Short Trade on XLM (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2129.82 XLM at 0.169$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1601 (5.55 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1732 (2.18 %)
29 Jul 2026 at 16:53:37
hyperliquid
XLM
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Jul 2026 16:53
→ 04:50
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1695$
Qty 2129.8177 XLM
Size 360.9402$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1601 (+5.55%)
TP $ 20.02$
SL 0.1732 (-2.18%)
SL $ 7.88$
RR 2.54
Status
loss
PnL
-1.73%
/ -6.24$
MAE -1.98%
MFE +0.50%
0.2R
expires
30 Jul 04:53
Exit
time_expired
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 52651)
#17 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 16:00
score du 29/07/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5259
Quality Score
0.497
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#17 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.18 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#17 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.18 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.50×ATR |
| 4h | near | -2.16×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.89×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
1.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 16:46
29/07 16:46
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 28/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/07 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 29/07 16:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
29/07/2026 16:00
Score brut
0.4970
Score SMA
0.5142
Rank
#17
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5259
Rank Norm SMA
0.5863
Calculé le
29/07/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3964 | r1h: -1.425% · r4h: -1.018% · r1d: -1.36% · r3d: -5.22% · ema21_slope: -0.0189% · dist_ema21: -1.514% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4124 | rs_1h: -0.466% · rs_4h: -0.882% · rs_1d: -1.34% · rs_3d: -3.96% · beta_24h: 1.105 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4930 | rvol_20: 1.29× · zscore_50: 0.706 · trend: 39.67% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5091 | ADX: 14.7 (weak) · Chop: 52.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.934% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.183%
(0.0037)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -0.714% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.593% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.611% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.982% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.982% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -2.561% | 1.2R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.44
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | strong | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | near -1.9ATR | — | 0.61 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.72 | 28/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | near -2.2ATR | — | 0.56 | bear_high | -1.28% | -0.42 | 29/07 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near -1.5ATR | — | 0.68 | bear_medium | -1.08% | -0.25 | 29/07 16:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | volatile_reversal | bear_medium_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | — | range_medium | -0.75% | -0.08 | 29/07 16:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 25b | — | 4.796×ATR | p67 | -0.715×ATR | p69 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 2.462×ATR | p21 | -1.025×ATR | p80 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 3.071×ATR | p72 | -1.398×ATR | p91 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 3.526×ATR | p69 | -0.851×ATR | p60 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7816
- reason: down_bo width=2.34×ATR dur=44b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.17322619
- tp_price: 0.16007953
- atr:
- score: 0.78163572513629
- expires_at: 2026-07-30T08:53:30.053264
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.78163572513629
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0258
- obi_top10 : 0.0473
- micro_price : 0.16950679
- spread_pct : 0.0059
- mid_price : 0.169505
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.172
- ask_wall_size : 4965892
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0266
- obi_top5_std : 0.0007
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6796
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.17495
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.17118
- balance_zone_mid:
0.173065
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785200400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785355200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3389
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
44
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7816
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785351600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.17118
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8409
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.0609
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00161188 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
44
inside_close_ratio
0.8409
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0609
Signaux confirmants (11)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:53 | 0.16947000 | -0.018% |
| 2 | 16:59 | 0.16947000 | -0.018% |
| 3 | 17:07 | 0.16899000 | -0.301% |
| 4 | 17:14 | 0.16899000 | -0.301% |
| 5 | 17:22 | 0.16993000 | +0.254% |
| 6 | 17:28 | 0.16993000 | +0.254% |
| 7 | 17:36 | 0.16993000 | +0.254% |
| 8 | 17:42 | 0.17020000 | +0.413% |
| 9 | 17:49 | 0.17027000 | +0.454% |
| 10 | 17:55 | 0.17027000 | +0.454% |
| 11 | 18:03 | 0.17027000 | +0.454% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6796ms
Confidence avant OB :
78%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.026
avg -0.027
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.047
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1695
Micro Price
0.1695
Spread
0.0059%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.1720
Size
4,965,892.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1695 | 0.1732 | 0.1601 | 2.54 | 0.1493 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1695
- Stop Loss: 0.1732
- Take Profit: 0.1601
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1732 - 0.1695 = 0.0037
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1695 - 0.1601 = 0.0094
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0094 / 0.0037 = 2.5405
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 360.9402 | 100 | 2129.8177 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0037
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0037 = 2162.16
Taille de position USD = 2162.16 x 0.1695 = 366.49
Donc, tu peux acheter 2162.16 avec un stoploss a 0.1732
Avec un position size USD de 366.49$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2162.16 x 0.0037 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2162.16 x 0.0094 = 20.32
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.32$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2162.16
- Taille de position USD 366.49
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.32
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5405
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.55 % | 20.02 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.18 % | 7.88 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -6.24 $ | -1.73 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9823 % | 90.81 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1695 | 0.1732 | 0.1601 | 2.54 | 0.1493 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1695
- Stop Loss: 0.1732
- Take Profit: 0.1601
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1732 - 0.1695 = 0.0037
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1695 - 0.1601 = 0.0094
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0094 / 0.0037 = 2.5405
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.183%
(0.0037)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -0.714% | 0.3R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.593% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.611% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.982% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.496% | 0.2R | -1.982% | 0.9R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.496% | 0.2R | -2.561% | 1.2R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
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