Short Trade on SOL (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 3.55 SOL at 92.306$ per unit. Take profit: 86.6788 (6.1 %) & Stop Loss: 94.5569 (2.44 %)
03 Nov 2026 at 05:11:31
hyperliquid
SOL
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
03 Nov 2026 05:11
→ 17:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 92.306$
Qty 3.5542 SOL
Size 328.0731$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 86.6788 (+6.1%)
TP $ 20$
SL 94.5569 (-2.44%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.41%
/ -4.61$
MAE -1.77%
MFE +0.13%
0.1R
expires
03 Nov 17:11
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 242801)
#50 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 05:00
score du 03/11/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5602
Quality Score
0.443
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#50 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
60 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#50 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
60 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -2.31×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.99×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
273.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 05:00
03/11 05:00
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 23:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/11 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7712
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
53.5%
Macro
btc_led_risk_off
Local 4h
bullish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▲+0.340
Δ 4h
▲+0.201
Δ 12h
▲+0.248
Δ 24h
▲+0.394
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 62.5% |
| 1h | 89.6% |
| 4h | 72.9% |
| 24h | 16.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 29.2% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 56.3% | +0.42% |
| 24h | 27.1% | -2.41% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.1%
Down ≥1σ
2.1%
Expansion
4.2%
Tail ↑
+0.51
Tail ↓
+0.45
Dispersion :
0.114
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
03/11 05:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3833
Score SMA
0.3693
Rank
#17
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7500
Rank Norm SMA
0.6177
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1539 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -2.69% · r3d: -4.49% · ema21_slope: -0.5965% · dist_ema21: -9.250% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3718 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -0.75% · rs_3d: -3.80% · beta_24h: 1.244 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4827 | rvol_20: 1.55× · zscore_50: 0.692 · trend: 1.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7041 | ADX: 32.9 (trend) · Chop: 46.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4203 | ATR%: 4.739% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.4429
Score SMA
0.5141
Rank
#50
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5602
Rank Norm SMA
0.5229
Calculé le
03/11/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4571 | r1h: 0.541% · r4h: 0.780% · r1d: -2.00% · r3d: -3.21% · ema21_slope: -0.0859% · dist_ema21: -0.079% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4739 | rs_1h: -0.011% · rs_4h: 0.267% · rs_1d: -0.70% · rs_3d: -2.69% · beta_24h: 1.365 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1905 | rvol_20: 0.54× · zscore_50: -0.394 · trend: -42.09% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4709 | ADX: 34.4 (trend) · Chop: 77.3 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.845% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.4638
Score SMA
0.4927
Rank
#22
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6746
Rank Norm SMA
0.5704
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3397 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.096% · r1d: -2.35% · r3d: -3.63% · ema21_slope: -0.2228% · dist_ema21: -2.585% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4406 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.048% · rs_1d: -0.72% · rs_3d: -2.97% · beta_24h: 0.981 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2591 | rvol_20: 0.60× · zscore_50: -0.405 · trend: 2.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6662 | ADX: 35.4 (trend) · Chop: 54.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.677% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.439%
(2.2509)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.459% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.459% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -1.440% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -1.728% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.134% | 0.1R | -1.768% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.663% | 1.1R | -1.768% | 0.7R | 1.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.663% | 1.1R | -6.342% | 2.6R | 0.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.663% | 1.1R | -6.342% | 2.6R | 0.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.403% | 1.8R | -6.342% | 2.6R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1008 min
MAE in 1743 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.29
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.88 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.61 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -2.3ATR | — | 0.87 | bear_high | -3.85% | -0.36 | 02/11 23:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.88 | bear_medium | -1.07% | -0.09 | 03/11 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.84 | range_low | -0.15% | +0.00 | 03/11 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489480
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.559 | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late 36b -2.3ATR | — | — | 1.55 | 76% | ↔ -0.14 | value | -2.68 | — | #230378 | 0.88 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.61 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:16
|
|
4h
#492303
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | 0.378 | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late 24b -1.8ATR | near -2.3ATR | — | 0.60 | 37% | ↑ +0.54 | value | -2.86 | inside | #231556 | 0.87 | bear_high | -3.85% | -0.36 |
02/11 23:00
upd 03/11 03:11
|
|
1h
anchor #493032
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | 0.623 | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early 3b -0.1ATR | — | — | 0.54 | 61% | ↓ -0.70 | value | -2.50 | — | #231879 | 0.88 | bear_medium | -1.07% | -0.09 |
03/11 04:00
upd 03/11 05:09
|
|
15m
#492967
|
↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.470 | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid 5b 1.1ATR | — | — | 1.82 | 76% | ↑ +0.18 | value | -3.08 | — | #231750 | 0.84 | range_low | -0.15% | +0.00 |
03/11 04:45
upd 03/11 05:00
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 36b | — | 7.573×ATR | p83 | -2.326×ATR | p90 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 24b | — | 4.193×ATR | p72 | -1.752×ATR | p83 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.504×ATR | p2 | -0.104×ATR | p9 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 5b | — | 2.599×ATR | p36 | +1.119×ATR | p66 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.6031
- reason: down_bo width=2.95×ATR dur=53b phase=extending|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)|ob:obi_bullish(-0.05)
- stop_price: 94.55686435
- tp_price: 86.67883912
- atr:
- score: 0.75308132692367
- exit_rules:
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T22:11:23.318592
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.75308132692367
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.4086
- obi_top10 : 0.4371
- micro_price : 92.21174578
- spread_pct : 0.001084
- mid_price : 92.2115
- bid_wall_price : 92.1
- bid_wall_size : 55976.48
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.408
- obi_top5_std : 0.0035
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7195
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
95.5725
- balance_zone_bottom:
93.3935
- balance_zone_mid:
94.483
- balance_zone_start_time:
1793512800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1793700000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.95
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
53
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7531
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1793635200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
93.3935
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6038
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
18
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.4723
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
1
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.7386435 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
53
inside_close_ratio
0.6038
bars_since_breakout
18
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4723
Signaux confirmants (8)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:11 | 92.30600000 | 0% |
| 2 | 05:19 | 92.30600000 | 0% |
| 3 | 05:25 | 92.30600000 | 0% |
| 4 | 05:34 | 92.39300000 | +0.094% |
| 5 | 05:41 | 92.39300000 | +0.094% |
| 6 | 05:47 | 92.39300000 | +0.094% |
| 7 | 05:54 | 92.39300000 | +0.094% |
| 8 | 06:02 | 92.39300000 | +0.094% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7195ms
Confidence avant OB :
75%
→
60%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.409
avg 0.408
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
0.437
Microstructure
Mid Price
92.2115
Micro Price
92.2117
Spread
0.0011%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
92.1000
Size
55,976.48
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.306 | 94.5569 | 86.6788 | 2.5 | 69.511 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 92.306
- Stop Loss: 94.5569
- Take Profit: 86.6788
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 94.5569 - 92.306 = 2.2509
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 92.306 - 86.6788 = 5.6272
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.6272 / 2.2509 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 328.0731 | 100 | 3.5542 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 2.2509
Taille de position = 8 / 2.2509 = 3.55
Taille de position USD = 3.55 x 92.306 = 327.69
Donc, tu peux acheter 3.55 avec un stoploss a 94.5569
Avec un position size USD de 327.69$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3.55 x 2.2509 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3.55 x 5.6272 = 19.98
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.98$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3.55
- Taille de position USD 327.69
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.98
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.1 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.44 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.61 $ | -1.41 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.768 % | 72.5 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.306 | 94.5569 | 86.6788 | 2.5 | 69.511 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 92.306
- Stop Loss: 94.5569
- Take Profit: 86.6788
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 94.5569 - 92.306 = 2.2509
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 92.306 - 86.6788 = 5.6272
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 5.6272 / 2.2509 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.439%
(2.2509)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.459% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -0.459% | 0.2R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -1.440% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.134% | 0.1R | -1.728% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.134% | 0.1R | -1.768% | 0.7R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.663% | 1.1R | -1.768% | 0.7R | 1.5× | 288 |
| 36h | +2.663% | 1.1R | -6.342% | 2.6R | 0.4× | 432 |
| 48h | +2.663% | 1.1R | -6.342% | 2.6R | 0.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +4.403% | 1.8R | -6.342% | 2.6R | 0.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1008 min
MAE in 1743 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.