Short Trade on PENGU (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 47006.29 PENGU at 0.00571$ per unit. Take profit: 0.005566 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.005879 (2.98 %)
29 Jul 2026 at 16:10:05
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
29 Jul 2026 16:10
→ 18:15
· 2 hours
Position
Entry 0.005709$
Qty 47006.2871 PENGU
Size 268.3589$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.005566 (+2.5%)
TP $ 6.72$
SL 0.005879 (-2.98%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 0.84
Status
loss
PnL
-0.79%
/ -2.12$
MAE -0.96%
MFE +1.00%
0.3R
expires
29 Jul 18:20
Exit
rank_decay: short rank=39 <= threshold=42/52
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 52653)
#41 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 16:00
score du 29/07/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1574
Quality Score
0.446
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#41 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#41 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.10×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.37×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, leadership aligné et breadth state aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+1
OK
seuil : ≥ +3
Breadth Leadership
N/A
attendu : btc_leading
Breadth State
N/A
attendu : contracting / deteriorating
Décision V5
N/A
regime + leadership
V6 Shadow Analysis
Filtre spécifique à la stratégie momentum_rotation_v2 (side : short) : BTC regime v2 ≥ +3, Local 4h aligné et Median return 4h aligné.
BTC Regime v2 Score
+1
LOW
seuil : ≥ +3
Local 4h
N/A
attendu : bearish
Median return 4h
N/A
attendu : < -1.5
Décision V6
N/A
regime + local 4h + median ret
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 16:02
29/07 16:02
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 28/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/07 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/07 15:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1148
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.70
Transition risk :
0.30
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.57
Snapshot évalué :
29/07 16:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
29/07/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4459
Score SMA
0.4781
Rank
#41
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1574
Rank Norm SMA
0.3326
Calculé le
29/07/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3030 | r1h: -2.814% · r4h: -1.572% · r1d: -5.41% · r3d: -9.61% · ema21_slope: -0.1102% · dist_ema21: -2.734% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2558 | rs_1h: -1.856% · rs_4h: -1.436% · rs_1d: -5.39% · rs_3d: -8.36% · beta_24h: 1.767 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4534 | rvol_20: 1.54× · zscore_50: 0.338 · trend: -2.21% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6691 | ADX: 35.4 (trend) · Chop: 53.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.231% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
2.2h)
Initial Risk: -2.978%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -0.613% | 0.2R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -0.963% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 2.2h ★ | +0.998% | 0.3R | -0.963% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 25 |
| 4h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -1.121% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -3.468% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -3.468% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.08
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.60 | 28/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.73 | range_high | -0.06% | -0.67 | 29/07 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.52 | range_medium | -0.65% | -0.34 | 29/07 15:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
48%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.69 | range_medium | -0.36% | -0.13 | 29/07 15:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 25b | — | 3.036×ATR | p22 | -0.592×ATR | p58 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 6b | — | 2.173×ATR | p3 | -0.458×ATR | p48 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 1b | — | 2.122×ATR | p43 | -1.221×ATR | p89 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -1.902×ATR | p94 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.00587919
- tp_price: 0.00556627
- atr: 6.807E-5
- expires_at: 2026-07-30T02:10:05+00:00
Details
- rank: 44
- total: 50
- score: 0.303
- delta_2h: -0.1015
- extension_atr: -1.94
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.1574
- confidence: 0.878
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.005709 | 0.005879 | 0.005566 | 0.84 | 0.006081 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.005709
- Stop Loss: 0.005879
- Take Profit: 0.005566
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.005879 - 0.005709 = 0.00017
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.005709 - 0.005566 = 0.000143
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000143 / 0.00017 = 0.8412
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 268.3589 | 100 | 47006.2871 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00017
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00017 = 47058.82
Taille de position USD = 47058.82 x 0.005709 = 268.66
Donc, tu peux acheter 47058.82 avec un stoploss a 0.005879
Avec un position size USD de 268.66$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 47058.82 x 0.00017 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 47058.82 x 0.000143 = 6.73
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 6.73$
Résumé
- Taille de position 47058.82
- Taille de position USD 268.66
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 6.73
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.8412
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 6.72 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.98 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -2.12 $ | -0.79 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9634 % | 32.35 % | 8 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.005709 | 0.005879 | 0.005566 | 0.84 | 0.006081 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.005709
- Stop Loss: 0.005879
- Take Profit: 0.005566
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.005879 - 0.005709 = 0.00017
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.005709 - 0.005566 = 0.000143
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000143 / 0.00017 = 0.8412
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
2.2h)
Initial Risk: -2.978%
(0.0002)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -0.613% | 0.2R | 1.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -0.963% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 2.2h ★ | +0.998% | 0.3R | -0.963% | 0.3R | 1.0× | 25 |
| 4h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -1.121% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -3.468% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.998% | 0.3R | -3.468% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.