02 Nov 2026 at 13:16:28 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ASTER (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1241.01 ASTER at 0.693$ per unit. Take profit: 0.6767 (2.32 %) & Stop Loss: 0.6992 (0.92 %)

ASTER SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 02 Nov 2026 13:16 → 18:00 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.6928$

Qty 1241.0066 ASTER

Size 859.7694$ (margin 100$) (leverage 9)

Risk Setup

TP 0.6767 (+2.32%)

TP $ 19.98$

SL 0.6992 (-0.92%)

SL $ 7.94$

RR 2.52

Status loss PnL -0.92% / -7.94$ MAE -1.16% MFE +0.67% 0.7R expires 03 Nov 01:16

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 241498)
#34 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 13:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.3782

Quality Score
0.490
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#34 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#34 / 63
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+3
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.92×ATR
4h clear 1.27×ATR
1d near 0.22×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↑ up mid OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
1.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 13:03
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3)

31/10 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

02/11 07:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1)

02/11 12:00

Score : 0 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #7648
Voir snapshot →
bear developing bear_expansion
Strategic bear

0.55

expansion

+2

Operational bear

0.55

expansion

+1

Tactical range

0.25

range

0

Micro range

0.25

range

MTF alignment : 0.85
Stability : 0.63
Transition risk : 0.37
Score contribution (this trade) +3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score 11.1%
Macro broad_risk_off
Local 4h bearish Leadership btc_leading
Legacy leadership : btc
Breadth state deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.271
Δ 4h
▼-0.199
Δ 12h
▼-0.398
Δ 24h
▼-0.156

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m 33.3%
1h 8.3%
4h 6.3%
24h 8.3%
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m 29.2% -0.05%
4h 18.8% -1.88%
24h 16.7% -3.69%
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
54.2%
Expansion
54.2%
Tail ↑
+0.81
Tail ↓
+0.57
Dispersion : 0.192
Universe : 48 (0 vs prev) · ≥ $2.0M
+0 added · -0 removed
Regime confidence : 0.78
Snapshot évalué : 02/11 13:01 · env bear_trend

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1D
Calculé le 01/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4410
Score SMA
0.4470
Rank
#10 / 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8200
Rank Norm SMA
0.7774
Calculé le
01/11/2026 19:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4527 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.01% · r3d: 1.61% · ema21_slope: -0.0804% · dist_ema21: -0.596%
Force Relative 25% 0.5261 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -1.03% · rs_3d: 1.12% · beta_24h: 0.875
Volume 20% 0.1828 rvol_20: 0.57× · zscore_50: -0.789 · trend: -31.78%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4700 ADX: 23.3 (weak) · Chop: 65.9 (range)
Volatilité 10% 0.6656 ATR%: 4.003% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
1H
Calculé le 02/11/2026 13:00
Score brut
0.4902
Score SMA
0.5236
Rank
#34 / 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3782
Rank Norm SMA
0.5699
Calculé le
02/11/2026 13:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4385 r1h: -0.981% · r4h: -1.331% · r1d: -1.07% · r3d: 2.02% · ema21_slope: -0.0120% · dist_ema21: -1.011%
Force Relative 25% 0.4879 rs_1h: -0.541% · rs_4h: -0.300% · rs_1d: -0.03% · rs_3d: 2.04% · beta_24h: 0.851
Volume 20% 0.3383 rvol_20: 1.10× · zscore_50: 0.008 · trend: -18.66%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6036 ADX: 17.2 (weak) · Chop: 43.1 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.627% (optimal 0.3–3 %)
4H
Calculé le 02/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.4833
Score SMA
0.5271
Rank
#39 / 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5824
Rank Norm SMA
0.7113
Calculé le
02/11/2026 11:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4838 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.537% · r1d: -0.64% · r3d: 2.61% · ema21_slope: 0.0223% · dist_ema21: -0.389%
Force Relative 25% 0.5282 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.065% · rs_1d: -0.05% · rs_3d: 2.72% · beta_24h: 0.786
Volume 20% 0.2817 rvol_20: 0.99× · zscore_50: -0.210 · trend: -37.42%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.3315 ADX: 11.4 (weak) · Chop: 70.7 (range)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.232% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.924% (0.0064)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.648% 0.7R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +0.671% 0.7R -0.173% 0.2R 3.9× 24
4h +0.671% 0.7R -0.694% 0.8R 1.0× 48
8h +0.671% 0.7R -1.165% 1.3R 0.6× 96
12h ★ +0.671% 0.7R -1.165% 1.3R 0.6× 144
24h +0.671% 0.7R -1.682% 1.8R 0.4× 288
36h +0.827% 0.9R -1.735% 1.9R 0.5× 432
48h +0.827% 0.9R -2.799% 3.0R 0.3× 576
72h +1.674% 1.8R -3.176% 3.4R 0.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 1963 min MAE in 2133 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 3.63
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bull_high
59%
noisy_chop 31% early near 0.2ATR — 0.59 range_high +0.70% +0.58 31/10 20:00
4h ↓ down range range strong grind compression bear_high
61%
noisy_chop 33% mid — — 0.59 bear_high -3.28% +0.18 02/11 07:00
1h ↔ neutral range range moderate balanced expansion_after_compression bear_medium
56%
noisy_chop 34% late — — 0.70 bear_medium_confirmed -1.42% -0.01 02/11 12:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind volatile_reversal bear_low
34%
noisy_chop 45% late — — 0.55 bear_low_confirmed -1.00% -0.04 02/11 12:45
5m —

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Mom. score Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply RVOL Vol %ile Vol Trend Vol Zone POC ATR LVN VP ref BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à / Updated
1d
#482052
↓ down range range moderate grind 0.405 compression bull_high
59%
noisy_chop 31% early 32b -0.2ATR near 0.2ATR — 0.57 29% ↓ -0.25 above_value -3.25 — #227353 0.59 range_high +0.70% +0.58
31/10 20:00
upd 01/11 19:21
4h
#486690
↓ down range range strong grind 0.344 compression bear_high
61%
noisy_chop 33% mid 21b -0.4ATR — — 0.99 45% ↓ -0.23 above_value -0.03 — #229262 0.59 bear_high -3.28% +0.18
02/11 07:00
upd 02/11 11:18
1h anchor
#487343
↔ neutral range range moderate balanced 0.549 expansion_after_compression bear_medium
56%
noisy_chop 34% late 4b -1.6ATR — — 1.10 61% ↓ -0.20 value -2.22 — #229579 0.70 bear_medium_confirmed -1.42% -0.01
02/11 12:00
upd 02/11 13:12
15m
#487277
↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind 0.510 volatile_reversal bear_low
34%
noisy_chop 45% late 3b -1.8ATR — — 0.74 67% ↓ -0.41 above_value -0.42 — #229452 0.55 bear_low_confirmed -1.00% -0.04
02/11 12:45
upd 02/11 13:03
5m Pas de snapshot
Source : table pivot trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles (donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 32b — 2.922×ATR p8 -0.175×ATR p18
4h ↑ up mid 21b — 4.262×ATR p74 -0.403×ATR p35
1h ↓ down late 4b — 2.773×ATR p60 -1.586×ATR p83
15m ↓ down late 3b — 2.824×ATR p59 -1.789×ATR p93

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.9951
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.03×ATR dur=41b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)
  4. stop_price: 0.69924638
  5. tp_price: 0.67668404
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.92507079172943
  8. exit_rules:
  9. expires_at: 2026-11-03T06:16:19.968391
  10. max_bars: 12
  11. max_bars_tf: 1h
  12. confidence_pre_ob: 0.92507079172943
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
  5. ¸
  6. market_structures
  7. ¸
  8. market_structure_v2
  9. ¸
  10. trend_analyzer_1h
  11. ¸
  12. orderbook_context
  13. obi_top5 : -0.2063
  14. obi_top10 : -0.0034
  15. micro_price : 0.69228222
  16. spread_pct : 0.028893
  17. mid_price : 0.6923
  18. bid_wall_price :
  19. bid_wall_size :
  20. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  21. ask_wall_price : 0.7
  22. ask_wall_size : 454207
  23. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  24. snapshots_count : 5
  25. obi_top5_mean : -0.1758
  26. obi_top5_std : 0.0467
  27. pressure_side : ask
  28. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  29. collection_ms : 7088
  30. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  31. error :
  32. ¸
  33. strategy_details
  34. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  35. strategy_details
  36. balance_zone_top:
    0.703085
  37. balance_zone_bottom:
    0.69457
  38. balance_zone_mid:
    0.6988275
  39. balance_zone_start_time:
    1793498400
  40. balance_zone_end_time:
    1793642400
  41. balance_zone_width_atr:
    2.0328
  42. balance_zone_duration_bars:
    41
  43. balance_zone_quality: tight
  44. balance_zone_maturity: established
  45. balance_zone_confidence:
    0.9251
  46. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  47. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  48. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  49. balance_zone_breakout_time:
    1793638800
  50. balance_zone_breakout_price:
    0.69457
  51. strategy_details
  52. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
    0.9268
  53. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
    1
  54. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
    0.4226
  55. balance_metrics_has_retested:
    
                                                                                                                                
  56. balance_metrics_retest_count:
    0
  57. balance_metrics_touch_upper:
    4
  58. balance_metrics_touch_lower:
    5
  59. regime : bear_high
  60. atr_entry : 0.00418885
  61. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
41
inside_close_ratio
0.9268
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4226

Signaux confirmants (20)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 13:16 0.69280000 0%
2 13:27 0.69280000 0%
3 13:38 0.68960000 -0.462%
4 13:47 0.68960000 -0.462%
5 13:54 0.68960000 -0.462%
6 14:11 0.69031000 -0.359%
7 14:24 0.69031000 -0.359%
8 14:40 0.68983000 -0.429%
9 14:51 0.68983000 -0.429%
10 15:00 0.68983000 -0.429%
11 15:14 0.69298000 +0.026%
12 15:23 0.69298000 +0.026%
13 15:33 0.69298000 +0.026%
14 15:42 0.69206000 -0.107%
15 15:50 0.69206000 -0.107%
16 15:59 0.69206000 -0.107%
17 16:09 0.69284000 +0.006%
18 16:18 0.69284000 +0.006%
19 16:27 0.69284000 +0.006%
20 16:37 0.69284000 +0.006%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↓ ask ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7088ms Confidence avant OB : 93% → 100%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.206
avg -0.176 ± 0.047
OBI Top 10 -0.003

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.6923
Micro Price
0.6923
Spread
0.0289%

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.7000
Size
454,207.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.6928 0.6992 0.6767 2.52 0.6368
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.6928
  • Stop Loss: 0.6992
  • Take Profit: 0.6767

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.6992 - 0.6928 = 0.0064000000000001

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.6928 - 0.6767 = 0.0161

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0161 / 0.0064000000000001 = 2.5156

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
859.7694 100 1241.0066 9.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0064000000000001

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0064000000000001 = 1250

Taille de position USD = 1250 x 0.6928 = 866

Donc, tu peux acheter 1250 avec un stoploss a 0.6992

Avec un position size USD de 866$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1250 x 0.0064000000000001 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1250 x 0.0161 = 20.13

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.13$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1250
  • Taille de position USD 866
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.13
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5156

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.32 % 19.98 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
0.92 % 7.94 $
PNL PNL %
-7.94 $ -0.92
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.9671 % 104.69 % 13
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.6928 0.6992 0.6767 2.52 0.6368
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.6928
  • Stop Loss: 0.6992
  • Take Profit: 0.6767

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.6992 - 0.6928 = 0.0064000000000001

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.6928 - 0.6767 = 0.0161

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0161 / 0.0064000000000001 = 2.5156

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 0.6767
            [entry_price] => 0.6928
            [stop_loss] => 0.69984
            [rr_ratio] => 2.29
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-11-03 00:15:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.924% (0.0064)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.648% 0.7R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +0.671% 0.7R -0.173% 0.2R 3.9× 24
4h +0.671% 0.7R -0.694% 0.8R 1.0× 48
8h +0.671% 0.7R -1.165% 1.3R 0.6× 96
12h ★ +0.671% 0.7R -1.165% 1.3R 0.6× 144
24h +0.671% 0.7R -1.682% 1.8R 0.4× 288
36h +0.827% 0.9R -1.735% 1.9R 0.5× 432
48h +0.827% 0.9R -2.799% 3.0R 0.3× 576
72h +1.674% 1.8R -3.176% 3.4R 0.5× 864
⏱ MFE in 1963 min MAE in 2133 min ✓ Favorable move came first

computed 1 week ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.