Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 2801.08 XPL at 0.0641$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06249 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.06695 (4.46 %)
03 Nov 2026 at 13:15:16
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Nov 2026 13:15
→ 18:50
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.06409$
Qty 2801.0812 XPL
Size 179.5213$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06249 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.48$
SL 0.06695 (-4.46%)
SL $ 8.01$
RR 0.56
Status
win
PnL
+2.50%
/ +4.48$
MAE -1.40%
MFE +2.59%
0.6R
expires
03 Nov 19:15
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 243481)
#60 / 60
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 13:00
score du 03/11/2026 13:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0784
Quality Score
0.318
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#60 / 60
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.46 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#60 / 60
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.46 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.85×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.91×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc_leading
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
stable
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.19
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
30.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 13:02
03/11 13:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 03/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/11 12:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7744
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
46.5%
Macro
btc_defensive
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→+0.031
Δ 4h
▼-0.376
Δ 12h
▲+0.132
Δ 24h
▲+0.354
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 55.8% |
| 1h | 20.9% |
| 4h | 39.5% |
| 24h | 69.8% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 62.8% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 27.9% | -0.19% |
| 24h | 58.1% | +1.24% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.3%
Down ≥1σ
4.7%
Expansion
7.0%
Tail ↑
+0.41
Tail ↓
+0.67
Dispersion :
0.138
Universe :
43
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
03/11 13:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.2335
Score SMA
0.3587
Rank
#53
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1875
Rank Norm SMA
0.5074
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0918 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -6.51% · r3d: -18.28% · ema21_slope: -0.6516% · dist_ema21: -14.301% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2013 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -4.57% · rs_3d: -17.59% · beta_24h: 1.708 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4264 | rvol_20: 1.07× · zscore_50: -0.260 · trend: 63.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4688 | ADX: 17.6 (weak) · Chop: 60.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 11.374% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 13:00
Score brut
0.3179
Score SMA
0.5346
Rank
#60
/ 60
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0784
Rank Norm SMA
0.5654
Calculé le
03/11/2026 13:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1973 | r1h: -0.628% · r4h: -1.505% · r1d: -6.56% · r3d: -21.03% · ema21_slope: -0.2256% · dist_ema21: -1.920% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2247 | rs_1h: -0.516% · rs_4h: -1.855% · rs_1d: -7.21% · rs_3d: -20.98% · beta_24h: 1.603 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1706 | rvol_20: 0.27× · zscore_50: -0.440 · trend: -54.43% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6165 | ADX: 40.8 (trend) · Chop: 65.8 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.906% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.2907
Score SMA
0.5200
Rank
#63
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0234
Rank Norm SMA
0.6263
Calculé le
03/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.1452 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.611% · r1d: -8.05% · r3d: -21.29% · ema21_slope: -0.7958% · dist_ema21: -8.836% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1833 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -1.361% · rs_1d: -8.26% · rs_3d: -21.43% · beta_24h: -0.901 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2354 | rvol_20: 0.31× · zscore_50: -0.247 · trend: -11.10% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7434 | ADX: 37.6 (trend) · Chop: 46.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.4272 | ATR%: 4.719% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.463%
(0.0029)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.379% | 0.3R | -0.179% | 0.0R | 7.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.805% | 0.4R | -0.179% | 0.0R | 10.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.805% | 0.4R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.593% | 0.6R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 1.9× | 72 |
| 8h | +5.318% | 1.2R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 3.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +6.193% | 1.4R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 4.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.193% | 1.4R | -5.001% | 1.1R | 1.2× | 288 |
| 48h | +10.173% | 2.3R | -5.001% | 1.1R | 2.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.085% | 2.7R | -5.001% | 1.1R | 2.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 524 min
MAE in 1259 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 5.75
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | — | 0.54 | bear_high | -2.65% | -0.98 | 03/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | 0.48 | range_medium | -0.21% | -0.54 | 03/11 12:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.57 | range_low | +0.47% | -0.23 | 03/11 12:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489634
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.386 | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late 38b -1.6ATR | near -0.9ATR | — | 1.07 | 78% | ↑ +0.35 | below_value | -5.79 | — | #230428 | 0.54 | bear_high | -1.23% | -0.88 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:24
|
|
4h
#495238
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.383 | normal | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late 14b -2.3ATR | — | — | 0.31 | 65% | ↔ -0.00 | below_value | -8.14 | inside | #232771 | 0.54 | bear_high | -2.65% | -0.98 |
03/11 07:00
upd 03/11 11:16
|
|
1h
anchor #495886
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.493 | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early 6b -1.1ATR | — | — | 0.27 | 42% | ↓ -0.22 | below_value | -8.79 | — | #233082 | 0.48 | range_medium | -0.21% | -0.54 |
03/11 12:00
upd 03/11 13:11
|
|
15m
#495824
|
↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | 0.495 | normal | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 7b -0.6ATR | near 0.5ATR | — | 1.55 | 68% | ↔ +0.13 | below_value | -7.98 | — | #232960 | 0.57 | range_low | +0.47% | -0.23 |
03/11 12:45
upd 03/11 13:03
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 38b | — | 7.808×ATR | p100 | -1.572×ATR | p89 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 14b | — | 7.375×ATR | p100 | -2.325×ATR | p97 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 1.604×ATR | p15 | -1.116×ATR | p60 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 1.347×ATR | p9 | -0.588×ATR | p30 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.06694604
- tp_price: 0.06248775
- atr: 0.00114242
- expires_at: 2026-11-04T00:15:16+00:00
Details
- rank: 63
- total: 64
- score: 0.1628
- delta_2h: -0.037
- extension_atr: -0.63
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0763
- confidence: 0.984
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06409 | 0.06695 | 0.06249 | 0.56 | 0.04459 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06409
- Stop Loss: 0.06695
- Take Profit: 0.06249
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06695 - 0.06409 = 0.00286
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06409 - 0.06249 = 0.0016
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0016 / 0.00286 = 0.5594
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179.5213 | 100 | 2801.0812 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00286
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00286 = 2797.2
Taille de position USD = 2797.2 x 0.06409 = 179.27
Donc, tu peux acheter 2797.2 avec un stoploss a 0.06695
Avec un position size USD de 179.27$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2797.2 x 0.00286 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2797.2 x 0.0016 = 4.48
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.48$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2797.2
- Taille de position USD 179.27
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.48
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5594
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.48 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.46 % | 8.01 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.48 $ | 2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4012 % | 31.4 % | 16 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06409 | 0.06695 | 0.06249 | 0.56 | 0.04459 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06409
- Stop Loss: 0.06695
- Take Profit: 0.06249
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.06695 - 0.06409 = 0.00286
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06409 - 0.06249 = 0.0016
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0016 / 0.00286 = 0.5594
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.463%
(0.0029)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.379% | 0.3R | -0.179% | 0.0R | 7.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.805% | 0.4R | -0.179% | 0.0R | 10.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.805% | 0.4R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 1.3× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +2.593% | 0.6R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 1.9× | 72 |
| 8h | +5.318% | 1.2R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 3.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +6.193% | 1.4R | -1.401% | 0.3R | 4.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.193% | 1.4R | -5.001% | 1.1R | 1.2× | 288 |
| 48h | +10.173% | 2.3R | -5.001% | 1.1R | 2.0× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.085% | 2.7R | -5.001% | 1.1R | 2.4× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 524 min
MAE in 1259 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.