Short Trade on AERO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 544.16 AERO at 0.428$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3909 (8.58 %) & Stop Loss: 0.4423 (3.44 %)
28 Jul 2026 at 10:23:07
hyperliquid
AERO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
28 Jul 2026 10:23
→ 11:20
· 56 minutes
Position
Entry 0.4276$
Qty 544.1629 AERO
Size 232.6895$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3909 (+8.58%)
TP $ 19.97$
SL 0.4423 (-3.44%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-3.44%
/ -8$
MAE -4.56%
MFE +0.77%
0.2R
expires
28 Jul 22:23
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 51094)
#53 / 57
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 28/07/2026 10:00
score du 28/07/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6763
Quality Score
0.413
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#53 / 57
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#53 / 57
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.44 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.86×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.01×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.36×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
3.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
28/07 10:17
28/07 10:17
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/07 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 28/07 09:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1118
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
bear
— |
transition
+1 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.73
Transition risk :
0.27
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.59
Snapshot évalué :
28/07 10:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
28/07/2026 10:00
Score brut
0.4133
Score SMA
0.5774
Rank
#53
/ 57
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6763
Rank Norm SMA
0.7592
Calculé le
28/07/2026 10:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3615 | r1h: -2.380% · r4h: -3.503% · r1d: -6.63% · r3d: 3.05% · ema21_slope: -0.0326% · dist_ema21: -2.705% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3776 | rs_1h: -1.496% · rs_4h: -2.883% · rs_1d: -3.25% · rs_3d: 4.88% · beta_24h: 2.653 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2091 | rvol_20: 0.68× · zscore_50: -0.306 · trend: -49.62% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4577 | ADX: 17.0 (weak) · Chop: 61.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.028% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.438%
(0.0147)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -3.623% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.772% | 0.2R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.813% | 0.8R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.11
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.72 | bear_high | -6.19% | -0.96 | 27/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | — | 0.56 | bear_high | -1.23% | +0.48 | 28/07 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | — | 0.48 | bear_medium | -2.26% | -0.01 | 28/07 09:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 52% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.42 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.45% | -0.25 | 28/07 09:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 21b | — | 4.778×ATR | p56 | +0.064×ATR | p7 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 1.907×ATR | p0 | +0.003×ATR | p0 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 2.74×ATR | p41 | -1.246×ATR | p87 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 13b | — | 5.742×ATR | p97 | -2.276×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7787
- reason: down_bo width=2.21×ATR dur=34b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.44231148
- tp_price: 0.39085631
- atr:
- score: 0.77865777919793
- expires_at: 2026-07-29T02:23:00.037872
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.77865777919793
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0184
- obi_top10 : -0.0352
- micro_price : 0.42732348
- spread_pct : 0.117096
- mid_price : 0.42725
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.429
- ask_wall_size : 106234.2
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0079
- obi_top5_std : 0.0147
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7021
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.450825
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.432105
- balance_zone_mid:
0.441465
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785128400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785247200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2115
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
34
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7787
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785243600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.432105
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7941
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.531
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00846478 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
34
inside_close_ratio
0.7941
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.531
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:23 | 0.42761000 | +0.002% |
| 2 | 10:29 | 0.42761000 | +0.002% |
| 3 | 10:35 | 0.42761000 | +0.002% |
| 4 | 10:41 | 0.43209000 | +1.05% |
| 5 | 10:47 | 0.43209000 | +1.05% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7021ms
Confidence avant OB :
78%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.018
avg 0.008
± 0.015
OBI Top 10
-0.035
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.4273
Micro Price
0.4273
Spread
0.1171%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.4290
Size
106,234.20
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4276 | 0.4423 | 0.3909 | 2.5 | 0.43 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4276
- Stop Loss: 0.4423
- Take Profit: 0.3909
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4423 - 0.4276 = 0.0147
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4276 - 0.3909 = 0.0367
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0367 / 0.0147 = 2.4966
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 232.6895 | 100 | 544.1629 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0147
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0147 = 544.22
Taille de position USD = 544.22 x 0.4276 = 232.71
Donc, tu peux acheter 544.22 avec un stoploss a 0.4423
Avec un position size USD de 232.71$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 544.22 x 0.0147 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 544.22 x 0.0367 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position 544.22
- Taille de position USD 232.71
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4966
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 8.58 % | 19.97 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.44 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -3.44 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.6225 % | 105.37 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4276 | 0.4423 | 0.3909 | 2.5 | 0.43 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4276
- Stop Loss: 0.4423
- Take Profit: 0.3909
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.4423 - 0.4276 = 0.0147
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4276 - 0.3909 = 0.0367
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0367 / 0.0147 = 2.4966
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.3909
[entry_price] => 0.4276
[stop_loss] => 0.44377
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-07-28 15:55:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.3909
[entry_price] => 0.4276
[stop_loss] => 0.44524
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-07-28 16:05:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.3909
[entry_price] => 0.4276
[stop_loss] => 0.44671
[rr_ratio] => 1.92
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-07-28 16:10:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.438%
(0.0147)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -3.623% | 1.1R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.075% | 0.0R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.772% | 0.2R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.813% | 0.8R | -4.563% | 1.3R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.