Short Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 222779.17 PENGU at 0.00607$ per unit. Take profit: 0.005998 (1.19 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006106 (0.59 %)
Short Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 222779.17 PENGU at 0.00607$ per unit. Take profit: 0.005998 (1.19 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006106 (0.59 %)
Position
Entry 0.00607$
Qty 222779.1701 PENGU
Size 1352.2696$ (margin 100$) (leverage 14)
Risk Setup
TP 0.005998 (+1.19%)
TP $ 16.04$
SL 0.006106 (-0.59%)
SL $ 8.02$
RR 2
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2884
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 0.50×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.25×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie CatchTheWave. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie CatchTheWave. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 27/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 28/07 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 28/07 11:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
|
5m : 0.770651 15m : 0.652407 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_medium_confirmed 5m_regime : bull_low_confirmed |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3845 | r1h: 0.701% · r4h: -0.440% · r1d: -4.86% · r3d: -1.78% · ema21_slope: -0.1904% · dist_ema21: -1.453% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4684 | rs_1h: 0.305% · rs_4h: -0.263% · rs_1d: -2.81% · rs_3d: -0.45% · beta_24h: 1.087 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2264 | rvol_20: 0.26× · zscore_50: -0.634 · trend: 1.52% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6437 | ADX: 45.7 (trend) · Chop: 67.5 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.078% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.104% | 1.9R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.615% | 2.7R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 1.7× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.680% | 2.8R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 1.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.130% | 5.3R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 3.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.740% | 6.3R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 3.9× | 144 |
computed 3 months ago
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -6.19% | -0.53 | 27/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_high |
45%
|
noisy_chop 36% | mid | — | — | 0.73 | bear_high | -1.58% | +0.04 | 28/07 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.49 | bear_medium | -0.88% | +0.09 | 28/07 11:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | volatile_reversal | bull_medium_confirmed |
54%
|
noisy_chop 49% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.06% | +0.14 | 28/07 11:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 24b | — | 2.927×ATR | p11 | -0.573×ATR | p57 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 4.357×ATR | p63 | -0.848×ATR | p75 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 3.614×ATR | p82 | +2.113×ATR | p98 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 8b | — | 6.607×ATR | p97 | +2.662×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63428.9
0.00652719
63843
0.770651
63756.2
0.00136031
63843
0.652407
64327.7
-0.00755145
63842
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0.005805
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0.6223
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0.3333
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-0.1696
0.4
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2
1
0.6084
0.5111
3.9637
0.55
1.2385
2.4387
-0.1696
0.75
0.3172
0.76
-0.1239
0.4592
0.4869
0.8689
0.3895
-5.2339
3.3397
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:48 | 0.00607000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:54 | 0.00606500 | -0.082% |
| 3 | 12:01 | 0.00608400 | +0.231% |
| 4 | 12:08 | 0.00607400 | +0.066% |
| 5 | 12:14 | 0.00609100 | +0.346% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 10:35:00 | 0.005937 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 11:10:00 | 0.00589 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 11:20:00 | 0.005935 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 11:40:00 | 0.00589 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 12:10:00 | 0.005921 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 12:45:00 | 0.005944 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 13:35:00 | 0.005805 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 14:05:00 | 0.005872 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 14:15:00 | 0.00583 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 15:45:00 | 0.006081 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 04:30:00 | 0.005881 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 06:00:00 | 0.005888 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 07:45:00 | 0.005911 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 08:00:00 | 0.005966 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 09:30:00 | 0.005961 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 11:00:00 | 0.00589 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 11:30:00 | 0.00589 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 12:45:00 | 0.005944 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 13:30:00 | 0.005805 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 15:45:00 | 0.006081 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 18:00:00 | 0.00632 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-26 00:00:00 | 0.006159 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-26 07:00:00 | 0.006483 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-26 15:00:00 | 0.006264 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-26 21:00:00 | 0.006285 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-27 09:00:00 | 0.006493 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 01:00:00 | 0.005836 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 08:00:00 | 0.005966 | ↑ High |
| 2026-07-28 13:00:00 | 0.005805 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-07-28 15:00:00 | 0.006081 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00607 | 0.006106 | 0.005998 | 2 | 0.004858 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006106 - 0.00607 = 3.6E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.00607 - 0.005998 = 7.2E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.2E-5 / 3.6E-5 = 2
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1352.2696 | 100 | 222779.1701 | 14.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 3.6E-5 = 222222.22
Taille de position USD = 222222.22 x 0.00607 = 1348.89
Donc, tu peux acheter 222222.22 avec un stoploss a 0.006106
Avec un position size USD de 1348.89$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 222222.22 x 3.6E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 222222.22 x 7.2E-5 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.19 % | 16.04 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.59 % | 8.02 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.02 $ | -0.59 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9555 % | 161.1 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00607 | 0.006106 | 0.005998 | 2 | 0.004858 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006106 - 0.00607 = 3.6E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.00607 - 0.005998 = 7.2E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 7.2E-5 / 3.6E-5 = 2
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.104% | 1.9R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.615% | 2.7R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 1.7× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.680% | 2.8R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 1.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +3.130% | 5.3R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 3.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.740% | 6.3R | -0.956% | 1.6R | 3.9× | 144 |
computed 3 months ago
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