |
52%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid 8b -0.9ATR | — | — | 0.82 | 92% | ↑ +0.24 | above_value | -0.49 | — | #229431 | 0.59 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.00% | +0.01 |
02/11 12:45
upd 02/11 13:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 21b | — | 5.346×ATR | p83 | -0.418×ATR | p29 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 1.748×ATR | p19 | -1.174×ATR | p72 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 8b | — | 2.341×ATR | p41 | -0.896×ATR | p66 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8429
- reason: down_bo width=2.75×ATR dur=51b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.87596028
- tp_price: 0.8273443
- atr:
- score: 0.84295
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T06:12:49.250564
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84295
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1215
- obi_top10 : -0.0336
- micro_price : 0.86082074
- spread_pct : 0.011617
- mid_price : 0.86085
- bid_wall_price : 0.859
- bid_wall_size : 398443.4
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0197
- obi_top5_std : 0.0827
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6831
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.885275
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.865185
- balance_zone_mid:
0.87523
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793462400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793642400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.751
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
51
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8429
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793638800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.865185
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9216
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.4265
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
13
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00730279 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
51
inside_close_ratio
0.9216
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4265
Signaux confirmants (23)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:12 | 0.86207000 | -0.003% |
| 2 | 13:24 | 0.86207000 | -0.003% |
| 3 | 13:35 | 0.86207000 | -0.003% |
| 4 | 13:44 | 0.85534000 | -0.784% |
| 5 | 13:49 | 0.85534000 | -0.784% |
| 6 | 14:05 | 0.85534000 | -0.784% |
| 7 | 14:20 | 0.85780000 | -0.499% |
| 8 | 14:34 | 0.85891000 | -0.37% |
| 9 | 14:49 | 0.85891000 | -0.37% |
| 10 | 14:57 | 0.85891000 | -0.37% |
| 11 | 15:10 | 0.86392000 | +0.211% |
| 12 | 15:21 | 0.86392000 | +0.211% |
| 13 | 15:29 | 0.86392000 | +0.211% |
| 14 | 15:39 | 0.86394000 | +0.213% |
| 15 | 15:47 | 0.86394000 | +0.213% |
| 16 | 15:56 | 0.86394000 | +0.213% |
| 17 | 16:07 | 0.86201000 | -0.01% |
| 18 | 16:15 | 0.86201000 | -0.01% |
| 19 | 16:24 | 0.86201000 | -0.01% |
| 20 | 16:34 | 0.86201000 | -0.01% |
| 21 | 16:43 | 0.86251000 | +0.048% |
| 22 | 16:52 | 0.86251000 | +0.048% |
| 23 | 17:02 | 0.86251000 | +0.048% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6831ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.122
avg -0.020
± 0.083
OBI Top 10
-0.034
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.8609
Micro Price
0.8608
Spread
0.0116%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.8590
Size
398,443.40
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8621 | 0.876 | 0.8273 | 2.5 | 0.7223 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8621
- Stop Loss: 0.876
- Take Profit: 0.8273
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.876 - 0.8621 = 0.0139
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8621 - 0.8273 = 0.0348
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0348 / 0.0139 = 2.5036
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 496.5026 | 100 | 575.9423 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0139
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0139 = 575.54
Taille de position USD = 575.54 x 0.8621 = 496.17
Donc, tu peux acheter 575.54 avec un stoploss a 0.876
Avec un position size USD de 496.17$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 575.54 x 0.0139 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 575.54 x 0.0348 = 20.03
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.03$
Résumé
- Taille de position 575.54
- Taille de position USD 496.17
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.03
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5036
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.04 % | 20.04 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.61 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -1.61 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6785 % | 104.11 % | 9 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8621 | 0.876 | 0.8273 | 2.5 | 0.7223 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8621
- Stop Loss: 0.876
- Take Profit: 0.8273
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.876 - 0.8621 = 0.0139
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8621 - 0.8273 = 0.0348
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0348 / 0.0139 = 2.5036
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.612%
(0.0139)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.873% | 0.5R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -0.348% | 0.2R | 3.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -1.066% | 0.7R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -1.893% | 1.2R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.181% | 0.7R | -1.893% | 1.2R | 0.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.181% | 0.7R | -3.137% | 2.0R | 0.4× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.343% | 2.7R | -3.137% | 2.0R | 1.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.343% | 2.7R | -4.861% | 3.0R | 0.9× | 576 |
| 72h | +9.431% | 5.9R | -4.861% | 3.0R | 1.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1967 min
MAE in 1292 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.