Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2656.19 XPL at 0.0643$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06269 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.06731 (4.68 %)
03 Nov 2026 at 07:15:13
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Nov 2026 07:15
→ 13:15
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.0643$
Qty 2656.1924 XPL
Size 170.7905$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06269 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.28$
SL 0.06731 (-4.68%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.53
Status
win
PnL
+0.60%
/ +1.03$
MAE -2.16%
MFE +1.54%
0.3R
expires
03 Nov 13:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 242977)
#49 / 65
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 07:00
score du 03/11/2026 07:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1811
Quality Score
0.469
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#49 / 65
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+4
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#49 / 65
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+10
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.91×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
alts_leading
NO
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
expanding
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+4
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
bullish
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
0.96
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
31.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 07:02
03/11 07:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 02/11 23:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/11 05:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7720
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
0.55 |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+4
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
76.1%
Macro
btc_led_risk_off
Local 4h
bullish
Leadership
alts_leading
Legacy leadership :
alts
Breadth state
expanding
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
▲+0.080
Δ 4h
▲+0.407
Δ 12h
▲+0.240
Δ 24h
▲+0.504
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 52.2% |
| 1h | 69.6% |
| 4h | 89.1% |
| 24h | 28.3% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 65.2% | +0.02% |
| 4h | 80.4% | +0.96% |
| 24h | 47.8% | -1.00% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
13.0%
Down ≥1σ
2.2%
Expansion
15.2%
Tail ↑
+0.51
Tail ↓
+0.54
Dispersion :
0.162
Universe :
46
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
03/11 07:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2335
Score SMA
0.3587
Rank
#53
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1875
Rank Norm SMA
0.5074
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0918 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -6.51% · r3d: -18.28% · ema21_slope: -0.6516% · dist_ema21: -14.301% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2013 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.57% · rs_3d: -17.59% · beta_24h: 1.708 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4264 | rvol_20: 1.07× · zscore_50: -0.260 · trend: 63.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4688 | ADX: 17.6 (weak) · Chop: 60.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.374% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 07:00
Score brut
0.4687
Score SMA
0.5426
Rank
#49
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1811
Rank Norm SMA
0.5860
Calculé le
03/11/2026 07:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2792 | r1h: 1.584% · r4h: 0.552% · r1d: -7.72% · r3d: -20.12% · ema21_slope: -0.4140% · dist_ema21: -1.573% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3614 | rs_1h: 1.600% · rs_4h: 0.183% · rs_1d: -6.72% · rs_3d: -19.47% · beta_24h: 1.672 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6093 | rvol_20: 2.13× · zscore_50: 1.171 · trend: 3.12% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8455 | ADX: 50.8 (trend) · Chop: 47.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.007% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 07:00
Score brut
0.3163
Score SMA
0.5247
Rank
#64
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0711
Rank Norm SMA
0.6373
Calculé le
03/11/2026 07:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2030 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.552% · r1d: -7.72% · r3d: -20.12% · ema21_slope: -0.7745% · dist_ema21: -9.079% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2541 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.183% · rs_1d: -6.72% · rs_3d: -19.47% · beta_24h: -0.670 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3038 | rvol_20: 0.66× · zscore_50: 0.020 · trend: 8.07% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8051 | ADX: 36.6 (trend) · Chop: 25.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4024 | ATR%: 4.793% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.681%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.023% | 0.0R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.201% | 0.3R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +1.544% | 0.3R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.126% | 0.5R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.911% | 0.6R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.499% | 1.4R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 3.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +6.499% | 1.4R | -4.658% | 1.0R | 1.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.372% | 2.6R | -4.658% | 1.0R | 2.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 884 min
MAE in 19 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.53
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.85% | -0.98 | 02/11 23:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.49 | bear_medium | -0.96% | -0.74 | 03/11 05:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | — | 0.52 | range_low | -0.06% | +0.16 | 03/11 06:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489634
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.386 | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late 38b -1.6ATR | near -0.9ATR | — | 1.07 | 78% | ↑ +0.35 | below_value | -5.79 | — | #230428 | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:24
|
|
4h
#492405
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.382 | normal | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late 12b -2.0ATR | — | — | 0.30 | 63% | ↑ +0.21 | below_value | -7.80 | inside | #231604 | 0.54 | bear_high | -3.85% | -0.98 |
02/11 23:00
upd 03/11 03:16
|
|
1h
anchor #493414
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.482 | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid 7b -1.8ATR | — | — | 0.26 | 46% | ↓ -0.32 | below_value | -8.60 | — | #232057 | 0.49 | bear_medium | -0.96% | -0.74 |
03/11 05:00
upd 03/11 06:10
|
|
15m
#493688
|
↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | 0.595 | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early 6b 0.9ATR | — | — | 5.47 | 97% | ↑ +0.70 | below_value | -8.60 | — | #232057 | 0.52 | range_low | -0.06% | +0.16 |
03/11 06:45
upd 03/11 07:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 38b | — | 7.808×ATR | p100 | -1.572×ATR | p89 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 7.061×ATR | p100 | -1.987×ATR | p93 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 7b | — | 1.079×ATR | p2 | -1.76×ATR | p76 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 1.91×ATR | p23 | +0.903×ATR | p47 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.06731083
- tp_price: 0.06269152
- atr: 0.00120473
- expires_at: 2026-11-03T18:15:13+00:00
Details
- rank: 63
- total: 65
- score: 0.2618
- delta_2h: -0.0083
- extension_atr: -0.81
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1479
- confidence: 0.969
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:15 | 0.06429900 | -0.002% |
| 2 | 09:15 | 0.06458700 | +0.446% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0643 | 0.06731 | 0.06269 | 0.53 | 0.04369 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.0643
- Stop Loss: 0.06731
- Take Profit: 0.06269
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06731 - 0.0643 = 0.00301
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0643 - 0.06269 = 0.00161
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00161 / 0.00301 = 0.5349
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170.7905 | 100 | 2656.1924 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00301
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00301 = 2657.81
Taille de position USD = 2657.81 x 0.0643 = 170.9
Donc, tu peux acheter 2657.81 avec un stoploss a 0.06731
Avec un position size USD de 170.9$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2657.81 x 0.00301 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2657.81 x 0.00161 = 4.28
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.28$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2657.81
- Taille de position USD 170.9
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.28
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5349
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.28 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.68 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 1.03 $ | 0.60 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.1602 % | 46.15 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0643 | 0.06731 | 0.06269 | 0.53 | 0.04369 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.0643
- Stop Loss: 0.06731
- Take Profit: 0.06269
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06731 - 0.0643 = 0.00301
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0643 - 0.06269 = 0.00161
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00161 / 0.00301 = 0.5349
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.681%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.023% | 0.0R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.201% | 0.3R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +1.544% | 0.3R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.126% | 0.5R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h | +2.911% | 0.6R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.499% | 1.4R | -2.160% | 0.5R | 3.0× | 288 |
| 48h | +6.499% | 1.4R | -4.658% | 1.0R | 1.4× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.372% | 2.6R | -4.658% | 1.0R | 2.7× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 884 min
MAE in 19 min
✗ Adverse move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.