Short Trade on PENGU (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 54813.29 PENGU at 0.00575$ per unit. Take profit: 0.005388 (6.34 %) & Stop Loss: 0.005899 (2.54 %)
29 Jul 2026 at 18:22:45
hyperliquid
PENGU
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
29 Jul 2026 18:22
→ 22:45
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.005753$
Qty 54813.2922 PENGU
Size 315.3409$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.005388 (+6.34%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 0.005899 (-2.54%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.54%
/ -8$
MAE -2.68%
MFE +0.38%
0.2R
expires
30 Jul 06:22
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank (id: 52754)
#39 / 52
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 29/07/2026 18:00
score du 29/07/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1725
Quality Score
0.447
score brut du coin
Quality Rank
#39 / 52
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.54 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#39 / 52
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.54 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -1.15×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.37×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
V5 Shadow Analysis
V5 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
V6 Shadow Analysis
V6 ne s'applique pas à la stratégie BalanceBreakoutRegime. Scope initial : momentum_pullback_v1, momentum_rotation_score, momentum_rotation_v2.
Context
Volume 24h (signal)
2.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
29/07 18:16
29/07 18:16
| Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 28/07 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 29/07 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 29/07 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime |
|---|---|
BTC/Market Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) #1150
Voir snapshot →
range
ranging
range_bound
| Strategic |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Operational |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Tactical |
range
— |
range
0 |
| Micro |
—
— |
|
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.70
Transition risk :
0.30
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Local 4h
unknown
Leadership
unknown
Breadth state
insufficient_history
Δ 15m
·—
Δ 1h
·—
Δ 4h
·—
Δ 12h
·—
Δ 24h
·—
Δ 24h négatif avec Δ 1h positif = rebond court dans structure 24h faible.
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Expansion & Tails (4h)
Up ≥1σ
—
Down ≥1σ
—
Expansion
—
Tail ↑
—
Tail ↓
—
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.82
Snapshot évalué :
29/07 18:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
29/07/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.4473
Score SMA
0.4756
Rank
#39
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1725
Rank Norm SMA
0.3187
Calculé le
29/07/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3415 | r1h: 0.440% · r4h: -2.479% · r1d: -5.04% · r3d: -9.68% · ema21_slope: -0.1339% · dist_ema21: -2.167% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3684 | rs_1h: 0.380% · rs_4h: -1.360% · rs_1d: -4.40% · rs_3d: -7.69% · beta_24h: 1.590 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2152 | rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -0.450 · trend: -16.10% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7311 | ADX: 36.5 (trend) · Chop: 47.3 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.247% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.538%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -0.209% | 0.1R | 1.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -0.400% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -2.138% | 0.8R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -2.677% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.382% | 0.2R | -2.677% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -7.214% | 2.8R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.88
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.75 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.60 | 28/07 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | expansion | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.73 | bear_high_confirmed | -1.56% | -0.69 | 29/07 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | 0.53 | bear_medium | -1.10% | -0.29 | 29/07 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | — | — | range_low | -0.73% | -0.06 | 29/07 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 25b | — | 3.036×ATR | p22 | -0.592×ATR | p58 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 3.19×ATR | p56 | -1.069×ATR | p86 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 2.644×ATR | p62 | -1.035×ATR | p84 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 0.523×ATR | p6 | -0.175×ATR | p22 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8314
- reason: down_bo width=2.50×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.00589895
- tp_price: 0.00538812
- atr:
- score: 0.83143780440547
- expires_at: 2026-07-30T10:22:37.824798
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83143780440547
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.025
- obi_top10 : -0.023
- micro_price : 0.00576023
- spread_pct : 0.017361
- mid_price : 0.0057605
- bid_wall_price : 0.00574
- bid_wall_size : 41940681
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.00585
- ask_wall_size : 40966642
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0263
- obi_top5_std : 0.0017
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6914
- aggregation_tick : 1.0E-5
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.005979
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.005805
- balance_zone_mid:
0.005892
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785225600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785362400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5033
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
39
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8314
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785351600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.005805
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
3
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.7481
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 6.951E-5 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.6667
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
0.7481
Signaux confirmants (32)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:22 | 0.00575300 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:28 | 0.00575300 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:35 | 0.00575300 | 0% |
| 4 | 18:40 | 0.00574900 | -0.07% |
| 5 | 18:46 | 0.00574900 | -0.07% |
| 6 | 18:52 | 0.00574600 | -0.122% |
| 7 | 18:58 | 0.00574600 | -0.122% |
| 8 | 19:05 | 0.00574600 | -0.122% |
| 9 | 19:11 | 0.00574500 | -0.139% |
| 10 | 19:17 | 0.00574500 | -0.139% |
| 11 | 19:24 | 0.00573300 | -0.348% |
| 12 | 19:29 | 0.00573300 | -0.348% |
| 13 | 19:36 | 0.00573300 | -0.348% |
| 14 | 19:41 | 0.00573500 | -0.313% |
| 15 | 19:47 | 0.00573500 | -0.313% |
| 16 | 19:53 | 0.00575000 | -0.052% |
| 17 | 19:58 | 0.00575000 | -0.052% |
| 18 | 20:05 | 0.00575000 | -0.052% |
| 19 | 20:11 | 0.00576700 | +0.243% |
| 20 | 20:17 | 0.00576700 | +0.243% |
| 21 | 20:23 | 0.00577000 | +0.295% |
| 22 | 20:29 | 0.00577000 | +0.295% |
| 23 | 20:36 | 0.00577000 | +0.295% |
| 24 | 20:41 | 0.00576100 | +0.139% |
| 25 | 20:48 | 0.00574800 | -0.087% |
| 26 | 20:53 | 0.00574800 | -0.087% |
| 27 | 21:00 | 0.00574800 | -0.087% |
| 28 | 21:07 | 0.00574800 | -0.087% |
| 29 | 21:13 | 0.00579500 | +0.73% |
| 30 | 21:20 | 0.00577300 | +0.348% |
| 31 | 21:25 | 0.00577300 | +0.348% |
| 32 | 21:31 | 0.00577300 | +0.348% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6914ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.025
avg -0.026
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
-0.023
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0058
Micro Price
0.0058
Spread
0.0174%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0057
Size
41,940,681.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0059
Size
40,966,642.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.005753 | 0.005899 | 0.005388 | 2.5 | 0.006408 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.005753
- Stop Loss: 0.005899
- Take Profit: 0.005388
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.005899 - 0.005753 = 0.000146
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.005753 - 0.005388 = 0.000365
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000365 / 0.000146 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 315.3409 | 100 | 54813.2922 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.000146
Taille de position = 8 / 0.000146 = 54794.52
Taille de position USD = 54794.52 x 0.005753 = 315.23
Donc, tu peux acheter 54794.52 avec un stoploss a 0.005899
Avec un position size USD de 315.23$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 54794.52 x 0.000146 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 54794.52 x 0.000365 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 54794.52
- Taille de position USD 315.23
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.34 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.54 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -2.54 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.6769 % | 105.48 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.005753 | 0.005899 | 0.005388 | 2.5 | 0.006408 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.005753
- Stop Loss: 0.005899
- Take Profit: 0.005388
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.005899 - 0.005753 = 0.000146
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.005753 - 0.005388 = 0.000365
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.000365 / 0.000146 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.538%
(0.0001)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -0.209% | 0.1R | 1.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -0.400% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -2.138% | 0.8R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -2.677% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.382% | 0.2R | -2.677% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.382% | 0.2R | -7.214% | 2.8R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 3 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.