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Short Trade on BTC

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29 Jul 2026 at 17:10:11 hyperliquid

Short Trade on BTC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 0.017 BTC at 63382$ per unit. Take profit: 62171.1665 (1.91 %) & Stop Loss: 63866.3334 (0.76 %)

BTC SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 29 Jul 2026 17:10 → 18:00 · 49 minutes

Position

Entry 63382$

Qty 0.01652 BTC

Size 1046.9152$ (margin 100$) (leverage 10)

Risk Setup

TP 62171.1665 (+1.91%)

TP $ 20$

SL 63866.3334 (-0.76%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -0.76% / -8$ MAE -1.59% MFE +0.06% 0.1R expires 30 Jul 05:10

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank (id: 52668)
#12 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 17:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.8365

Quality Score
0.562
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#12 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#12 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.76 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -1.31×ATR
4h clear 0.73×ATR
1d clear 1.50×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down mid OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↓ down early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

V5 Shadow Analysis

V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

V6 Shadow Analysis

V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.

Context

Volume 24h (signal)
2.28B $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 17:00
Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

28/07 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

29/07 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1)

29/07 16:00

Score : +6 / ±6

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime

BTC/Market Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) #1149
Voir snapshot →
range ranging range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range

—

range

0

Operational bear

—

expansion

+1

Tactical range

—

range

0

Micro —

—

MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.70
Transition risk : 0.30
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Local 4h unknown Leadership unknown
Breadth state insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—

Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.

% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.57
Snapshot évalué : 29/07 17:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 29/07/2026 17:00
Score brut
0.5621
Score SMA
0.5219
Rank
#12 / 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8365
Rank Norm SMA
0.6939
Calculé le
29/07/2026 17:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4844 r1h: 0.000% · r4h: -0.354% · r1d: -0.50% · r3d: -1.63% · ema21_slope: 0.0092% · dist_ema21: -0.767%
Force Relative 25% 0.5000 rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000
Volume 20% 0.5769 rvol_20: 1.36× · zscore_50: 0.600 · trend: 99.85%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.5092 ADX: 12.6 (weak) · Chop: 50.0 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.724% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.764% (484.3334)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.065% 0.1R -1.123% 1.5R 0.1× 12
2h +0.065% 0.1R -1.123% 1.5R 0.1× 24
4h +0.065% 0.1R -1.123% 1.5R 0.1× 48
8h +0.065% 0.1R -1.590% 2.1R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.065% 0.1R -1.590% 2.1R 0.0× 143
24h +0.065% 0.1R -2.794% 3.7R 0.0× 288

computed 3 months ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.1
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind compression bear_high
57%
noisy_chop 39% early — near -1.0ATR — — — — 28/07 20:00
4h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate grind volatile_reversal bear_high
51%
noisy_chop 37% early — — — — — — 29/07 16:00
1h ↔ neutral range range moderate balanced volatile_reversal bear_medium
48%
noisy_chop 35% mid near -1.3ATR — — — — — 29/07 16:00
15m ↓ down range range strong balanced expansion bear_medium
60%
noisy_chop 40% early — — — — — — 29/07 17:00
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down early 8b — 1.549×ATR p0 -0.067×ATR p8
4h ↓ down early 3b — 1.904×ATR p0 -0.566×ATR p55
1h ↓ down mid 2b — 2.45×ATR p44 -0.902×ATR p75
15m ↑ up early 10b — 0×ATR p0 -0.589×ATR p47

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.8342
  3. reason: down_bo width=1.27×ATR dur=30b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
  4. stop_price: 63866.33338933
  5. tp_price: 62171.16652667
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.93415915638318
  8. expires_at: 2026-07-30T09:10:03.566845
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.93415915638318
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.2101
  10. obi_top10 : 0.2101
  11. micro_price : 63342.47803854
  12. spread_pct : 0.000158
  13. mid_price : 63342.45
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.2252
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0149
  23. pressure_side : bid
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 6948
  26. aggregation_tick : 100
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    64100
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    63545
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    63822.5
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1785254400
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1785358800
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    1.2662
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    30
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.9342
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1785355200
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    63545
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.6
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.3719
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    8
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    7
  54. regime : bear_high_confirmed
  55. atr_entry : 438.33389332
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
30
inside_close_ratio
0.6
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.3719

Signaux confirmants (6)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 17:10 63382.00000000 0%
2 17:17 63452.00000000 +0.11%
3 17:24 63452.00000000 +0.11%
4 17:31 63452.00000000 +0.11%
5 17:51 63535.00000000 +0.241%
6 17:58 63535.00000000 +0.241%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6948ms Confidence avant OB : 93% → 83%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.210
avg 0.225 ± 0.015
OBI Top 10 0.210

Microstructure

Mid Price
63,342.4500
Micro Price
63,342.4780
Spread
0.0002%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
63382 63866.3334 62171.1665 2.5 73397
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 63382
  • Stop Loss: 63866.3334
  • Take Profit: 62171.1665

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 63866.3334 - 63382 = 484.3334

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 63382 - 62171.1665 = 1210.8335

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1210.8335 / 484.3334 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
1046.9152 100 0.01652 10.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 484.3334

Taille de position = 8 / 484.3334 = 0.02

Taille de position USD = 0.02 x 63382 = 1267.64

Donc, tu peux acheter 0.02 avec un stoploss a 63866.3334

Avec un position size USD de 1267.64$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 0.02 x 484.3334 = 9.69

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 9.69$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 0.02 x 1210.8335 = 24.22

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 24.22$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 0.02
  • Taille de position USD 1267.64
  • Perte potentielle 9.69
  • Gain potentiel 24.22
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
1.91 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
0.76 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -0.76
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.9561 % 125.13 % 1
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
63382 63866.3334 62171.1665 2.5 73397
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 63382
  • Stop Loss: 63866.3334
  • Take Profit: 62171.1665

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 63866.3334 - 63382 = 484.3334

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 63382 - 62171.1665 = 1210.8335

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1210.8335 / 484.3334 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 62171.1665
            [entry_price] => 63382
            [stop_loss] => 63914.76674
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-29 22:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 62171.1665
            [entry_price] => 63382
            [stop_loss] => 63963.20008
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-29 22:00:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 62171.1665
            [entry_price] => 63382
            [stop_loss] => 64011.63342
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-29 22:05:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 62171.1665
            [entry_price] => 63382
            [stop_loss] => 64108.5001
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-07-30 01:45:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.764% (484.3334)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.065% 0.1R -1.123% 1.5R 0.1× 12
2h +0.065% 0.1R -1.123% 1.5R 0.1× 24
4h +0.065% 0.1R -1.123% 1.5R 0.1× 48
8h +0.065% 0.1R -1.590% 2.1R 0.0× 96
12h ★ +0.065% 0.1R -1.590% 2.1R 0.0× 143
24h +0.065% 0.1R -2.794% 3.7R 0.0× 288

computed 3 months ago

Commentaires

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