Short Trade on FIL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 678.58 FIL at 0.863$ per unit. Take profit: 0.8338 (3.42 %) & Stop Loss: 0.8751 (1.37 %)
02 Nov 2026 at 21:10:57
hyperliquid
FIL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
02 Nov 2026 21:10
→ 05:50
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 0.8633$
Qty 678.578 FIL
Size 585.8164$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.8338 (+3.42%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.8751 (-1.37%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.37%
/ -8.01$
MAE -2.08%
MFE +0.74%
0.5R
expires
03 Nov 09:10
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 242188)
#20 / 65
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 02/11/2026 21:00
score du 02/11/2026 21:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6614
Quality Score
0.479
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#20 / 65
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.37 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#20 / 65
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
82 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.37 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 9.02×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 2.72×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.88×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
02/11 21:00
02/11 21:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 15:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 02/11 19:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7680
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
17.4%
Macro
broad_risk_off
Local 4h
bearish
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
deteriorating
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▼-0.389
Δ 4h
▼-0.113
Δ 12h
▼-0.137
Δ 24h
▼-0.398
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 29.2% |
| 1h | 47.9% |
| 4h | 25.0% |
| 24h | 12.5% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 31.3% | -0.07% |
| 4h | 8.3% | -0.31% |
| 24h | 22.9% | -3.50% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
0.0%
Down ≥1σ
2.1%
Expansion
2.1%
Tail ↑
+0.20
Tail ↓
+0.53
Dispersion :
0.094
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
02/11 21:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3163
Score SMA
0.3109
Rank
#30
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5469
Rank Norm SMA
0.3643
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2343 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -0.75% · r3d: 0.60% · ema21_slope: -0.9725% · dist_ema21: -8.000% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4888 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 1.19% · rs_3d: 1.28% · beta_24h: 2.470 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1751 | rvol_20: 0.55× · zscore_50: -0.785 · trend: -35.22% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5916 | ADX: 25.7 (trend) · Chop: 53.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 8.881% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 21:00
Score brut
0.4790
Score SMA
0.5070
Rank
#20
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6614
Rank Norm SMA
0.5082
Calculé le
02/11/2026 21:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4572 | r1h: -0.974% · r4h: -0.930% · r1d: -1.75% · r3d: -0.06% · ema21_slope: -0.0223% · dist_ema21: -0.581% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4337 | rs_1h: -0.972% · rs_4h: -1.279% · rs_1d: -0.13% · rs_3d: 0.29% · beta_24h: 0.573 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1679 | rvol_20: 0.20× · zscore_50: -0.503 · trend: -48.93% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5174 | ADX: 15.7 (weak) · Chop: 52.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.922% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.4757
Score SMA
0.4523
Rank
#26
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4714
Rank Norm SMA
0.3827
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4476 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 1.574% · r1d: -0.75% · r3d: 0.60% · ema21_slope: -0.0178% · dist_ema21: 0.234% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5652 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 1.927% · rs_1d: 1.19% · rs_3d: 1.28% · beta_24h: 0.751 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2587 | rvol_20: 0.71× · zscore_50: -0.173 · trend: -22.55% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3227 | ADX: 18.3 (weak) · Chop: 79.0 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.079% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.367%
(0.0118)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.631% | 0.5R | -0.373% | 0.3R | 1.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.631% | 0.5R | -0.518% | 0.4R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.631% | 0.5R | -1.110% | 0.8R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.739% | 0.5R | -1.110% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.739% | 0.5R | -2.077% | 1.5R | 0.4× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.712% | 2.0R | -2.993% | 2.2R | 0.9× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.476% | 3.3R | -2.993% | 2.2R | 1.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.476% | 3.3R | -4.716% | 3.5R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +10.129% | 7.4R | -4.716% | 3.5R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1489 min
MAE in 814 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.46
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.97 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.51 | bear_high | -4.00% | +0.12 | 02/11 15:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | range_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.70 | bear_medium | -1.24% | +0.15 | 02/11 19:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_medium |
38%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.63 | range_low | -0.45% | -0.03 | 02/11 20:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489587
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.521 | compression | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid 22b -1.2ATR | — | — | 0.55 | 69% | ↓ -0.49 | above_value | +0.70 | — | #230408 | 0.61 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.97 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:22
|
|
4h
#489448
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | 0.503 | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 31% | early 13b 0.2ATR | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.71 | 42% | ↔ -0.10 | above_value | +0.70 | — | #230408 | 0.51 | bear_high | -4.00% | +0.12 |
02/11 15:00
upd 02/11 19:14
|
|
1h
anchor #489903
|
↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.621 | expansion | range_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 5b 0.3ATR | — | — | 0.41 | 39% | ↔ +0.14 | above_value | +0.29 | — | #230607 | 0.70 | bear_medium | -1.24% | +0.15 |
02/11 19:00
upd 02/11 20:09
|
|
15m
#490178
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.646 | compression | range_medium |
38%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late 6b -1.6ATR | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.55 | 48% | ↓ -0.50 | above_value | +0.29 | — | #230607 | 0.63 | range_low | -0.45% | -0.03 |
02/11 20:45
upd 02/11 21:02
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 22b | — | 5.154×ATR | p79 | -1.229×ATR | p76 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 13b | — | 0.755×ATR | p0 | +0.154×ATR | p11 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 2.476×ATR | p51 | +0.343×ATR | p22 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 6b | — | 3.902×ATR | p88 | -1.567×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8206
- reason: down_bo width=2.41×ATR dur=54b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.87508936
- tp_price: 0.83382661
- atr:
- score: 0.82062285641186
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T14:10:49.745293
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82062285641186
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.01
- obi_top10 : 0.0104
- micro_price : 0.86254433
- spread_pct : 0.011594
- mid_price : 0.86255
- bid_wall_price : 0.86
- bid_wall_size : 477760.6
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.864
- ask_wall_size : 483714.58
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0776
- obi_top5_std : 0.0805
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7112
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.883475
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.865185
- balance_zone_mid:
0.87433
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793480400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793671200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4086
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
54
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8206
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793667600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.865185
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8519
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2482
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
15
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00759357 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
54
inside_close_ratio
0.8519
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2482
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:10 | 0.86330000 | 0% |
| 2 | 21:19 | 0.86330000 | 0% |
| 3 | 21:27 | 0.86330000 | 0% |
| 4 | 22:10 | 0.85980000 | -0.405% |
| 5 | 22:19 | 0.85980000 | -0.405% |
| 6 | 22:26 | 0.85980000 | -0.405% |
| 7 | 22:36 | 0.86048000 | -0.327% |
| 8 | 22:43 | 0.86048000 | -0.327% |
| 9 | 22:51 | 0.86048000 | -0.327% |
| 10 | 22:59 | 0.86048000 | -0.327% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7112ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
82%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.010
avg -0.078
± 0.081
OBI Top 10
0.010
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.8626
Micro Price
0.8625
Spread
0.0116%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.8600
Size
477,760.60
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.8640
Size
483,714.58
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8633 | 0.8751 | 0.8338 | 2.5 | 0.6761 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8633
- Stop Loss: 0.8751
- Take Profit: 0.8338
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.8751 - 0.8633 = 0.0118
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8633 - 0.8338 = 0.0295
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0295 / 0.0118 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 585.8164 | 100 | 678.578 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0118
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0118 = 677.97
Taille de position USD = 677.97 x 0.8633 = 585.29
Donc, tu peux acheter 677.97 avec un stoploss a 0.8751
Avec un position size USD de 585.29$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 677.97 x 0.0118 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 677.97 x 0.0295 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 677.97
- Taille de position USD 585.29
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.42 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.37 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.01 $ | -1.37 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4665 % | 107.29 % | 10 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8633 | 0.8751 | 0.8338 | 2.5 | 0.6761 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.8633
- Stop Loss: 0.8751
- Take Profit: 0.8338
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.8751 - 0.8633 = 0.0118
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.8633 - 0.8338 = 0.0295
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0295 / 0.0118 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.367%
(0.0118)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.631% | 0.5R | -0.373% | 0.3R | 1.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.631% | 0.5R | -0.518% | 0.4R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.631% | 0.5R | -1.110% | 0.8R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.739% | 0.5R | -1.110% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.739% | 0.5R | -2.077% | 1.5R | 0.4× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.712% | 2.0R | -2.993% | 2.2R | 0.9× | 288 |
| 36h | +4.476% | 3.3R | -2.993% | 2.2R | 1.5× | 432 |
| 48h | +4.476% | 3.3R | -4.716% | 3.5R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +10.129% | 7.4R | -4.716% | 3.5R | 2.2× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1489 min
MAE in 814 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.