Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2708.82 XPL at 0.0637$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06213 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.06668 (4.65 %)
03 Nov 2026 at 05:15:06
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Nov 2026 05:15
→ 11:15
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.06372$
Qty 2708.8158 XPL
Size 172.6112$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06213 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.31$
SL 0.06668 (-4.65%)
SL $ 8.02$
RR 0.54
Status
loss
PnL
-0.81%
/ -1.39$
MAE -3.11%
MFE +0.48%
0.1R
expires
03 Nov 11:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 242847)
#59 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 05:00
score du 03/11/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2060
Quality Score
0.414
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#59 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.65 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#59 / 64
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.65 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.91×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
balanced
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
recovering
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bullish
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
0.42
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
28.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 05:02
03/11 05:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 23:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/11 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7712
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
53.5%
Macro
btc_led_risk_off
Local 4h
bullish
Leadership
balanced
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
recovering
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▲+0.340
Δ 4h
▲+0.201
Δ 12h
▲+0.248
Δ 24h
▲+0.394
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 62.5% |
| 1h | 89.6% |
| 4h | 72.9% |
| 24h | 16.7% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 29.2% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 56.3% | +0.42% |
| 24h | 27.1% | -2.41% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.1%
Down ≥1σ
2.1%
Expansion
4.2%
Tail ↑
+0.51
Tail ↓
+0.45
Dispersion :
0.114
Universe :
48
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
03/11 05:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2335
Score SMA
0.3587
Rank
#53
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1875
Rank Norm SMA
0.5074
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0918 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -6.51% · r3d: -18.28% · ema21_slope: -0.6516% · dist_ema21: -14.301% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2013 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.57% · rs_3d: -17.59% · beta_24h: 1.708 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4264 | rvol_20: 1.07× · zscore_50: -0.260 · trend: 63.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4688 | ADX: 17.6 (weak) · Chop: 60.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.374% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 05:00
Score brut
0.4139
Score SMA
0.5432
Rank
#59
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2060
Rank Norm SMA
0.5891
Calculé le
03/11/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2701 | r1h: 0.074% · r4h: 1.335% · r1d: -7.66% · r3d: -19.98% · ema21_slope: -0.4288% · dist_ema21: -2.873% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2926 | rs_1h: -0.479% · rs_4h: 0.823% · rs_1d: -6.37% · rs_3d: -19.47% · beta_24h: 1.616 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2135 | rvol_20: 0.61× · zscore_50: -0.216 · trend: -42.25% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8936 | ADX: 53.8 (trend) · Chop: 44.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.981% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.3266
Score SMA
0.5275
Rank
#58
/ 64
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0794
Rank Norm SMA
0.6450
Calculé le
03/11/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1483 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 2.294% · r1d: -8.85% · r3d: -20.29% · ema21_slope: -0.7629% · dist_ema21: -10.391% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2900 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 2.437% · rs_1d: -7.22% · rs_3d: -19.63% · beta_24h: -0.605 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2701 | rvol_20: 0.30× · zscore_50: -0.250 · trend: 15.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7965 | ADX: 35.6 (trend) · Chop: 25.3 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.3613 | ATR%: 4.916% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.645%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.476% | 0.1R | -1.629% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.476% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.476% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.476% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.648% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.235% | 0.3R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.648% | 1.2R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 1.8× | 288 |
| 48h | +5.648% | 1.2R | -5.611% | 1.2R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.574% | 2.5R | -5.611% | 1.2R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1004 min
MAE in 94 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.24
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.85% | -0.98 | 02/11 23:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.49 | bear_medium | -1.07% | -0.73 | 03/11 04:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | — | — | 0.52 | range_low | -0.15% | +0.02 | 03/11 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489634
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.386 | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late 38b -1.6ATR | near -0.9ATR | — | 1.07 | 78% | ↑ +0.35 | below_value | -5.79 | — | #230428 | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:24
|
|
4h
#492405
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.382 | normal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 12b -2.0ATR | — | — | 0.30 | 63% | ↑ +0.21 | below_value | -7.80 | inside | #231604 | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.85% | -0.98 |
02/11 23:00
upd 03/11 03:16
|
|
1h
anchor #493079
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.483 | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid 6b -1.5ATR | — | — | 0.61 | 77% | ↔ -0.13 | below_value | -8.05 | — | #231926 | 0.49 | bear_medium | -1.07% | -0.73 |
03/11 04:00
upd 03/11 05:12
|
|
15m
#493014
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | 0.599 | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early 12b -0.1ATR | — | — | 1.86 | 69% | ↔ +0.10 | below_value | -8.03 | — | #231797 | 0.52 | range_low | -0.15% | +0.02 |
03/11 04:45
upd 03/11 05:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 38b | — | 7.808×ATR | p100 | -1.572×ATR | p89 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 7.061×ATR | p100 | -1.987×ATR | p93 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 6b | — | 1.404×ATR | p4 | -1.458×ATR | p70 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 12b | — | 2.255×ATR | p39 | -0.127×ATR | p8 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.06667532
- tp_price: 0.06212895
- atr: 0.00118133
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T16:15:06+00:00
Details
- rank: 61
- total: 65
- score: 0.2566
- delta_2h: -0.0671
- extension_atr: -1.52
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.2062
- confidence: 0.938
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06372 | 0.06668 | 0.06213 | 0.54 | 0.04259 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06372
- Stop Loss: 0.06668
- Take Profit: 0.06213
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06668 - 0.06372 = 0.00296
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06372 - 0.06213 = 0.00159
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00159 / 0.00296 = 0.5372
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172.6112 | 100 | 2708.8158 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00296
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00296 = 2702.7
Taille de position USD = 2702.7 x 0.06372 = 172.22
Donc, tu peux acheter 2702.7 avec un stoploss a 0.06668
Avec un position size USD de 172.22$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2702.7 x 0.00296 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2702.7 x 0.00159 = 4.3
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.3$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2702.7
- Taille de position USD 172.22
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.3
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5372
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.31 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.65 % | 8.02 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -1.39 $ | -0.81 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.1073 % | 66.89 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06372 | 0.06668 | 0.06213 | 0.54 | 0.04259 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06372
- Stop Loss: 0.06668
- Take Profit: 0.06213
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06668 - 0.06372 = 0.00296
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06372 - 0.06213 = 0.00159
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00159 / 0.00296 = 0.5372
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.645%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.476% | 0.1R | -1.629% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.476% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.476% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +0.476% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 72 |
| 8h | +0.648% | 0.1R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.235% | 0.3R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 0.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +5.648% | 1.2R | -3.107% | 0.7R | 1.8× | 288 |
| 48h | +5.648% | 1.2R | -5.611% | 1.2R | 1.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +11.574% | 2.5R | -5.611% | 1.2R | 2.1× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 1004 min
MAE in 94 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.