Short Trade on PONS (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 666.04 PONS at 0.203$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1983 (2.51 %) & Stop Loss: 0.2154 (5.9 %)
03 Nov 2026 at 13:15:17
hyperliquid
PONS
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
03 Nov 2026 13:15
→ 19:10
· 5 hours
Position
Entry 0.2034$
Qty 666.04 PONS
Size 135.4592$ (margin 100$) (leverage 1)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1983 (+2.51%)
TP $ 3.4$
SL 0.2154 (-5.9%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 0.42
Status
win
PnL
+0.22%
/ +0.3$
MAE -2.19%
MFE +1.75%
0.3R
expires
03 Nov 19:15
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 243495)
#57 / 60
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/11/2026 13:00
score du 03/11/2026 13:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1072
Quality Score
0.403
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#57 / 60
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+3
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#57 / 60
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
97 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+9
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
5.90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.32×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | — | — | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
btc_leading
OK
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
stable
NO
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
WOULD SKIP
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+3
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
mixed
NO
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
-0.19
NO
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
WOULD SKIP
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
9.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/11 13:03
03/11 13:03
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 01/11 19:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 03/11 07:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 03/11 12:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #7744
Voir snapshot →
bear
developing
bear_expansion
| Strategic |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+2 |
| Operational |
bear
0.55 |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
0.25 |
transition
0 |
| Micro |
range
0.25 |
range
|
MTF alignment :
0.85
Stability :
0.60
Transition risk :
0.40
Score contribution (this trade)
+3
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
46.5%
Macro
btc_defensive
Local 4h
mixed
Leadership
btc_leading
Legacy leadership :
btc
Breadth state
stable
Δ 15m
→+0.000
Δ 1h
→+0.031
Δ 4h
▼-0.376
Δ 12h
▲+0.132
Δ 24h
▲+0.354
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | 55.8% |
| 1h | 20.9% |
| 4h | 39.5% |
| 24h | 69.8% |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | 62.8% | +0.01% |
| 4h | 27.9% | -0.19% |
| 24h | 58.1% | +1.24% |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
2.3%
Down ≥1σ
4.7%
Expansion
7.0%
Tail ↑
+0.41
Tail ↓
+0.67
Dispersion :
0.138
Universe :
43
(0 vs prev)
· ≥ $2.0M
+0 added
·
-0 removed
Regime confidence :
0.76
Snapshot évalué :
03/11 13:01
· env bear_trend
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1D
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.1217
Score SMA
0.2486
Rank
#65
/ 65
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0000
Rank Norm SMA
0.1948
Calculé le
02/11/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0254 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -13.91% · r3d: -12.02% · ema21_slope: -1.7825% · dist_ema21: -25.558% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.0807 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: -11.97% · rs_3d: -11.33% · beta_24h: 4.327 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1503 | rvol_20: 0.58× · zscore_50: -0.935 · trend: -73.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4254 | ADX: 24.2 (weak) · Chop: 72.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.0000 | ATR%: 21.439% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
1H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 13:00
Score brut
0.4034
Score SMA
0.5065
Rank
#57
/ 60
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1072
Rank Norm SMA
0.4018
Calculé le
03/11/2026 13:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2530 | r1h: -0.065% · r4h: -0.135% · r1d: -6.92% · r3d: -11.72% · ema21_slope: -0.3946% · dist_ema21: -2.107% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2999 | rs_1h: 0.047% · rs_4h: -0.485% · rs_1d: -7.57% · rs_3d: -11.68% · beta_24h: 2.635 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1800 | rvol_20: 0.11× · zscore_50: -0.480 · trend: -40.97% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7641 | ADX: 41.6 (trend) · Chop: 48.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.441% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
4H
Calculé le
03/11/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.3284
Score SMA
0.4264
Rank
#61
/ 63
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0239
Rank Norm SMA
0.3069
Calculé le
03/11/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2364 | r1h: 0.000% · r4h: 0.728% · r1d: -12.46% · r3d: -11.91% · ema21_slope: -0.6554% · dist_ema21: -9.309% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1745 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: -0.022% · rs_1d: -12.67% · rs_3d: -12.05% · beta_24h: 3.451 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4855 | rvol_20: 1.58× · zscore_50: 0.056 · trend: 31.67% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6716 | ADX: 20.6 (weak) · Chop: 34.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 0.1600 | ATR%: 5.520% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.900%
(0.0120)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.880% | 0.2R | -1.495% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.745% | 0.3R | -1.495% | 0.3R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.745% | 0.3R | -2.188% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +1.745% | 0.3R | -2.188% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.793% | 0.5R | -2.188% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +6.018% | 1.0R | -5.482% | 0.9R | 1.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.018% | 1.0R | -14.174% | 2.4R | 0.4× | 288 |
| 48h | +8.850% | 1.5R | -14.376% | 2.4R | 0.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.448% | 2.1R | -14.376% | 2.4R | 0.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 529 min
MAE in 1259 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.57
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 44% | — | — | — | — | bear_high | -1.23% | -1.00 | 01/11 19:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | — | 0.41 | bear_high | -2.65% | -0.80 | 03/11 07:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.61 | range_medium | -0.21% | -0.50 | 03/11 12:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | weak | compressed | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.58 | range_low | +0.47% | -0.13 | 03/11 12:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (relation)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Mom. score | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | RVOL | Vol %ile | Vol Trend | Vol Zone | POC ATR | LVN | VP ref | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à / Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1d
#489663
|
↔ | — | — | — | — | — | — | bear_high |
37%
|
noisy_chop 44% | — | — | — | 0.58 | 9% | ↓ -0.37 | below_value | -5.76 | inside | #230441 | — | bear_high | -1.23% | -1.00 |
01/11 19:00
upd 02/11 19:25
|
|
4h
#495280
|
↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | 0.723 | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late 24b -2.0ATR | — | — | 1.58 | 54% | ↑ +0.60 | below_value | -7.02 | inside | #232785 | 0.41 | bear_high | -2.65% | -0.80 |
03/11 07:00
upd 03/11 11:18
|
|
1h
anchor #495900
|
↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | 0.389 | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid 10b -0.9ATR | — | — | 0.11 | 5% | ↔ +0.00 | below_value | -7.36 | — | #233096 | 0.61 | range_medium | -0.21% | -0.50 |
03/11 12:00
upd 03/11 13:12
|
|
15m
#495838
|
↓ down | range | range | weak | compressed | 0.720 | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early 8b -0.1ATR | near 0.5ATR | — | 0.10 | 1% | ↓ -0.86 | below_value | -7.06 | — | #232974 | 0.58 | range_low | +0.47% | -0.13 |
03/11 12:45
upd 03/11 13:04
|
| 5m | Pas de snapshot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source : table pivot
trade_context_snapshots — lit les colonnes SQL réelles
(donc évolue avec les futures features ajoutées à market_context_snapshots).
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 24b | — | 4.156×ATR | p63 | -1.996×ATR | p83 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 10b | — | 2.695×ATR | p56 | -0.886×ATR | p45 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 1.332×ATR | p12 | -0.055×ATR | p6 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.21539129
- tp_price: 0.1982955
- atr: 0.00480452
- expires_at: 2026-11-04T00:15:17+00:00
Details
- rank: 62
- total: 64
- score: 0.2567
- delta_2h: -0.0297
- extension_atr: -0.13
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1051
- confidence: 0.968
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2034 | 0.2154 | 0.1983 | 0.42 | 0.1236 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2034
- Stop Loss: 0.2154
- Take Profit: 0.1983
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2154 - 0.2034 = 0.012
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2034 - 0.1983 = 0.0051
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0051 / 0.012 = 0.425
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135.4592 | 100 | 666.04 | 1.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.012
Taille de position = 8 / 0.012 = 666.67
Taille de position USD = 666.67 x 0.2034 = 135.6
Donc, tu peux acheter 666.67 avec un stoploss a 0.2154
Avec un position size USD de 135.6$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 666.67 x 0.012 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 666.67 x 0.0051 = 3.4
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 3.4$
Résumé
- Taille de position 666.67
- Taille de position USD 135.6
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 3.4
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.425
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.51 % | 3.4 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.9 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.3 $ | 0.22 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.1878 % | 37.08 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2034 | 0.2154 | 0.1983 | 0.42 | 0.1236 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.2034
- Stop Loss: 0.2154
- Take Profit: 0.1983
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.2154 - 0.2034 = 0.012
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.2034 - 0.1983 = 0.0051
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0051 / 0.012 = 0.425
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -5.900%
(0.0120)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.880% | 0.2R | -1.495% | 0.3R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.745% | 0.3R | -1.495% | 0.3R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.745% | 0.3R | -2.188% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +1.745% | 0.3R | -2.188% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 72 |
| 8h | +2.793% | 0.5R | -2.188% | 0.4R | 1.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +6.018% | 1.0R | -5.482% | 0.9R | 1.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.018% | 1.0R | -14.174% | 2.4R | 0.4× | 288 |
| 48h | +8.850% | 1.5R | -14.376% | 2.4R | 0.6× | 576 |
| 72h | +12.448% | 2.1R | -14.376% | 2.4R | 0.9× | 864 |
⏱ MFE in 529 min
MAE in 1259 min
✓ Favorable move came first
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.