Short Trade on HYPE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 6.21 HYPE at 53.683$ per unit. Take profit: 50.4642 (6 %) & Stop Loss: 54.9705 (2.4 %)
29 Jul 2026 at 16:10:59
hyperliquid
HYPE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Jul 2026 16:10
→ 04:10
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 53.683$
Qty 6.2135 HYPE
Size 333.5613$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 50.4642 (+6%)
TP $ 20$
SL 54.9705 (-2.4%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.14%
/ -0.45$
MAE -1.15%
MFE +1.13%
0.5R
expires
30 Jul 04:10
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 52652)
#9 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 16:00
score du 29/07/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4544
Quality Score
0.536
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#9 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.40 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#9 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.40 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -2.77×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
261.5M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 16:01
29/07 16:01
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 28/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/07 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/07 15:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1148
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
bear
— |
expansion
+1 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.70
Transition risk :
0.30
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.57
Snapshot évalué :
29/07 16:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
29/07/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.5364
Score SMA
0.4688
Rank
#9
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4544
Rank Norm SMA
0.3129
Calculé le
29/07/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.2982 | r1h: -3.526% · r4h: -2.684% · r1d: -3.80% · r3d: -9.64% · ema21_slope: -0.0399% · dist_ema21: -2.899% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2229 | rs_1h: -2.568% · rs_4h: -2.548% · rs_1d: -3.78% · rs_3d: -8.38% · beta_24h: 1.744 |
| Volume | 20% | 1.0000 | rvol_20: 4.56× · zscore_50: 3.795 · trend: 105.49% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6078 | ADX: 22.1 (weak) · Chop: 47.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.358% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.398%
(1.2875)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -0.220% | 0.1R | 5.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -0.220% | 0.1R | 5.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -1.004% | 0.4R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -1.149% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.131% | 0.5R | -1.149% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.718% | 0.7R | -3.292% | 1.4R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.58
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
47%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -2.8ATR | — | 0.49 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.97 | 28/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | 0.63 | range_high | -0.06% | -0.58 | 29/07 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.51 | range_medium | -0.65% | -0.30 | 29/07 15:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.63 | range_medium | -0.36% | -0.28 | 29/07 15:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 22b | — | 5.462×ATR | p81 | -0.893×ATR | p76 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 15b | — | 4.987×ATR | p88 | -0.383×ATR | p38 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 1b | — | 2.898×ATR | p72 | -1.797×ATR | p96 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | -1.987×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8767
- reason: down_bo width=1.79×ATR dur=32b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)
- stop_price: 54.97051146
- tp_price: 50.46422134
- atr:
- score: 0.80669779231219
- expires_at: 2026-07-30T08:10:52.054002
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80669779231219
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.1804
- obi_top10 : -0.1804
- micro_price : 53.44953563
- spread_pct : 0.001871
- mid_price : 53.4495
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2123
- obi_top5_std : 0.0391
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7037
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
55.542
- balance_zone_bottom:
54.255
- balance_zone_mid:
54.8985
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785243600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785355200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.7872
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
32
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8067
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785351600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
54.255
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8438
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.7943
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.72011463 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
32
inside_close_ratio
0.8438
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.7943
Signaux confirmants (54)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:10 | 53.68300000 | 0% |
| 2 | 16:17 | 53.68300000 | 0% |
| 3 | 16:23 | 53.70200000 | +0.035% |
| 4 | 16:29 | 53.70200000 | +0.035% |
| 5 | 16:35 | 53.70200000 | +0.035% |
| 6 | 16:41 | 53.69600000 | +0.024% |
| 7 | 16:47 | 53.69600000 | +0.024% |
| 8 | 16:53 | 53.62400000 | -0.11% |
| 9 | 17:00 | 53.62400000 | -0.11% |
| 10 | 17:07 | 53.24600000 | -0.814% |
| 11 | 17:15 | 53.24600000 | -0.814% |
| 12 | 17:22 | 53.13700000 | -1.017% |
| 13 | 17:29 | 53.13700000 | -1.017% |
| 14 | 17:36 | 53.27800000 | -0.754% |
| 15 | 17:42 | 53.27800000 | -0.754% |
| 16 | 17:49 | 53.30500000 | -0.704% |
| 17 | 17:56 | 53.30500000 | -0.704% |
| 18 | 18:03 | 53.30500000 | -0.704% |
| 19 | 18:09 | 53.55900000 | -0.231% |
| 20 | 18:16 | 53.55900000 | -0.231% |
| 21 | 18:22 | 53.58900000 | -0.175% |
| 22 | 18:28 | 53.58900000 | -0.175% |
| 23 | 18:35 | 53.58900000 | -0.175% |
| 24 | 18:40 | 53.68100000 | -0.004% |
| 25 | 18:46 | 53.68100000 | -0.004% |
| 26 | 18:52 | 53.62500000 | -0.108% |
| 27 | 18:57 | 53.62500000 | -0.108% |
| 28 | 19:04 | 53.62500000 | -0.108% |
| 29 | 19:11 | 53.84200000 | +0.296% |
| 30 | 19:17 | 53.84200000 | +0.296% |
| 31 | 19:24 | 53.83700000 | +0.287% |
| 32 | 19:29 | 53.83700000 | +0.287% |
| 33 | 19:35 | 53.83700000 | +0.287% |
| 34 | 19:41 | 53.94300000 | +0.484% |
| 35 | 19:47 | 53.94300000 | +0.484% |
| 36 | 19:52 | 53.98600000 | +0.564% |
| 37 | 19:58 | 53.98600000 | +0.564% |
| 38 | 20:05 | 53.98600000 | +0.564% |
| 39 | 20:11 | 54.16500000 | +0.898% |
| 40 | 20:17 | 54.16500000 | +0.898% |
| 41 | 20:23 | 54.05000000 | +0.684% |
| 42 | 20:29 | 54.05000000 | +0.684% |
| 43 | 20:35 | 54.05000000 | +0.684% |
| 44 | 20:41 | 53.80700000 | +0.231% |
| 45 | 20:48 | 53.81600000 | +0.248% |
| 46 | 20:53 | 53.81600000 | +0.248% |
| 47 | 20:59 | 53.81600000 | +0.248% |
| 48 | 21:07 | 53.81600000 | +0.248% |
| 49 | 21:13 | 54.22000000 | +1% |
| 50 | 21:19 | 53.84300000 | +0.298% |
| 51 | 21:25 | 53.84300000 | +0.298% |
| 52 | 21:31 | 53.84300000 | +0.298% |
| 53 | 21:37 | 54.22400000 | +1.008% |
| 54 | 21:43 | 54.22400000 | +1.008% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7037ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
88%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.180
avg -0.212
± 0.039
OBI Top 10
-0.180
Microstructure
Mid Price
53.4495
Micro Price
53.4495
Spread
0.0019%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.683 | 54.9705 | 50.4642 | 2.5 | 71.503 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 53.683
- Stop Loss: 54.9705
- Take Profit: 50.4642
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 54.9705 - 53.683 = 1.2875
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 53.683 - 50.4642 = 3.2188
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.2188 / 1.2875 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 333.5613 | 100 | 6.2135 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.2875
Taille de position = 8 / 1.2875 = 6.21
Taille de position USD = 6.21 x 53.683 = 333.37
Donc, tu peux acheter 6.21 avec un stoploss a 54.9705
Avec un position size USD de 333.37$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 6.21 x 1.2875 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 6.21 x 3.2188 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 6.21
- Taille de position USD 333.37
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.4 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.45 $ | -0.14 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1493 % | 47.92 % | 32 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.683 | 54.9705 | 50.4642 | 2.5 | 71.503 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 53.683
- Stop Loss: 54.9705
- Take Profit: 50.4642
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 54.9705 - 53.683 = 1.2875
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 53.683 - 50.4642 = 3.2188
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 3.2188 / 1.2875 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.398%
(1.2875)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -0.220% | 0.1R | 5.1× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -0.220% | 0.1R | 5.1× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -1.004% | 0.4R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.131% | 0.5R | -1.149% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.131% | 0.5R | -1.149% | 0.5R | 1.0× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.718% | 0.7R | -3.292% | 1.4R | 0.5× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
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